Stone Cold Lock: Jacksonville Over New England: On Saturday, the Jaguars will end Tom Brady's perfect playoff record and leave the Super Bowl champs in the cold, predicts SportsFilter columnist rcade.
posted by justgary to football at 03:44 PM - 46 comments
Great article, rcade, but I hope you're wrong. I've got Pats-Bears rematch 20 years later in my pools. Thanks for the read, though.
posted by willthrill72 at 03:50 PM on January 06
Crazy stuff right there. I hope ur right, i stole my grandmas money to make bets! haha
posted by zac4667 at 03:52 PM on January 06
The only thing more certain than a Jags win over the Pats is the Bengals beating the Steelers... Who Dey!
posted by LostInDaJungle at 03:53 PM on January 06
I'm going to wait until new england wins to gloat. If they lose, I won't say anything.
posted by justgary at 03:58 PM on January 06
Everytime someone says Who Dey I just think of Uday. Hussein.
posted by charlatan at 04:05 PM on January 06
I'll say it: HOMER!
posted by chicobangs at 04:09 PM on January 06
Dammit, rcade, now you're making me second-guess my 2 team teaser with the Pats -1.5 Over 31. Thanks, I feel the ulcer building already.
posted by redsnare at 04:15 PM on January 06
You know, reading that article, I am almost convinced the Jags will win..... Almost. I like the combination of experience, a proven postseason record, and home-field in this one. I can't go against the Pats at home in the playoffs, not until someone goes into Foxboro does them in. Maybe Jax? Maybe; but not likely.
posted by RScannix at 04:16 PM on January 06
"I see the Colts winning this one, perhaps even in a laugher." — rcade, this time last year Snazzy column, rcade, but I couldn't resist bringing that up.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 04:18 PM on January 06
I hope your not wrong. I posted this 2 days ago in my picks.
posted by skydivemom at 04:21 PM on January 06
Your Doomed now rcade, skydivemom was on the same pick 2 days ago. Other than that Good Luck
posted by skydivedad at 04:44 PM on January 06
Hey, he out prognosticated the Vatican...but I'm not sure I'm totally convinced on the Jaguars prediction.
posted by chris2sy at 04:46 PM on January 06
rcade, put the crack pipe down....
posted by jenny at 04:49 PM on January 06
I think this game is as ripe for an "upset' as any other. I like Jacksonville's chances against a Patriots team I see as not nearly as strong as last year; however, I am not sure I agree with the part of the column where rcade compares matchups against playoff opponents. Jacksonville barely beat a Tommy Maddox-led (as if that interception-prone insurance salesman could lead a horse to water even) Steelers team in OT. I haven't paid much attention to the Jag-yoo-ars since Byron Leftwich went down with an injury. I think the Jags will have difficulty against the Pat's defense if they start David Garrard, and I am not sure Leftwich is ready to come back. Should be interesting. Nice column though, Homer.
posted by scully at 05:23 PM on January 06
Yeah, rcade- betting against the Pats at this point is silly: 3 of 4 championships in the last 4 years. 9-0 in the playoffs. Playing at home. Can I say they will definitely win? Hardly- football is like that, and dynasties have to end sometime. The Pats could certainly lose this game, but they could certainly win it, as well. I just think of all the games to go "stone cold lock" on, this seems odd: pick against the defending champs at home in the first round. You use some pretty misleading statistics, too: "The 2005 Pats had to win four out of their last five games to reach 10-6"... what is that "had to" line, like their backs were to the wall? Yeah, it was a shitty division but they'd actually clinched a few weeks ago. They started off slowly this year, hobbled by injury, but finished VERY strong. Your phrasing is odd: usually saying "have won 4 of their last 5 and 6 of the last 8" would be a way of pumping up a team as having momentum... that second-half record includes a loss in a relatively meaningless last game against Miami that they barely tried to win (drop kick stunts? Puh-lease). Their record is misleading: the Patriots finished as strong as the Jaguars did. You've been pretty wrong before, as DJE pointed out, and of all the games this one is hardly a lock for either team! If you're right, then I say you got lucky and your curmudgeonly ways have out-picked the SpoFi borg, which has gone overwhelmingly to the Pats in this game. I'd also point out that rcade has NOT posted his full picks in the Pick 'Em thread over in the locker room. Put your rep where your mouth is, rcade: if you're such the NFL guru, surely beating a bunch of internet nobodies in a pick 'em contest should be child's play! :D
posted by hincandenza at 05:35 PM on January 06
The Pats will win at home, Jacksonville does'nt have a " Field General"! The Bengals will lose because they don't have a defense and Pittsburgh does.
