September 21, 2007

Irrational Panic. : It's like 1978 all over again . . . only not really at all (except to perhaps the special species of irrational, self-loathing, prepare-for-the-worst Red Sox fan typified by those upbeat kids at Boston Dirt Dogs).

read story | posted by holden to Baseball at 12:12 PM CDT (55 comments total)

On a related note, see also The Irrational Panic over Eric Gagne.

posted by holden at 12:14 PM CDT on September 21

Over at the Globe, Bob Ryan is pounding nails in the coffin, to wit:

Simply put, I fear that their best baseball is behind them, that what you saw as they were getting out to that 36-16 record and that big spread over the You-Know-Whos was the best baseball they could produce. Sure, if they could have started the playoffs in June when they were getting quality start after quality start and Okey-Dokey was untouchable and Youkilis was on base every five seconds and a few other things, they would have won. Then.

It's more rational than the fan panic, I suppose, but I still don't like it.

posted by lil_brown_bat at 12:35 PM CDT on September 21

1. The Yankees are very talented.

2. The sox were swept by the jays with 3 starters missing (manny, youk, coco) from their lineup. They've play the last month without their cleanup hitter. That has an effect.

3. If they can get those guys back playing at a reasonable level they'll be ok.

4. If the Yankees continue to play like they have been they deserve to win.

5. Anything can happen in the playoffs.

posted by justgary at 12:41 PM CDT on September 21

As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, let me also add that it's really not how you finish, but whether you make it in at all. Last year, I think the Cardinals lost something like 10 of their last 13 -- I'm pretty sure they coughed up somewhere around 6 games of a 7 game lead heading into the last weekend and needed a John Smoltz victory over the Astros to keep from having to play a make-up game and potentially a tie-breaker as well. I like the Red Sox as much as anyone in these playoffs.

posted by holden at 12:50 PM CDT on September 21

Records:

vs. East
Red Sox 40-29, 3 games remaining
Yankees 33-29, 10 games remaining

vs Central
Red Sox 20-11, 4 games remaining
Yankees 30-11, 0 games remaining

vs West
Red Sox 18-17, 2 games remaining
Yankees 15-16, 0 games remaining

Interleague
Red Sox 12-6
Yankees 10-8

Maybe this "collapse" was artificially created by a weird balance in the schedule, and that both teams were ultimately destined to win mid-90 games?

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 1:06 PM CDT on September 21

It's more rational than the fan panic, I suppose, but I still don't like it.

If the fan panic exists. It seems more like tired sportswriters who are fanning the flames.

posted by yerfatma at 1:41 PM CDT on September 21

I like it Crafty - it's rational. However, the Sox are something like 50-46 since May 29th and also may have peaked early with good health and a rotation that didn't have arms falling off (hello, Matasuzaka - I'm looking at you).

I was listening to the Sports Guys podcast with Erin Andrews (also an acknowledged Red Sox fan) and he has given up! Given up! He said he thinks the team isn't nearly as good as the Yankees. I would probably agree, but wow. Wow. It's not like the Yankees are pitching rich, exactly. Maybe all that LA Sun is sapping his New English Powers.

I'm kind of enjoying those podcasts, by the way. He actually asked Erin if she ever feels totally superfluous and eye-candy like as a sideline reporter. She had a good answer (and it wasn't "Hey. Fuck you").

Of course, the real question is: Will anyone remember any of this when the Angels and Indians are competing for the AL Banner? (I think the Yanks can take the Indians, but god help them if they have to play the Angels. God help whoeever has to play the Angels.)

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 1:48 PM CDT on September 21

I'm with TCS on this; after 2004 especially, I just can't get panicked. Yeah, I'm sure Yankee fans or sportswriters will think losing the division (should the Red Sox not start putting up wins) is monumental, or psychological... but it really isn't. Hell, once they clinch a playoff spot, they might as well field an all-September-callup roster and let their guys rest. Manny needs to get healthy then get a few at-bats before the playoffs. Ortiz needs to rest up, and won't be 100% due to the knee but can heal enough to be dangerous in the playoffs as always. The bullpen needs serious rest, like Okajima, so they can return to sharp form in the playoffs.

At the end of the season, all that matters is the wins you have totaled. It's in some ways "easier" to get those wins early, because in April games seem unimportant- but those wins are worth as much as wins in October. It's the artificial drama: if the season were played in reverse, it would look like the Red Sox came storming back in the last month; but those wins and losses are no different. The only reason an early hot start matters is because it means that your inevitable bad spell comes when the playoff picture is more shaped up. Remember the Yankee "panic" from the beginning of the season? Seems silly now that anyone thought a slow start would matter for a team as stacked as the Yankees.

