September 08, 2015

NFL Pick 'Em, Week 1: Win One for the Duke: The NFL season starts Thursday, so it's time to channel your inner Norman Chad and make picks each week. Choose the winners of each game, the margin of victory and up to one stone cold lead pipe lock. The winner will receive a prize (details inside).

posted by rcade to football at 12:06 PM - 36 comments

For this year's NFL Pick 'Em contest, SportsFilter is giving away a prize to the season's winner: An official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

We're using the same rules as the CFL Chicobangs Memorial, with one twist.

Pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 1 point
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 2 points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 3 points
Didn't pick the winner, but nailed the spread? You get 1 point

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game. Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Jacksonville by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Jacksonville by 202 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Jacksonville by 101 point (winner only)
Jacksonville by 153 points (winner + nailed spread)
Carolina by 151 point (nailed spread only)
Carolina by 430 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose one game a week to be your Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock. This triples the points you win for that game, but if that team loses, you lose 3 points. You're not required to pick a lock each week.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

This Week's Games

Pittsburgh at New England
Indianapolis at Buffalo
Green Bay at Chicago
Seattle at St. Louis
Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
Miami at Washington
Carolina at Jacksonville
Kansas City at Houston
New Orleans at Arizona
Detroit at San Diego
Baltimore at Denver
Cincinnati at Oakland
Tennessee at Tampa Bay
N.Y. Giants at Dallas
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Minnesota at San Francisco

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade at 12:19 PM on September 08

If you need any extra motivation, this could be your last year to get an official NFL football with Commissioner Roger Goodell's name on it.

No guarantee express nor implied the football will have Roger Goodell's name on it.

posted by rcade at 12:32 PM on September 08

New England by 24

Indianapolis by 6

Green Bay by 23 (stone cold pipe lock)

Seattle by 5

Jets by 3

Miami by 7

Carolina by 6

Houston by 3

New Orleans by 3

Detroit by 10

Denver by 17

Cincinnati by 21

Tampa Bay by 6

Dallas by 14

Philadelphia by 12

Minnesota by 17

posted by ic23b at 01:23 PM on September 08

New England by 11
Indianapolis by 10 Stone Cold Lock
Green Bay by 9
Seattle by 7
N.Y. Jets by 6
Miami by 10
Jacksonville by 15
Houston by 3
Arizona by 7
San Diego by 14
Denver by 10
Oakland by 9
Tampa Bay by 3
N.Y. Giants by 3
Atlanta by 10
San Francisco by 14

Boy this takes longer than the CFL one but not really more thought going into it

posted by rumple at 01:44 PM on September 08

Deflatriots by 4

Indy by 10

Green Bay by 8

Seattle by 4

Jets by 3

Miami by 8

Carolina by 4

Houston by 3

Arizona by 4

San Diego by 3

Baltimore by 6

Cincy by 12

Tampa Bay by 3

Giants by 8

Philadelphia by 7

Minnesota by 10

posted by cixelsyd at 02:47 PM on September 08

New England by 6

Indianapolis by 10

Green Bay by 17

Seattle by 3

N.Y. Jets by 6

Miami by 17

Carolina by 10

Kansas City by 13

Arizona by 6

Detroit by 10

Baltimore by 6

Cincinnati by 14 - stoney baloney ice cold lead pipe lock

Tampa Bay by 5

Dallas by 13

Philadelphia by 6

Minnesota by 13

posted by tahoemoj at 02:55 PM on September 08

Pittsburgh by four

Indianapolis by 13 (stone cold lock)

Green Bay by 14

St. Louis by one

N.Y. Jets by 10

Miami by 11

Carolina by 9

Kansas City by six

Arizona by six

San Diego by seven

Denver by 14

Cincinnati by nine

Tennessee by seven

Dallas by 20

Atlanta by 10

Minnesota by 12.

posted by Goyoucolts at 07:21 PM on September 08

Pittsburgh by 6
Indianapolis by 13
Green Bay by 10
St. Louis by 3
Cleveland by 4
Miami by 14 - Smooth Jimmy Apollo's Lock of the Week
Jacksonville by 3
Kansas City by 9
Arizona by 7
San Diego by 6
Denver by 1
Cincinnati by 5
Tampa Bay by 3
N.Y. Giants by 6
Philadelphia by 7
Minnesota by 14

posted by Ufez Jones at 07:41 PM on September 08

New England by 7
Indianapolis by 3
Green Bay by 7
St. Louis by 2
Cleveland by 1
Miami by 7
Carolina by 10*
Houston by 4
Arizona by 3
San Diego by 5
Baltimore by 8
Cincinnati by 12
Tennessee by 4
N.Y. Giants by 3
Atlanta by 6
Minnesota by 3


* - Lock of the week pick.

