September 16, 2015

NFL Pick 'Em, Week 2: Teddy Bridgewater Fail Mary Edition: This week's games begin Thursday night with Denver at Kansas City, so it's time to make your picks for a chance to win an official NFL game football signed by Roger Goodell or his successor (fingers crossed). NoMich is in first with 22 points, scoring 6 on a stone cold lead pipe lock of Carolina over Jacksonville by 10 (1 off the actual margin). Holden had the game of the week by picking Miami over Washington by 7 as a stone cold lead pipe lock (worth 9 points!). New players are welcome to join.

posted by rcade to football at 09:04 PM - 32 comments

How This Works

For this year's NFL Pick 'Em contest, SportsFilter is giving away a prize to the season's winner: An official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

We're using the same rules as the CFL Chicobangs Memorial, with one twist.

Pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 1 point
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 2 points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 3 points
Didn't pick the winner, but nailed the spread? You get 1 point

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game. Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Jacksonville by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Jacksonville by 202 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Jacksonville by 101 point (winner only)
Jacksonville by 153 points (winner + nailed spread)
Carolina by 151 point (nailed spread only)
Carolina by 430 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose one game a week to be your Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock. This triples the points you win for that game, but if that team loses, you lose 3 points (even if you get the spread). You're not required to pick a lock each week.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Scores After Week 1

nomich22
holden21
rcade20
yerfatma20
bender19
tahoemoj18
jagsnumberone17
howard_t16
forrestv16
ufez jones16
jjzucal15
ic23b14
cixelsyd12
goyocolts12
tommytrump12
goddam12
owlhouse12
algorithm12
grum@work11
billsaysthis10
tron79
ying yang mafia9
rumple8

To see a spreadsheet showing how scores were determined, visit this Google Docs link.

This Week's Games

Denver at Kansas City
New England at Buffalo
Arizona at Chicago
San Diego at Cincinnati
Tennessee at Cleveland
Detroit at Minnesota
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Atlanta at New York Giants
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
St. Louis at Washington
Houston at Carolina
Baltimore at Oakland
Miami at Jacksonville
Dallas at Philadelphia
Seattle at Green Bay
New York Jets at Indianapolis

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade at 09:04 PM on September 16

I've written a Java program to do the scorekeeping. You can use this Google Docs link to see a spreadsheet of how each of your picks was scored and make sure it is correct.

I just found that scores for games where you missed the pick but nailed the spread are not included in your totals. I'll update the post and spreadsheet when that's fixed.

The rules won't be posted each week. I included them this time in case a few more people want to play.

Six players lost their locks -- five by choosing Indianapolis over Buffalo (Rumple, Goyoucolts, Tommytrump, Billsaysthis and Ying Yang Mafia) and one with Tampa Bay over Tennessee (Tron7).

I will be improving the presentation of weekly results. Right now it looks like Eli Manning's clock management.

posted by rcade at 09:31 PM on September 16

Denver by 11

New England by 21

Chicago by 8

Cincinnati by 6

Cleveland by 2

Detroit by 16

New Orleans by 16

Atlanta by 4

Pittsburgh by 14

St. Louis by 11

Houston by 5

Baltimore by 15

Miami by 13

Dallas by 2

Seattle by 4

Indianapolis by 14

posted by tommytrump at 09:32 PM on September 16

Kansas City by 7
New England by 6
Arizona by 9
Cincinnati by 5
Tennessee by 10
Detroit by 5
New Orleans by 7
Atlanta by 5
San Francisco by 10
St. Louis by 12
Houston by 3
Baltimore by 14
Miami by 10
Dallas by 3
Green Bay by 5
Indianapolis by 3

posted by NoMich at 09:58 PM on September 16

It is extremely disheartening that I am as good at CFL Pick 'EM as I am at NFL Pick 'Em.

Kansas City by 3
New England by 17
Arizona by 10
Cincinnati by 5
Tennessee by 13
Detroit by 3
New Orleans by 11
Atlanta by 4
San Francisco by 3
St. Louis by 10
Carolina by 16
Baltimore by 20
Miami by 9
Dallas by 3
Green Bay by 6
Indianapolis by 10