The Red Sox, as of today, are one game behind for the overall lead of the best record in the majors, a spot they'd held much of the season- the season's not over, and they could still win the division and even have the best record in baseball. After all, they aren't playing catch-up, having a losing streak when they needed to have a push to get a playoff berth; they are still leading the division, and have a 7 game lead on the only team that could knock them out of the playoffs (the Tigers) with 9 to play. While it'd be a shame to not win the division, it'd be better for them to make the playoffs and be healthy than to burn out making the playoffs and have nothing in the bullpen or bench to get them through October.

If the Sox somehow lose every game from here on out, and the Tigers win 8 of 9 , then the Sox didn't deserve to make it- it isn't "tragic" because they happened to have their wins early, since their win total would end up less than the other 4 teams that make the playoffs. That really seems unlikely, and it's not worth panicking until they are actually in a do-or-die scenario in the final weekend.

posted by Hal Incandenza at 1:51 PM CDT on September 21

&otIf the fan panic exists. It seems more like tired sportswriters who are fanning the flames.

I have no idea how the media gauges the level of fan panic. Do they take a vote? The sox lose, I go to bed, wake up with headlines everywhere ;sox fans jumping off buildings". So although I don't see it, it's got to be true I guess. And I have no idea how Jim Donaldson gets paid to write that crap.

He said he thinks the team isn't nearly as good as the Yankees.

He can be funny. Baseball knowledge? Meh. It's not going out on a limb to say the Yankees are more talented. But that's the beauty of baseball. Most talent doesn't always win. You can look at the past series with the Yankees and easily see that the sox should have taken at least two, with all three starters pitching pretty well and the sox roughing up both pettite and wang. I felt good coming out of that series. Now, not so much.

And yes, it's easy to imagine the angels and indians making the east race moot.

posted by justgary at 1:59 PM CDT on September 21

I have no idea how the media gauges the level of fan panic. Do they take a vote?

Yeah, the Globe has a poll somewhere on their site, actually. Which, uh, validates everything, y'know. Cuz it's scientific. Or data. Or something.

posted by lil_brown_bat at 3:07 PM CDT on September 21

Well, they do have an alert system.

posted by justgary at 3:20 PM CDT on September 21

I'm with Hal on this one. Unlike past collapses (well, actually, this doesn't count as a collapse. Not yet, anyway), I don't feel the anxiety I used top at all. Instead, this year, I think I'd be more pissed than sad if they missed out. I guess with a World Series championship after all those years, we're allowed to feel like normal fans now. What a concept.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 3:27 PM CDT on September 21

I'm not panicked. I am just pissed about losing a 14.5 game lead. Or the 8.5 game lead. Or even the 5.5 game lead.

posted by jerseygirl at 4:00 PM CDT on September 21

I can't find a way to show record since All-Star Break; I had read last week the Sox had the 4th best record in baseball since the break (probably not still true). Seems hard to term that a "collapse". I like that Francona and Epstein can't even be bothered to answer those questions.

posted by yerfatma at 4:20 PM CDT on September 21

Right coasters, go figure. I do admit to being glad I don't have to read your sports pages, though. Insanity seems to be contagious particularly in the New England Sports Journalism circles. Not that it's different out here, it's just that nobody cares quite as much. You all can be almost as fun as the races themselves. Perhaps try having your team have no chance season after season to toughen up your resistence to the September swoon. In Seattle there is the July jaundice, abyssmal August, and screw September are the Seahawks playing?

Meanwhile, back in the rest of the universe..........

posted by THX-1138 at 4:24 PM CDT on September 21

I can't find a way to show record since All-Star Break;

Wow, I can't believe how hard that is to find. I couldn't track it down either.

Grum, please report to Aisle 9113. Wet cleanup also to Aisle 9113.

While we're waiting, this is kind of interesting. Evidently, Bill James found time to play with numbers, and he created the Pythagorean Win-Loss, which is a calculation of the expected win-loss record of teams based on their runs scored and runs allowed. Then there's a category called "Luck" which basically just gives the difference between the Pythagorean Win-Loss record and a team's actual record. The Yankees and Red Sox are the unluckiest teams -- as you'd expect (along with Toronto and KC) -- while the White Sox are lucky they aren't 8.5 games behind the Royals. Yowza.