posted by pjn62 at 06:08 PM on January 06
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG YOUR PICK SATURDAY Tampa Bay* 2.5 Washington WASH Over 37.5 Under OVER SATURDAY New England* 7.5 Jacksonville NE Over 37.5 Under OVER SUNDAY NY Giants* 2.5 Carolina CAROLINA Over 43.5 Under OVER SUNDAY Pittsburgh 2.5 Cincinnati* PITT Over 45.5 Under UNDER HELP!
posted by STLCardinalfan at 06:18 PM on January 06
I wouldn't count on Fred Taylor "pounding" the ball on anyone. The team needs to part ways with that guy. He's playing the Patriots in New England, not the Rams in St. Louis.
posted by dyams at 06:23 PM on January 06
He's playing the Patriots in New England, not the Rams in St. Louis. Ouch!
posted by STLCardinalfan at 06:25 PM on January 06
The same thing was said about the Rams over the Pats in the Super Bowl, the Colts in the AFC Championship game, and the Eagles in the last Super Bowl. Has anyone learned yet that the more you count the Pats out the more they enjoy the victory. The Pats offense is led by Tom Brady and the Defense is led by Tedy Bruschi. Who is the Jaguars leader again??????????????Yet this is the NFL and no team can be counted in or out. Enjoy the game on Saturday and may the best team win. (GO PATS).
posted by triplexxxhhh at 06:35 PM on January 06
"This year's Patriots aren't the team that flew out of Jacksonville International Airport 334 days ago with their third Lombardi Trophy in four years." True, but they're not very different from that team. The Patriots' first-half lineup was disturbingly weak, with so many key players down with injuries. Indeed, it was a very different team from the one that had taken the championship a few months before. With strangers like Chad Brown, Heath Evans, etc. playing key roles, the team straight out stunk. The ugly loss to the Colts, for example, was at least partially attributable to Pats injuries: without Richard Seymour, they couldn't stop the run, and without Corey Dillon, they couldn't perpetrate it. But look at the Pats' starting lineup since they rekindled their winning ways. With the notable exception of Rodney Harrison, every key player is back in the lineup. Several young players have stepped up to fill in for lost veterans. As a longtime, serious Pats fan, I am very pleased with the lineup that'll be taking the field tomorrow. And don't give me this "two rookies on the offensive line" story. The Patriots ALWAYS have a patchwork O-line, and they always protect Brady. I guess people from Florida like giving the Pats' line bulletin board material. Remember Warren Sapp talking smack about Russ Hochstein? He ended up with all kinds of egg on his face. But you know what, I changed my mind, everybody please count the Pats out. They do a lot better when they feel disrespected.
posted by Venicemenace at 06:53 PM on January 06
Patriots winners on Saturday HANDS DOWN
posted by T$PORT4lawschool at 07:01 PM on January 06
The most important quote in this article is "Blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah. Like a previous poster said, don't pay attention to the stats, they're skewed due to all the injuries. The Pats are the healthiest they have been all season and are playing well. Seymour will require a double team, Colvin will be pressuring the QB all game, and their defense will stop the run.
