Hey nort I'm American as anybody. I remember watching World Cup Soccer on TV in the 60's. I've traveled to Europe and totally enjoyed Professional Soccer there and here in the Good Old USA. You don't speak for me. I love Baseball, NFL and College Football, Hockey (to unamerican for you I suppose) Golf, Horse Racing, SKydiving, Track & Field, Soccer (Football). Nascar, Formula 1. Just to name a few. You don't speak for me or Millions of other Americans.
You guys are the best. I totally missed the draw today. grum, timewise, for us USA left-coasters, games will be on in the middle of the frickin' workday. That's going to be tough ... for my company. Ha! On inspection, my best guesses for qualifiers from each group: (Group: Winner, Runner-up) A: Germany, Poland (damn, that was easy) B: England, Sweden (or Paraguay. Hmmm.) C: Argentina, Netherlands D: Mexico, Portugal E: Italy, USA (or CzechR, taking a gamble here) F: Brazil, Croatia (or Australia, spoilers) G: France, Switzerland (or Korea) H: Spain, Ukraine (this looks like the weakest group) Based on the bracket: ROUND 2: Germany v Sweden = Germany Argentina v Portugal = Portugal Italy v Croatia = Italy France v Ukraine = France England v Poland = England Mexico v Netherlands = Netherlands Brazil v USA = Brazil Spain v Switzerland = Spain QUARTERS: Germany v Portugal = Portugal Italy v France = France England v Netherlands = England Brazil v Spain = Brazil SEMIS Portugal v France = France England v Brazil = Brazil FINAL France v Brazil = Brazil I'll be rooting for Brazil, England, USA, probably in that order. Would love to see dark horses make it, like in 2002 when Argentina, France and Portugal went home early (if I remember correctly) and teams like Japan and Korea went thru. Maybe it'll be Iran, Ivory Coast (I think Drogba plays for them?), TnT and Australia this time.
Also, grum, when the time comes, the official World Cup site has a pretty neat time conversion widget that will let you translate the match's local time to your timezone (it's not working now because the next games are still half a year away). I helped design the interface/interaction for the current implementation (which was working during the prelims), which allows you to do an immediate translation but doesn't remember your timezone setting (technicalities!). Perhaps they'll have that figured out by next summer. And, Heidi grabs the ball.
And let us not forget why the USA are in a group of death...When taking factors into consideration to determine the top seeds, Fifa looked at the last 2 World Cup performances. I can't see why our performance 7 1/2 years ago is extremely relevant to our performance this summer. With only 3 of those players definitely set to return this summer and MAYBE 1 or 2 others, we're looking at an entirely new team. Because of this idiocy, we weren't one of the 8 seeded teams even though we should have been.
Ooops. Just realised that if England win Group B I'll be flying home from Prague when we play the last 16 game. Come on Sweden!
No, hang on, got that wrong, we fly back when the Group B runners-up play the last 16 game. Come on England! :-)
Because of this idiocy, we weren't one of the 8 seeded teams even though we should have been. Uh, right. As much as the FIFA rankings make the US smile, fact is that they're hopelessly distorted in qualifying years. Czech Republic number 2? They didn't even win their UEFA group.
WC, you got to get with your old crew and make sure they get some good, free fantasy league offerings! And WTF is with Mexico winning their group over Portugal?
OK, I started this mess. Here are my predictions: (Group: Winner, Runner-up) A: Germany, Poland B: England, Paraguay C: Netherlands, Argentina (the group of death) D: Portugal, Mexico E: Italy, USA (death group Part 2, so I'm a homer) F: Brazil, Japan G: France, South H: Ukraine, Spain (this is definitely the weakest group) I'll worry about the bracket later.
bill, sorry, I don't know, haven't really followed Portugal that much. Did they win Euro04? Or was it Greece? Is Figo gonna be in Germany? Aside from fancylegs Ronaldo, who else do they have? Just doesn't feel that strong to me.
I remember, last time around, that the official World Cup site had a great (free) fantasy pool. I am sure there will be other offerings to choose from too. Hey bill, Portugal lost the Euro championship last summer on their home field to... Greece. Portugal and Spain are typical heartbreak (underachieving) teams, no?
Anyone who thinks the US are the 8th ranked team in the world is an idiot. I agree with you about the rankings being flawed, but they are a decent benchmark. If they had only taken the last World Cup into account along with the US's probable true ranking of 10, 11 or maybe even 12, then they realistically could have been an 8 seed.