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 10:30 PM on September 16

Kansas City by 4
New England by 6
Chicago by 3
Cincinnati by 4
Tennessee by 10
Detroit by 9
New Orleans by 17 - Lock it down
New York Giants by 5
Pittsburgh by 14
St. Louis by 13
Carolina by 6
Baltimore by 11
Miami by 14
Philadelphia by 4
Green Bay by 9
Indianapolis by 10

posted by Ufez Jones at 10:35 PM on September 16

Denver by 4

Buffalo by 3

Arizona by 10

Cincinnati by 5

Tennessee by 10

Detroit by 3

New Orleans by 10

NYG by 3

49ers by 3

St.Louis by 10

Carolina by 4

Baltimore by 6 - Lock

Miami by 4

Philadelphia by 7

Green Bay by 3

Indianapolis by 4

posted by cixelsyd at 11:02 PM on September 16

Kansas City by 3

Buffalo by 4

Arizona by 10

Cincinnati by 14

Cleveland by 6

Minnesota by 2

New Orleans by 24 (Book it Dan-O, it's a Lock)

NY football Giants by 9

Pittsburgh by 10

St. Louis by 11

Carolina by 5

Baltimore by 17

Jacksonville by 6

Philadelphia by 10

Green Bay by 4

Indianapolis by 1

posted by jagsnumberone at 12:10 AM on September 17

Denver by 4
New England by 1
Arizona by 14
San Diego by 6
Tennessee by 9
Minnesota by 3
New Orleans by 9
New York Giants by 11
Pittsburgh by 17 "You gotta lock that down."
St. Louis by 20
Carolina by 3
Baltimore by 14
Miami by 3
Philadelphia by 9
Green Bay by 4
Indianapolis by 13

posted by grum@work at 12:29 AM on September 17

KC by 7
NE by 14
Arizona by 21
Cincy by 14
Tenn by 7
Minn by 7
New O by 14
NYG by 21
Pitt by 14 (Hayne Plane hits turbulence)
St L by 7
Carolina by 7
Baltimore by 14
Miami by 21
Philly by 14
Green Bay by 7
Indy by 7

posted by owlhouse at 12:50 AM on September 17

Denver by 6
New England by 13: Locky McLock Lock
Arizona by 10
Cincinnati by 3
Tennessee by 17
Minnesota by 1
New Orleans by 8
New York Giants by 3
San Francisco by 11
St. Louis by 17
Carolina by 3
Baltimore by 10
Miami by 13
Dallas by 6
Green Bay by 3
Indianapolis by 8

posted by billsaysthis at 12:53 AM on September 17

Denver by 4

New England by 10

Arizona by 17

Cincinnati by 6

Tennessee by 13

Detroit by 4

New Orleans by 28 ( lead pipe lock)

Atlanta by 3

Pittsburgh by 5

St Louis by 12

Carolina by 6

Baltimore by 24

Miami by 10

Philadelphia by 3

Seattle by 3

Indianapolis by 17

posted by ic23b at 01:16 AM on September 17

Denver by 14

Buffalo by 6

Chicago by 7

Cincinnati by 3

Tennessee by 14

Detroit by 6

New Orleans by 6

New York Giants by 7

Pittsburgh by 17

St. Louis by 10

Carolina by 6

Baltimore by 14

Miami by 10

Dallas by 6

Green Bay by 4 (lock)

Indianapolis by 12

posted by goddam at 02:10 AM on September 17

Kansas City by 3

New England by 7

Chicago by 10

Cincinnati by 3

Tennessee by 6

Minnesota by 12

New Orleans by 14

Atlanta by 3

Pittsburgh by 14

Washington by 3

Carolina by 10

Oakland by 7

Jacksonville by 3

Philadelphia by 10

Green Bay by 14

Indianapolis by 10 STONE COLD LOCK

posted by rumple at 02:30 AM on September 17

New Entry

Kansas City by 10

Buffalo by 3

Arizona by 7

Cincinnati by 4

Cleveland by 3

Detroit by 11

New Orleans by 9

Atlanta by 3

San Francisco by 7

St Louis by 10

Houston by 3

Baltimore by 3

Miami by 6

Dallas by 3

Green Bay by 6

Indianapolis by 11 LOCK

posted by Irish627 at 06:06 AM on September 17

I'll pick tonight's game now and come back later to pick the others

Kansas City by 6

posted by bender at 09:51 AM on September 17

Kansas City by 9
Buffalo by 3
Arizona by 6
Cincinnati by 4
Tennessee by 6
Minnesota by 3
New Orleans by 6
Atlanta by 3
Pittsburgh by 3
St. Louis by 7 - Lock
Carolina by 6
Baltimore by 5
Miami by 7
Dallas by 3
Green Bay by 6
Indianapolis by 3