posted by erokked at 07:14 PM on January 06
Somebody here (lbb I think) dropped the hammer on me for putting Tom Brady and Trent Dilfer in the same sentence prior to the Colts game last playoffs. I should go back and delete that prediction during the offseason. That Pats/Colts "laugher" prediction was just a fleeting impression. A stone cold lock is absolute certitude. Injuries shouldn't turn the Pats into the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, ahead of only San Francisco. They were so bad against the pass this year that it makes me wonder if they're really the 8th-best rushing defense. If teams averaged 231 yards passing, are they handing off as much as they would normally? These Pats remind me of the 1995 Dallas Cowboys. A dynasty that now has to work a lot harder for its wins and might be able to eke out another Lombardi, if a few Neil O'Donnell-level boners fall their way. The Pats offense is led by Tom Brady and the Defense is led by Tedy Bruschi. Who is the Jaguars leader again? Leaders are nice, but football isn't Congress. The Jags draw on Leftwich, Henderson and Stroud, and Del Rio has them performing well enough to end the season 5-1 with a backup quarterback. The opponents were weak during that stretch, but most teams in the NFL would find a way to lose some of those games. (Dallas certainly did -- ugh.)
posted by rcade at 07:53 PM on January 06
"I see the Colts winning this one, perhaps even in a laugher." — rcade, this time last year Ouch.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 07:53 PM on January 06
What is STLCardinalFan talking about? I'm not sure if he's posting his picks for the weekend or what. :)
posted by hincandenza at 08:50 PM on January 06
Somebody here (lbb I think) dropped the hammer on me for putting Tom Brady and Trent Dilfer in the same sentence prior to the Colts game last playoffs. Nah, wasn't me. Injuries shouldn't turn the Pats into the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, ahead of only San Francisco. That number is gonna getcha, Mr. Stone Cold Lock. Sounds like anybody ought to be able to bomb it into the end zone on the Pats and make it work, but somehow it's not like that. Remember, the Pats were way back in the weeds in some important categories back in '02, and they still made it happen. Numbers and rankings and past performances aren't always a very good predictor with the Pats, because above all, they're a team that excels at preparation, and at playing the game that they need to play to beat today's opponent. I'm pretty confident that they're gonna beat Jacksonville, largely because of that preparation thang -- I really think they have that down better than anyone in the NFL; they just have such a well-honed ability, individually and collectively, to do what they need to to prepare for next week's game. Another big ingredient is going to be veteran experience, and I also think a few rookies will shine as well. In particular, I'm looking for my homeboy, #18 Andre Davis, to do something worthwhile.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 08:57 PM on January 06
You had me going for a while, rcade. Valleys 'n peaks, baby, valleys 'n peaks. New England is peaking just at the right time. Their collective mindset is that they've had everything bad happen and they are still in it. That does a lot for team confidence. Rudy Tomjonovich quote: "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." Patriots probably won't go Super this year, but soemone will need a home field advantage to knock 'em out. If Bruschi takes the field in this game against Jax the emotional lift will ADD 3 more points to the spread. As far as the over-under. . . I don't see more than three touchdowns total for the ENTIRE game. Jax came so far, but their's is waiting next season when they'll rip eveybody on their way to a ring.
posted by babooze808 at 09:03 PM on January 06
Two Words. (With a BIll and Ted Accent) YEAH RIGHT!!! Pats by 10 :)
posted by ProSam at 12:23 AM on January 07
You all are crazy if you think the Jags are going to beat the Pats! The patriots are a proven team who is well coached and has adjusted to their injury problems. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is just now getting a semi-healthy Byron Leftwich back in the mix... No way!! I'm not a Patriot fan, but only a fool can see that New England is the favorite by a longshot!!.... As for the Bears v. Pat rematch... Your half right... the Bears will be eliminated in their 1st playoff match-up... That's my word!!
posted by hbzflow at 12:54 AM on January 07
Super Bowl match-up: Pats v. Wash.... That's my word!!