Here is a hypothetical table taking all the worlds teams into account for the whole year...I know the competition against the US isn't quite as stiff as some of the big boys, but we have had an extremely impressive 4 years. Team P W D L GF GA GDIF PTS % 1 United States 20 13 4 3 33 12 +21 43 71.7 2 Mexico 25 12 7 6 42 26 +16 43 57.3 3 Trinidad and Tobago 28 13 4 11 35 33 +2 43 51.2 4 Japan 20 11 3 6 31 20 +11 36 60.0 5 Costa Rica 24 10 5 9 37 33 +4 35 48.6 6 Brazil 16 10 4 2 47 14 +33 34 70.8 7 Poland 14 11 1 2 35 15 +20 34 81.0 8 Egypt 14 9 2 3 31 10 +21 29 69.0 9 Spain 12 8 4 0 29 5 +24 28 77.8 10 Argentina 17 8 4 5 28 23 +5 28 54.9 Along with our record from all of 2002 - current W- D - L 43-14-14
In the world rankings, the USA is actually ahead of Italy. Go ahead, laugh, but that's what the computer says.
Yeah, the Italians & Czechs are doubtless less than thrilled to share a group with the Americans as well. Eh, some very good team is not going to advance. It happens. And I'm pulling for whoever squealy was pulling for five minutes ago, or maybe five minutes from now, or something. Also the African countries, just because. (I'm going to go check the betting line on whether Angola's going to manage to score a goal in any of their games.)
Ricardo, awesome table and stats. Could you do one that's got the 32 teams for next year? Would be good to see how all those stack up, esp. Germany. Since they're the only team that got a free pass this time, and have had some chaos with the team mgt, local referee corruption, general crap performances and no real international competition, I'm expecting a softer Germany this time, one that may even surprise everyone and not make it out of their group.
And rank them by the percentage of points won, instead of actual #pts. I think that gives a little more accurate picture. And a pony. ;-)
I would first like to say...imsnsho...that there is only one Group of Death in each World Cup and the U.S. is not in this one. All the comments on Group C being the toughest are dead on. Yes, we're going to have a rough go of it, but even though we haven't done well against Italy in the past, I think we can get a result there. It will all come down to the last group game against Ghana and we just have to see what happens. The only way we get anything from the opening game against the Czechs is to put 10 men behind the ball and hope for a scoreless draw, which I don't see happening. Kasey Keller is the key there. If he stays healthy and pulls off one of those mammoth games like he did against Brazil in the run up to France '98, we could steal a point against the Czechs. One thing is for sure: If we get out of this group there should be no doubting the U.S having such a high world ranking in the last few years. I can't wait for June!
Me, too, JJ. (and DYNOMITE to you, my fine Olympian friend) I'm 'bout ready to pay out for real cable and a big flatscreen TV! My dad's visiting next summer, and this will be the first time we've watched the World Cup together in years. Years!
Hey bill, Portugal lost the Euro championship last summer on their home field to... Greece. Portugal and Spain are typical heartbreak (underachieving) teams, no? True but they did make it out of the group stage, right? Heartbreak is because they got so far but to the trophy. USA is a better team than Mexico, world rankings crap or not, as that is one squad we've played against and against the same opponents as well and have beaten them consistently. Portugal will win that group. USA chances against Czech Republic could be easily influenced by injuries as the CR players the last few years seem to be losing more playing time than would be expected to it. Italy v USA may (I repeat, may) be have an emotional component based on the first game days, with Italy lulled by an easy result against Ghana and USA on a high from a result against CR if we get one--a result against the Italians could mean winning the group and avoiding Brazil in R16--or a low if we don't. WC, if you do get the big flatscreen let's have a SpoFi meetup for one of the weekend match days! I'll bring some food.
Roger niner, bill. Will do.
