Is it possible for the SpoFi Collective to ever win a Confidence Pool? I'm not a mathematician, but I think the answer would be no. Actually, the collective could win. Assume there are 4 teams in the pool (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit) and there are 6 competitors (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Let's assume the teams are ranked by the competitors like this (4 points for position one, down to 1 point for position 4): 1: A C D B 2: A B D C 3: A D C B 4: B A C D 5: C B A D 6: D B C A The "collective" choice is therefore: A B C D (A = 18 points [4*3 + 3*1 + 2*1 + 1*1], B = 15 points [4*1 + 3*3 + 2*0 + 1*2], C = 14 points [4*1 + 3*1 + 2*3 + 1*1], D = 13 points [4*1 + 3*1 + 2*2 + 1*2]). If the teams finish A B C D, then the collective would beat all of the individual members.
I assume he was not aware of the new points system for the tournament, since he allowed draws, which is useless with the current IIHF formula. That is correct, I was not aware that the IIHF had changed to that format until after the fact. I can put together a spreadsheet to calculate the confidence pool in this manner (3 points for regulation win, 2 for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss) if that is what the masses would like to do.
As a member of the masses and because I need all the help I can get PLEASE recalculate the spreadsheet to allow points for OT/SO and make it retroactive to the 1st set of games.......Thanks
Project Confidence (I love saying this) doesn't support other outcomes than win, loss or draw at the moment. So you can add: 5. Support different kinds of outcomes to award points: OTL, OTW, etc. Then I amend my previous statement to: 5,2,3,1,4
I can put together a spreadsheet to calculate the confidence pool in this manner (3 points for regulation win, 2 for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss) Would that scoring apply to all games including quarters, semis and such? Also, should the games for 5th to 8th place count in this pool? I'll work on modifiers to game results first, as they would have been useful for the Ryder Cup pool too.
Ok skater I am making it official - I think scoring should match the tourny scoring. Just my 2 cents. I don't really think it will help me but what the heck!
Would that scoring apply to all games including quarters, semis and such? Also, should the games for 5th to 8th place count in this pool? The easiest thing to do would be to to keep the scoring consistent through the whole tournament. All games count, even for 5th though 8th place.
i, too, think the scoring should reflect that of the tourney
I support whatever keeps me in the lead. I keed, I keed. I'm to lazy to figure out how that'll change the standings, but I think it'd be best for scoring to match the tourney. I hope Russia never wins another game though.
Actually, the collective could win. Strangely enough, I'm right in the middle of The Wisdom of Crowds.
OK, I'll work on result modifiers today. It's a fairly big change, actually, but one that will add a lot of flexibility. Also, if you prefer to keep a simple 2-0 points system, you can still vote for that, as it will still be supported.
Fris is probably going to have to go back through and re-enter the results so all the points breakdown correctly. Is it possible for him to edit those or is the new scoring system going to have to into effect in the next pool?
Here are what the standings will look like with the new scoring system.
MrFrisby will be able to edit old results. I'll most likely run them over myself while testing.
OK, I've updated Project Confidence. Not a small update. It's such a change that I had to temporarily disable new pool creation, because I'll have to redo this process. Complexity has its price. I've also entered the latest game results, and changed the only overtime result yet (Deutschland ber Amerika!). I'll pass the torch to MrFrisby from now on. So these standings should be identical to those computed by MrFrisby earlier.
Hey q - something is wrong here! I am still in last place. I think some new figuring is in order. I say give 3 points to the loser and none to the winner and see where that leaves us. Yeah that's it, that is what I really wanted.
Either way I'm third, so it don't matter to me which method is chosen.
Thanks for the effort q. Now if only I could get some wins out of the Slovaks.
Didn't I say those russians couldn't win another game? Well then! Why didn't they listen?
From 1st to 25th in the span of 24 hours. Wow. This is why I didn't brag about Germany.
Two days ago I was second. Now I'm second to last, and skydivemom's hogging the damned covers.
And the damn Slovaks still haven't had the courtesy to win a game.
I know, I expected more from those friggin Slovaks too. I was hoping the USA win would move me up a few spots but it didn't. Hopefully they can pull another one out against the Swedes tomorrow.