posted by hbzflow at 12:56 AM on January 07
Jag's are NOT getting a ring anytime soon... sorry... but that's my word!! Ya'll better listen!!
posted by hbzflow at 12:58 AM on January 07
I am glad we have your word!
posted by skydivemom at 08:35 AM on January 07
Injuries shouldn't turn the Pats into the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, ahead of only San Francisco. As lbb alluded to above, this really depends on what stat you look at: most, if not all, of the Pats' 3 championship teams had "bad" defenses in terms of yards allowed. Also, if we were to take one of the Jags' great DTs away for 6 games, remove an All Pro linebacker and their entire secondary, would that affect their level of play? It did a number on the Pats this season. I don't think this is a laugher either way. But I don't think the Jags' offense is good enough to get them very deep in the playoffs. But I am swayed by the size of your lock.
posted by yerfatma at 09:02 AM on January 07
The Jaguars lost their franchise player designee and defensive captain, strong safety Donovin Darius, to a season-ending ACL injury in week 2. I think there's too much injury talk regarding the Pats. Unless all of those DBs have jumped off the IR recently, it's still a reason to regard their secondary as vulnerable. But we'll see in another nine hours.
posted by rcade at 10:26 AM on January 07
What is STLCardinalFan talking about? I'm not sure if he's posting his picks for the weekend or what. :) My weekend pool picks but they didn't come out right. With my luck this year, the outcomes won't come out right either.
posted by STLCardinalfan at 10:28 AM on January 07
I think there's too much injury talk regarding the Pats. On the radio last night I heard that every starter that started the first game of the season will start today. Add to that 36 super bowl rings on the Pats, (out of 57 or so) and the experience/success that implies, it's difficult seeing the Pats losing. More importantly for us bettors, will they cover that big 7.5!
posted by STLCardinalfan at 10:33 AM on January 07
I can't see taking the Pats with that spread, but I still like them to win.
posted by yerfatma at 12:26 PM on January 07
If the Jags throw deep early and often, they win. Both Carolina and Philly figured this out too late (the Eagles waaay too late). I'm losing my mind watching teams avoid doing the one thing the Pats are worst at defending.
posted by oscillator72 at 03:13 PM on January 07
If the Jags throw deep early and often, they win. I wouldn't count on that. Looks like Asante Samuel is good to go, and Ellis Hobbs ain't no slouch either. I expect the Jag-yoo-ars will try this, but either Samuel or Hobbs could take the wind out of their sails in a hurry. It wouldn't surprise me to see a big offensive play for the Jags, or a big turnover for NE, early in the game.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 03:43 PM on January 07
pats all the way!! No one will suprize them in a playoff game!! They will kick a-- one and ALL
posted by akyrlph at 04:09 PM on January 07
Who do you like to get the '08 Democratic nomination, Cadenhead? (cackle)
posted by trharlan at 09:23 PM on January 07
...as if the Patriots need anyone else to wish them ill....thanks for the boost, roger. 28-3 and counting..
posted by Leominster at 09:43 PM on January 07
A few observations: 1. I was right: The weather wasn't a factor. 2. Take away just four plays, and it's a 3-point Jaguars win. 3. I said Byron Leftwich would hit those big targets in the Jags receiving corps. I didn't say they'd actually catch any of the passes. 4. My analysis underestimated the importance of touchdowns on the outcome of a playoff game. 5. I absofreaking nailed the under. 6. The next pope will pick the name Belichick the I.
posted by rcade at 10:32 PM on January 07
6. The next pope will pick the name Belichick the I. Especially if he wants to boost his infallibility rep.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 10:55 PM on January 07
2. Take away just four plays, and it's a 3-point Jaguars win. That's true of any 4 touchdowns, of course. Hee hee. I think I just peed my pants. :) That'll teach you to express your opinion, rcade- you'd never catch me doing that! :P
posted by hincandenza at 11:25 PM on January 07
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