Nobody's luckier than Arizona, though.

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 4:54 PM CDT on September 21

You know I used to go into full blown, self-loathing, step-back from the ledge, why do I root for these shitbags panic every year. Not just the years it was close, every year (insert comment about my lack of social life here). Then one year I was in Iraq being ridden mercilessly about how the Red Sox were absolutely being destroyed and how they didn't even show up for the LCS, and nobody has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit.

So here's two things that I learned:

1. Its only a fucking game.

2. It ain't over till its over.

I sleep a lot better now.

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 5:18 PM CDT on September 21

I sleep a lot better now.

That's 'cause it's not the playoffs yet. If the Sox and Yanks wind up playing each other again, I'm suing Fox for starting games at 8:30. I don't give a fuck about the West Coast. Even if Sox/ Yanks games weren't 50% longer than the average AL game, it'd be a crime to start them that late. I don't need to be up 'til 1 just to see a game end.

posted by yerfatma at 5:37 PM CDT on September 21

Fox's greatest crime against humanity is the continued employment of Tim McCarver as put forth in this eloquent article entitled Ruminations on a Baboon.

But I agree the start times suck as well

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 5:54 PM CDT on September 21

1. Its only a fucking game.

2. It ain't over till its over.

I sleep a lot better now.

I believe these are the central tenets of Buddhism.

posted by owlhouse at 6:05 PM CDT on September 21

The Pythagorean has been around for ages, TCS; so much so, that for a few years now I believe ESPN's standings page has the "Expanded" option, which shows the "Expected Win-Loss" column on the end, which is the Pythagorean calculation handily computed for you. It's kind of a useless formula, in some sense; it's remarkably accurate year after year, but since it only has meaning after the season is completed, it doesn't tell you anything in time to act differently; it just confirms what you probably already knew.

For those looking for post-All-Star numbers, they are also visible on the ESPN page, albeit in a non-intuitive way. Simply go to the Stats page, and choose "Team Pitching". Then you can do a split of "Post All-Star", and sort by Wins. Since the team stats of W/L and ERA also reflect its actual record (since every game has to have one winning pitcher and one losing pitcher), it shows you in a roundabout way which team has been doing well. New York, unsurprisingly, is at the top, with a 45-21 record- the next closest is Philadelphia, at 39-26. However, the Red Sox, even after their recent slide, are still 6th at 37-29, only two behind Philadelphia.

posted by Hal Incandenza at 6:13 PM CDT on September 21

Wow, I can't believe how hard that is to find. I couldn't track it down either.

Grum, please report to Aisle 9113. Wet cleanup also to Aisle 9113.

Well, there doesn't seem to be any way (on BBRef) to show team records after the All-Star Game, but you can see them on the individual team pages ("By Season Half").

Boston - .561
NYY - .682

posted by grum@work at 7:05 PM CDT on September 21

both teams were ultimately destined to win mid-90 games

2007 Projected Division Standings
by John Beamer
March 19, 2007

New York 95 67 53%
Boston 91 71 32%

posted by YukonGold at 7:08 PM CDT on September 21

If you're a Red Sox fan and you're listening to the game on the radio and you're listening to a gloomy game...
Know that next year, you'll probably have one less reason to be pissed off.

If you're outside the Shaw's Red Sox Radio Network this will mean nothing and I apologize

posted by YukonGold at 7:17 PM CDT on September 21

If this Red Sox thing isn't working out for you, I'm heavily recommending switching to the Devil Rays.

Zero expectations
Great draft picks
Raymond is one lovable blue bastard

posted by YukonGold at 8:21 PM CDT on September 21

I miss Trupiano. It's not the same at all.

posted by jerseygirl at 8:30 PM CDT on September 21

Beckett won his 20th game tonight, the Yankees just lost 5-4 in the 14th at home, and Boston's magic number is 2 over the Tigers to guarantee some kind of playoff berth. In effect, unless the Yankees have a losing streak to match their win streak, Detroit is soon to be mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt.

The 4 AL playoff teams are locked in; the only question is who finishes with the top record, and whether Boston or NY win their division. And since those two teams can't meet in the first round, this truly is much ado about nothing. Provided Seattle holds on to the 5-0 lead they have in the 7th, tomorrow morning will see 3 teams tied at 91 wins to lead the majors, with only Cleveland's half-game lead in the loss column giving the majors' best record.