posted by yerfatma at 10:50 AM on September 17

Denver by 3. I'll have the rest by Sunday

posted by tron7 at 02:38 PM on September 17

Chiefs by 2

Panthers by 2

Chargers by 4

Vikings by 2

Falcons by 1

Rams by 6

Ravens by 11

Packers by 2

Bills by 2

Bears by 1

Titans by 2

Saints by 13

Steelers by 5

Dolphins by 8

Eagles by 3

Colts by 4

posted by forrestv at 03:35 PM on September 17

Kansas City by 3
Buffalo by 8
Arizona by 10
Cincinnati by 7
Cleveland by 3
Minnesota by 4
New Orleans by 13
New York Giants by 3
Pittsburgh by 7
St. Louis by 8
Carolina by 6
Baltimore by 7 <-- stone lead cold lock pipe
Miami by 6
Philadelphia by 4
Green Bay by 10
Indianapolis by 3

posted by rcade at 03:38 PM on September 17

Kansas City by 7
Buffalo by 3
Chicago by 6
Cincinnati by 10
Tennessee by 3
Minnesota by 7
New Orleans by 14 -- Tyler Lockett LOCK of the Week
New York Giants by 7
Pittsburgh by 14
St. Louis by 7
Carolina by 7
Baltimore by 13
Miami by 3
Philadelphia by 10
Green Bay by 10
Indianapolis by 9

posted by holden at 04:12 PM on September 17

Denver by 10
Buffalo by 7
Green Bay by 11
Seattle by 10
Jets by 6
Miami by 15 (Lock 'Em Up!)
Cleveland by 3
Kansas City by 17
New Orleans by 3
San Diego by 12
Denver by 13
Oakland by 2
Tennessee by 14
Giants by 5
Philadelphia by 9
San Francisco by 14

posted by jjzucal at 06:00 PM on September 17

Kansas City by 8

Buffalo by 4

Arizona by 17

Cincinnati by 3

Tennessee by 4

Detroit by 3

New Orleans by 17

Atlanta by 8

Pittsburgh by 10

St. Louis by 13

Carolina by 10

Baltimore by 20 (Cuz Stone Cold Said So)

Miami by 6

Dallas by 13

Green Bay by 14

Indianapolis by 10

posted by tahoemoj at 06:02 PM on September 17

Just a quick grab at the Thursday night game. I will get to the rest of the picks tomorrow. Right now I'm like a one-armed paper hangar.

Kansas City by 8.

Manning is better than last week, but not good enough. Sad to see.

posted by Howard_T at 08:04 PM on September 17

Denver by 3 as previously noted
Buffalo by 3
Arizona by 7
San Diego by 3
Tennessee by 7
Minnesota by 4
New Orleans by 13 - Lock of the week
Atlanta by 3
Pittsburgh by 7
St. Louis by 7
Carolina by 4
Baltimore by 10
Miami by 3
Philadelphia by 3
Green Bay by 6
Indianapolis by 6

posted by tron7 at 09:51 AM on September 18

Dammit, missed the Chiefs-Broncos game. I blame this new-fangled Thursday football thing.

Carolina by six.

Pittsburgh by 14.

New Orleans by 27.

Detroit by 10.

Arizona by 14.

Buffalo by three.

Bengals by three.

Tennessee by 17.

Atlanta by seven.

St. Louis by 10. (stone cold lock)

Miami by 13.

Baltimore by 24.

Dallas by one.

Green Bay by three.

Indianapolis by seven.

posted by Goyoucolts at 07:30 PM on September 18

OK, time to catch up on the serious business at hand. Great call by me on the KC-Denver game. Of course, one never quite expects such an ending, but at least it made for great TV.

Now the picks:

49ers by 10
Saints by 3
Cardinals by 16
Bengals by 6
Falcons by 9
Vikings by 2
(Holding my breath) Patriots by 3
Rams by 12 LOCK/LOCK/LOCK
Panthers by 5
Dolphins by 14
Ravens by 8
Eagles by 3
Packers by 10
Colts by 9

posted by Howard_T at 12:27 AM on September 19

Okay Buffalo, don't make me a two-time lock-loser, revert, revert!

posted by billsaysthis at 10:57 AM on September 19

Buffalo by 2
Chicago by 4
San Diego by 6
Tennessee by 6
Detroit by 10
New Orleans by 13
New York Giants 9
Pittsburgh by 7
St. Louis by 10
Carolina by 7
Oakland 4
Miami by 14
Philadelphia by 7
Green Bay by 7
LOCK Indianapolis by 13 LOCK

posted by bender at 04:22 PM on September 19

Just took another look at my picks, and I see that I did not make a choice for Titans at Browns.

Titans by 12

Please add this, and I regret causing any inconvenience due to the fact that I am rapidly becoming senile.

posted by Howard_T at 05:19 PM on September 19

Not that we're doing eliminator, but still...

posted by Ufez Jones at 07:36 PM on September 20

I gladly sacrifice my lead pipe lock this week to see Baltimore drop to 0-2.

posted by tahoemoj at 08:14 PM on September 20

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