posted by NoMich at 07:50 PM on September 08

Pittsburgh by 6

Buffalo by 3

Green Bay by 14

Seattle by 10

N.Y. Jets by 6

Miami by 14

Carolina by 3

Houston by 9

Arizona by 7

San Diego by 17

Denver by 14

Cincinnati by 10

Tennessee by 7

N.Y. Giants by 9

Atlanta by 9

San Francisco by 3

posted by goddam at 07:57 PM on September 08

New England by 3
Buffalo by 3
Green Bay by 12
Seattle by 11
Cleveland by 1
Miami by 5
Carolina by 17
Kansas City by 4
New Orleans by 6
San Diego by 11
Denver by 9
Oakland by 1
Tennessee by 6
Dallas by 11
Philadelphia by 10
Minnesota by 3

posted by grum@work at 08:34 PM on September 08

I want that ball.

Pats by 28
Indy by 13
Packers by 14
Seahawks by 3 (in OT)
Jets by 7
Phins by 10
Panthers by 21
Houston by 10
Cards by 7
Broncos by 28
Bengals by 13
Bucs by 3
Cowboys by 10
Eagles by 17
Jarryd Hayne by 7

posted by owlhouse at 10:16 PM on September 08

Will the ball arrive fully and legally inflated?

New England by 27

Indianapolis by 21

Green Bay by 17

Seattle by 8

Cleveland by 2

Miami by 4

Carolina by 8

Kansas City by 9

Arizona by 5

San Diego by 11

Denver by 11

Cincinnati by 5

Tampa Bay by 9

Dallas by 2

Atlanta by 2

Minnesota by 22

posted by tommytrump at 11:13 PM on September 08

Will the ball arrive fully and legally inflated?

This ball will be taken into a private GIllette Stadium bathroom for 90 seconds. What happens there is between me, Judge Richard Berman and the Ideal Gas Law.

posted by rcade at 10:16 AM on September 09

New England by 3
Indianapolis 16 (lock of the week)
Green Bay by 13
Seattle by 6
N.Y. Jets by 2
Miami by 10
Carolina by 13
Kansas City by 4
Arizona by 6
San Diego by 1
Denver by 10
Oakland by 4
Tennessee by 9
N.Y. Giants by 5
Atlanta by 3
San Francisco by 6

posted by billsaysthis at 10:39 AM on September 09

New England by 17
Indianapolis by 10
Green Bay by 7
Seattle by 8
N.Y. Jets by 4
Miami by 6
Carolina by 4
Houston by 4
New Orleans by 4
San Diego by 10
Denver by 11
Cincinnati by 3
Tampa Bay by 10 - El Lockerino
Dallas by 7
Atlanta by 3
Minnesota by 3

posted by tron7 at 11:43 AM on September 09

Rules question: What should we do if someone picks a stone cold lead pipe lock and the team loses but the spread is correct? That game could be worth 0, -2 or -3, depending on whether nailing the spread gets you 1 point or not and whether it's tripled or not. I think the point triple only should happen in a win, making the game worth -2.

posted by rcade at 12:22 PM on September 09

I think, since we're picking straight-up, if you lose the lock, -3.

New England by 11
Buffalo by 6
Green Bay by 7
Seattle by 12
Cleveland by 2
Miami by 9
Jacksonville by 2
Kansas City by 4
LOCK Arizona by 10 LOCK
Detroit by 4
Denver by 7
Oakland by 6
Tennessee by 3
Dallas by 8
Atlanta by 11
San Francisco by 2

posted by bender at 12:36 PM on September 09

if you lose the lock, -3

.

posted by cixelsyd at 01:42 PM on September 09

New England by 6
Buffalo by 3
Green Bay by 12
St. Louis by 2
N.Y. Jets by 3
Miami by 9
Carolina by 6
Kansas City by 3
Arizona by 5
San Diego by 3
Denver by 7
Cincinnati by 13
Tampa Bay by 4
Dallas by 7
Philadelphia by 9
Minnesota by 7

posted by yerfatma at 02:56 PM on September 09

Patriots by 8

Packers by 8

Panthers by 3

Seahawks by 3

Cardinals by 1

Broncos by 2

Buccaneers by 4

Falcons by 3

Colts by 6

Texans by 4

Jets by 2

Dolphins by 3

Chargers by 3

Bengals by 8

Cowboys by 7

49ers by 1

posted by forrestv at 03:40 PM on September 09

New England by 10
Indianapolis by 7
Green Bay by 10
Seattle by 3
N.Y. Jets by 6
Miami by 7 [Ricardo Lockette LOCK of the week]
Carolina by 7
Kansas City by 3
New Orleans by 7
San Diego by 6
Denver by 3
Cincinnati by 7
Tampa Bay by 7
Dallas by 13
Philadelphia by 3
Minnesota by 7

posted by holden at 04:04 PM on September 09

NE by 15 (Book 'em, Dan-O Lock o' the Week)