Those consolation round games (which I didn't really think about when I made my picks) are going to make things pretty interesting. Starting now, the crappy teams are going to be playing each other, and some of them are going to get a couple more wins ... I think we could still see some significant turnover.
I need a little more out of Sweden and the USA.
Slovakia still hasn't got a win, losing their first relegation round game to Switzerland. Could they be on their way to the B-Pool? Wow.
The grum scenario? The collective is now two points out of first, tied with SummersEve and behind only YYM. Bad day for me. I'm not sure I can still get back in this thing.
If Belarus, USA, and Russia can pull off wins today, that should help me get out of the cellar. I don't like sitting down there with Apoch and TBH. I hear they are a bad crowd. I call dibs on "The Grum Scenario" for the name of my next fantasy team.
a shoot-out?! oh crap!
phew
Can someone please explain how Johnathan Toews scored three times in the shoot out? What are the rules for selecting players for the shootout? After the initial 3, can ANYONE shoot again as often as they want? The grum scenario? The collective is now two points out of first, tied with SummersEve and behind only YYM. Just at a glance, if Sweden beats Russia (in regulation), Sweden beats Canada in the finals, and the US beats Russia in the 3rd place game, the SpoFi Collective would win the pool.
If the SpoFi Collective wins, does that mean every single one of us that participated gets a trophy? Would we each get one day with the trophy each month?
SDD has your answer, grum
I would love to win the trophy and the Costanza in the same pool. Unfortunately, I think that scenario is impossible. If we share the trophy, I'd like to have it next Thursday. I'm having some people over, and I'm one glass short.
I don't like sitting down there with Apoch and TBH. I hear they are a bad crowd. Dude, you couldn't hang with us if you tried...we're so badass, Greg Maddux crosses to the other side of the street when he sees us coming.
I'm such a conformist. I think like all of you combined.
Psst, can we just end this thing now?
This story from ESPN is highlighting some controversy over one of the US attempts in the shootout -- the one that ended up underneath Price. TSN has been silent on this point as far as I've seen.
No question the shot should have been reviewed," Rolston said. "If you have [video review] at the tournament, you have to use it. In that case, when the goaltender's pads are in the net, you'd think they'd at least want to look at that. We've looked, and the goaltender's pads are three-fourths in the net. Unless he's Harry Houdini " The problem is, there is absolutely no way for the overhead review could conclusively overrule the referee's decision based on the video evidence. They never saw the puck go in the net, and they couldn't be sure the puck WASN'T in the one-fourth of the pads outside the net. It wasn't like the puck was hidden inside a catching glove and the entire glove went into the net (in which case logic would state the puck had to be across the line). In this case, they don't know for sure WHERE it went, and keeper's pads didn't cross the line entirely. IF a review had been done, I don't see any way they could have overruled the referee (who said no goal). They might have said "inconclusive", in which case the referee's decision would stand.
This is funny... The Penguins watched the US-Canada game after practice. Players exchanged taunts and insults on subjects ranging from the limited schedule played by U.S. colleges to the size of Canada's navy ... U.S. defenseman Brooks Orpik gave the impression that it was in the Penguins' interest to have Canada win, because of the psychological fallout so many co-workers might have experienced if the United States had prevailed. "It's good that they won so half our team will be able to play on Friday." Canada has a navy?
Ton for ton, as modern and capable as any fleet in the world. Who do we think we're kidding? This being said, we do have the best junior player in the world. He plays for the Penguins. And grum is right about the video review. I'm not sure myself that that puck wasn't in, but there is no way to prove it. And I thought Price showed good instinct in stopping himself from sliding all the way into the net, and then spinning sideways while continually covering the puck. He played it smart.
Great, just friggin great. The Slovaks finally decide to start scoring. Something that would have been useful, YESTERDAY!!!
I am just realizing now that I did not join this pool. Ah well, I'll have the Costanza machine prepped for whoever claims the booby prize.
I'm up by one point. Arrgh, how much longer does this go on???
One more day. Two games. The only way I can see you losing is if Canada and the US win their games in regulation time. Then, NoMich would win. I've only looked at it quickly, though. Just trying to bait grum into running all the scenarios.
If Russia wins I'm pretty sure I'm taking home the Costanza.