No matter how it pans out, the AL pennant is going to be a wild ride...

posted by Hal Incandenza at 10:57 PM CDT on September 21

Beckett won his 20th game tonight
I am not a Sox fan, but congrats...Beckett is a beast- first to win 20 (easily). The games he doesn't win the Sox usually win anyhow,just not with him getting the decision. I think the Cy Young is his for the taking, he should start clearing a place for it now.

posted by urall cloolis at 11:31 PM CDT on September 21

Division, wildcard, both are meaningless to me. I want the Yanks to finish in whatever position means they won't have to play Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. On a side note, what is the deal with Anaheim an unwieldy names? Team names are pretty simple, city or state followed by the actual team name. There is no reason to involve counties, suburbs, boroughs or municipalities.

posted by HATER 187 at 1:15 AM CDT on September 22

Detroit is soon to be mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt.

*cries*

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 6:45 AM CDT on September 22

In the meantime, every single NL division leader has a 1.5 game lead after last night. While the NL East and NL West also rans will have a shot at the Wild Card, it's looking (unsurprisingly) like winner take all in the NL Central.

posted by holden at 7:01 AM CDT on September 22

Detroit is soon to be mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt.

*cries*

Tissue?

sincerely

Toronto Blue Jays fan

posted by tommytrump at 8:47 AM CDT on September 22

I think that next year the plan is to change their name to the Greater Los Angeles Metropolitian Area Formerly Known As California Angels. More simply abreviated as G.L.A.M.A.F.K.A.C.A

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 12:25 PM CDT on September 22

Maybe Gagne is tipping his pitches, or maybe curveball isn’t breaking very much, or whatever.

Jeff Blair sez:

Anybody who has seen Gagné close games for the Los Angeles Dodgers knows what's wrong: he has lost confidence in his swing-and-miss changeup and he's tentative with his fastball. When Gagné was closing games and winning a Cy Young Award with the Dodgers, each fastball was punctuated by a little hop to the side of the mound. That was absent at the Rogers Centre.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 12:39 PM CDT on September 22

I'm sympathetic, Ying Yang Mafia, but after all your team DID make the World Series just... when was it? Oh yeah, last year. :) And they have kept this season interesting until the last couple of weeks. I mean, I spoke too soon: while the magic number is 2 for them to be eliminated from the AL Central and for Boston to clinch a playoff spot, their un-magic number is 5, but with 8 to play. So the Tigers are technically not out of it, but it would take the Yankees utterly collapsing (going 4-5 while the Tigers go 8-0, or some combination similar to that), which seems unlikely.

Feel bad for tommytrump; as much as I am a Sox fan, I almost wonder if MLB should consider moving to a pure "top 4" system, with no divisional winners, and a balanced schedule (Toronto has to play twice as many games against divisional .500+ teams in BOS & NYY, while DET only had to play CLE), or even a "major/minor" league system like in soccer, where the top finishing teams are regrouped into their upper division. Toronto, and the other AL East teams, have the unique misfortune of playing against probably the two most consistently good, and well-funded, teams in the majors (#1 and #3 in payroll, I believe, with general managers who know how to use that money). If only one of those teams was in the AL East, Toronto could position itself for wild card runs; but as it is, they are kind of screwed.

A week ago, I would have said that Sabathia had as much claim as Beckett, but looking at it now, with the last two crucial quality starts/wins from Beckett, and how the statistical gap has narrowed, that it does seem that Beckett should be the only logical Cy Young winner in the AL. While Sabathia has far more innings (234/194), more strikeouts and fewer walks (205/36 to 188/40), they effectively have the same ERA, and those key stats aren't so different as to be too meaningful. Beckett's won more games, reached that "20 win" plateau, and done so against I'd argue more competitive teams. Unless I'm misreading the schedule, Beckett will be the only 20-game winner this year; the other three 18-game winners are on playoff contenders, and thus won't get a second start on those last days of the season if the playoff picture is secured.

While the voters shouldn't always be dazzled by wins alone, that "only 20-game winner" status, along with competitive stats and and decent shot at the ERA crown along with the win crown, should make this a fairly straightforward vote

posted by Hal Incandenza at 1:52 PM CDT on September 22

Toronto has to play twice as many games against divisional .500+ teams in BOS & NYY, while DET only had to play CLE

Toronto also plays Baltimore and Tampa Bay more than anyone else in the league.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 2:27 PM CDT on September 22

Toronto also plays Baltimore and Tampa Bay more than anyone else in the league.

whose records aren't all that much worse than Chicago's and KC's.

posted by goddam at 2:59 PM CDT on September 22

True. Although it isn't fair to not give the Twins credit. That said, Toronto is indeed at a disadvantage playing Boston and New York more than anyone else year in and year out. The same goes for Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 4:18 PM CDT on September 22

Ten reasons why the Red Sox will collapse.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 4:18 PM CDT on September 22

HOW THE FUCK DO PEOPLE GET THESE JOBS?