Ind by 5

GB by 7

Sea by 12

J-E-T-S! by 3

Mia by 10

Car by 17

KC by 13

Ari by 2

SD by 10

Den by 20

Oak by 3

TB by 3

Dal by 15

Phi by 6

SF by 12

posted by jjzucal at 09:14 PM on September 09

New England by 10
Indianapolis by 20 - STONE COLD LOCK
Green Bay by 17
Seattle by 6
Cleveland by 4
Miami by 10
Carolina by 10
Kansas City by 3
New Orleans by 7
San Diego by 4
Denver by 10
Cincinnati by 17
Tampa Bay by 3
Dallas by 6
Philadelphia by 20
Minnesota by 3

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 09:44 PM on September 09

Way too many teams to pick to make a dissertation on each. (I hear a chorus of "thank you, thank you, thank you" from the great unwashed.) I will proceed apace from here.

New England by 12
Green Bay by 10
Houston by 3
NY Jets by 6 (as I hold my nose and grit my teeth)
Indianapolis by 10
Miami by 7
Carolina by 5
Seattle by 9
New Orleans by 6
San Diego by 4 LOCK THIS ONE DOWN, BABY
Tampa Bay by 10
Oakland by 7
Denver by 12
Dallas by 17
Philadelphia by 15
Minnesota by 9

posted by Howard_T at 10:48 PM on September 09

NE by 10

Buffalo by 2

Green Bay by 27--The lock it down lockdown lock of the week

Seattle by 6

Cleveland by 3

Miami by 6

Jacksonville by 10

KC by 4

Arizona by 10

San Diego by 5

Denver by 7

Cincinnati by 11

Tampa Bay by 1

Dallas by 4

Philly by 17

Minnesota by 16


Note: There sure will be a lot of work to keep up with the stats for this league. Maybe a second football should be given out just for keeping the stats up to date from week to week (and with that suggestion if I get an extra point or two each week, I won't tell/lol)

posted by jagsnumberone at 11:58 PM on September 09

I hope your Jacksonville pick is the product of the staggering prognosticative intellect you've displayed in the Chicobangs and not unswerving First Coast loyalty. Bold City needs a W.

posted by rcade at 12:59 AM on September 10

Rcade--I hope so too/lol. This week, it's both. I really do think we'll win this week but, I have to admit, that I can not pick against them, regardless of the opponent, and whether I think they will win or not. In Bortles we trust.

posted by jagsnumberone at 03:09 PM on September 10

New England by 8

Indianapolis by 3

Green Bay by 10 <-- stone cold lead pipe lock

Seattle by 5

N.Y. Jets by 8

Miami by 3

Carolina by 4

Houston by 4

Arizona by 9

San Diego by 6

Denver by 4

Cincinnati by 7

Tampa Bay by 3

Dallas by 7

Philadelphia by 2

San Francisco by 4

posted by rcade at 03:30 PM on September 10

The tribe has spoken: Losing your stone cold lead pipe lock will always be -3, even when you hit the spread.

posted by rcade at 04:57 PM on September 10

In Bortles we trust.

In Blake Klingler O'Donnell Smith Mitchell Kitna Palmer Dalton we trust.

sigh

posted by tahoemoj at 05:12 PM on September 10

Tahoemoj, I probably should tell you that I live just outside of Cincy (grew up here and was/is a Bengals fan), so maybe I'm part of a curse/lol.

(Just FYI-- I grew up in Ohio, went to college in Florida (Jacksonville University then post grad at Univ. North Fla.) stayed in Jax for 18 years-original season ticket holder for the Jags, then moved back to Ohio (family still lives here and job related), in case you were wondering how I could be such a diehard Jags fan and live in Ohio)

posted by jagsnumberone at 03:04 AM on September 11

I worked as Jacksonville University's webmaster for six months in the 1990s. That's the gig that brought me to Florida from Dallas.

posted by rcade at 08:42 AM on September 11

in case you were wondering how I could be such a diehard Jags fan and live in Ohio

First of all, anyone who leaves Ohio and is smart enough to abandon any vestiges of Bengals and/or Browns fanhood cannot be faulted. Not even a little bit. I have lived on the west coast for 21 years now, but am too stubborn (dumb?) to abandon my allegiance to the Bengals after living in Cincinnati for 20 years. When I think of how much more pleasant my last two decades would have been if I had just jumped on the Niners, Seahawks, Chargers, or even Raiders (ok, just kidding) bandwagon.

But then after being smart enough to jump ship, you pick the Jags?! And stick with them, even with the Bengals reaching the pinnacle of almost being competitive?! If you're ever in Santa Barbara, I'll buy you a drink.

posted by tahoemoj at 12:15 PM on September 11

If you're ever in Santa Barbara, I'll buy you a drink.

I look forward to it. Though, you're probably in no real danger of having to buy it/lol.

posted by jagsnumberone at 01:23 AM on September 13

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