I'm not trying to be overly critical of Hunter it's just disapointing and bizarre to have the series hinge(IMO) on a misplayed ball from your perennial-gold-glove-winning-
ridiculous-catch-making-center fielder. Also, imagine if this play happenned to Torii and he was a Yankee. A-rod might actually get a reprieve.
But in determing who the best team is - even the best team built for the postseason, which is a bit different than the best team built for the long season - the playoffs will do that successfully about 15% of the time 15 percent? Do you have anything to back up that stat or did you just make it up? Uh, no, I didn't make it up. If each team in the playoffs had an equal chance to win the World Series, each team would have a 12.5% chance. Since some teams are better than others, teams that are better have a greater chance than 12.5%. There was an article detailing how random the playoffs are by Bill James in the 1989 Baseball Abstract (that book was not a James book, but he wrote the article). Obviously, with only 4 teams in the playoffs at that time, the odds were better - twice as high - for each team at each time. The team that is best built for the post season has the best chance to win the post season. Don't disagree. The best team in the postseason probably has about a 50% better chance to win the World Series than the worst team. Thus if the best team has a 15% chance, the worst team has a 10%. Predicting the result is very difficult in baseball, but looking at the result it's not hard to understand why team A beats team B. Well, of course it's easy to explain something after it happens, because by then you know what happened. If the Yankees had beaten the Tigers by scoring tons of runs, we would have been able to explain why that happened too. We can even explain why the Royals, the worst team in the majors, swept the Tigers the last weekend of the season to knock the Tigers out of first place. But that doesn't mean the results tell us anything about the merits of the two teams; the sample size of 3 or 5 or 7 games is simply too small for the difference in the teams' quality to play a significant role in who wins the series. Even the results of 162 games season have a lot of randomness in them; you'd have to play 1000 games to really determine the best team with a strong amount of accuracy. You can do the math itself; if you have one team that's of .600 quality, and another team that's of .570 quality, the .600 team will win a game between the two teams 53% of the time, a 3 game series 55% of the time, a 5 game series 56% of the time, and a 7 game series 57% of the time. When you get to really long, long series, the .600 team wil eventually win 99.9% of the time. (Obviously, this does not take into advantage outside factors such as home field advantage, the day's weather, etc. Note that I am not basing this on the team's season winning percentages, but on what the teams' winning percentages would be in an infinitely long season. ) See this article for a more mathematical explanation with some real numbers.