Here is a table consisting of games from 2002 - present. The PCT column is a percentage of points divided by possible points. This shows how well the US has played. Unfortunately, it shows how well the Czechs have played. We are well above Italy and Ghana though so hopefully these number will pan out... +------+------+------+------+-
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---+------+ | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | DIF | PTS | PCT | +------+------+------+------+-
-----+------+------+------+---
---+------+ | Cze | 46 | 33 | 6 | 7 | 112 | 38 | 74 | 105 | 0.76 | | Esp | 49 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 97 | 27 | 70 | 106 | 0.72 | | Fra | 53 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 104 | 28 | 76 | 114 | 0.72 | | Irn | 51 | 32 | 9 | 10 | 105 | 45 | 60 | 105 | 0.69 | | Bra | 66 | 39 | 18 | 9 | 144 | 51 | 93 | 135 | 0.68 | | Ned | 46 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 87 | 29 | 58 | 93 | 0.67 | | Usa | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 123 | 49 | 74 | 143 | 0.67 | | Aus | 32 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 93 | 31 | 62 | 64 | 0.67 | | Arg | 54 | 31 | 13 | 10 | 96 | 57 | 39 | 106 | 0.65 | | Pol | 55 | 33 | 7 | 15 | 105 | 62 | 43 | 106 | 0.64 | | Por | 51 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 105 | 44 | 61 | 98 | 0.64 | | Ita | 50 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 75 | 39 | 36 | 96 | 0.64 | | Eng | 49 | 27 | 13 | 9 | 87 | 49 | 38 | 94 | 0.64 | | Mex | 71 | 39 | 17 | 15 | 132 | 56 | 76 | 134 | 0.63 | | Ksa | 66 | 36 | 14 | 16 | 110 | 64 | 46 | 122 | 0.62 | | Ger | 60 | 32 | 14 | 14 | 128 | 69 | 59 | 110 | 0.61 | | Jpn | 71 | 38 | 16 | 17 | 109 | 65 | 44 | 130 | 0.61 | | Cro | 46 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 64 | 38 | 26 | 81 | 0.59 | | Civ | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 51 | 0.59 | | Tog | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 49 | 0.56 | | Sui | 38 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 59 | 46 | 13 | 61 | 0.54 | | Swe | 56 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 111 | 58 | 53 | 89 | 0.53 | | Tun | 51 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 80 | 0.52 | | Kor | 72 | 30 | 21 | 21 | 114 | 57 | 57 | 111 | 0.51 | | Ang | 39 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 60 | 0.51 | | Par | 49 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 58 | 58 | 0 | 73 | 0.50 | | Tri | 74 | 33 | 11 | 30 | 101 | 93 | 8 | 110 | 0.50 | | Gha | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 55 | 0.48 | | Crc | 70 | 29 | 14 | 27 | 101 | 92 | 9 | 101 | 0.48 | | Ecu | 55 | 22 | 12 | 21 | 62 | 68 | -6 | 78 | 0.47 | | Ukr | 40 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 56 | 0.47 | | Scg | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 40 | 0.43 | +------+------+------+------+-
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---+------+
I forsee a fantasy league based on picking group results and total points, and a sliding or cumulative pick 'em for the knockout rounds. I'm happy to organise this closer to the time. suddenly realises responsibility, hopes no one notices... posted by owlhouse at 10:00 PM CST on December 9 Thought you'd slide that one right by, didn't you owlhouse? You have less than 6 months and the clock is ticking... Great numbers, ricardo. there's certainly a huge difference in number of games played across the board. I'm assuming Scg is Serbia & Montenegro?
I welcome Ricardo, the new stats and table overlord. gspm, you have competition! btw, speaking of fantasy leagues, how come you commenters in this thread aren't on our SpoFi EPL fantasy league? C'mon what are ya waiting for?! Seriously, I'd hate to go up against Ricardo in a fantasy league. I think he would sweep the damn thing.
Of course it depends on the quality of opposition you face. If you routinely compete with piss-poor teams then your stats are going to look more impressive. But then again, you can only beat what's put in front of you.
Costa Rica, Trinidad and even the mighty Mexico face alot of the same team us Yanks face and we are ahead of the tri-colores and leaps and bounds above the other two. As for the tables, I did some data massaging, but I can't take all the credit. Most of these stats come from Elo Ratings. These are the same ratings, albeit modified to fit the football universe, chess players use.
England do not fare very well in Ricardo's table, especially not compared to all the big talk from Sven, Beckham and Owen. Not to mention this also supports my contention that Portugal should top Mexico in the group stage. Then again, look at Brazil's ranking but not too many fans would bet against them in a best of five or seven match series against any other national side. Wow, six months of trash talking, armchair analysis and rants. Excellent!
I had a look at the comparative fixtures that England and the USA played from 2002 onwards. Suffice to say I was right. You might want to put this date in your diaries - 23/06/06. That's when you'll be flying home. Good luck though.
One interesting tidbit: Soccernet.com is conducting a poll on which is the Group of Death with a 50-50 split between the U.S. Group and the Argentina Group after almost 40,000 votes. I wouldn't have thought it to be nearly that close.