7. The Smug Race - There is no doubt baseball fans in New York and Boston border on the intolerable, wearing cockiness on their sleeves. But Red Sox nation has taken it to a new level after the 2004 World Series title. However, the Red Sox have done nothing since their historic championship to warrant gloating

Affects the team how?

Papelbon - The luster is off one of the best young closers in baseball.

Current ERA+: 231. That means he's more than 50% better than the average pitcher in baseball. Definitely a problem.

4. The Pink Hat Factor - The Red Sox always were the loveable losers, but not anymore. With a swelling fan base, they have become the chic club to root for with fans sprouting up all over the country.

Affects the team how? Did I just repeat myself? I wonder why the fuck I would have done that. I wonder why the fuck I would have done that.

1. Harsh Reality - Simply, they are the Red Sox and these things happen. History does not lie.

This is a shitty blog post. And yet it's not a blog post, it's on Yahoo sports. Congrats PA Sportsticker, you're a world-class outfit. Wait, you're just an aggregator? I'm sure you have terrific editorial standards.

posted by yerfatma at 4:53 PM CDT on September 22

...what is the deal with Anaheim...

Nothing is wrong with Anaheim, if you like towns that are former orange groves. (35 years ago I lived in an apartment in the middle of an orange grove in Santa Ana.) If Disney had never shown up, Anaheim would be nothing. I really think G.L.A.M.A.F.K.A.C.A has a nice ring to it.

Since this thread is about the possible (or probable, depending on whom you listen to) collapse of the Red Sox, I'll put in my 2-cents. No matter what happens in the next 8 games, they are in the post season. No matter whom they play in the best-of-5, they will have a great deal of difficulty winning without the 7th and 8th inning guys coming around. The starters aren't that bad. Beckett is better than anyone else he'll face on Cleveland or Anaheim (albeit marginally). Schilling has pitched well over his last 2 or 3 games, although without a decent result. Matsuzaka, with rest, might do well enough, but it looks like his problem is more in his head than in his arm. The same may be said for Gagne.

Like kyrilmitch, I sleep well at night.

posted by Howard_T at 5:02 PM CDT on September 22

1. Harsh Reality - Simply, they are the Red Sox and these things happen. History does not lie. As much as the 2004 World Series title was supposed to erase all the bad memories, 100-plus years of suffering just does not disappear. Ask any die-hard Sox fan. It is never easy. Get used to it, Boston.

Maybe the worst link I've ever read on sportsfilter.

posted by justgary at 5:57 PM CDT on September 22

4. The Pink Hat Factor - The Red Sox always were the loveable losers, but not anymore. With a swelling fan base, they have become the chic club to root for with fans sprouting up all over the country. Red Sox nation has an immigration problem with most newcomers not knowing Johnny Pesky from Johnny Damon. All the good will built up from the baseball gods? Gone.

Chic club to root for? I thought everyone hated the Red Sox?

1. Harsh Reality - Simply, they are the Red Sox and these things happen. History does not lie. As much as the 2004 World Series title was supposed to erase all the bad memories, 100-plus years of suffering just does not disappear. Ask any die-hard Sox fan. It is never easy. Get used to it, Boston.

Basically the "OMG HAHA CURSE OF THE BAMBINO IS BACK!" line. Yeah, not so much clown of ass.

No one likes Anthony Olivieri.

posted by jerseygirl at 5:58 PM CDT on September 22

The worst part of the article is the title. It should have been "why I hate the red sox and pray they don't win the world series". I can deal with hate, but don't disguise it with the false premise of an article with substance. Then you take away the personal reasons he hates the red sox and your left with great insights such as ortiz being hurt and manny having an off year.

posted by justgary at 6:20 PM CDT on September 22

jg1, please don't ever link to Yahoo Answers ever again. jg2, carry on.

posted by yerfatma at 8:39 PM CDT on September 22

Chic club to root for? I thought everyone hated the Red Sox?

Apparently not. Perhaps it is just easier to hate the ~~evil empire~~ Yankees instead.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 8:59 PM CDT on September 22

For the record I am a diehard Red Sox fan and yes, absolutely, 100% the 2004 World Series cured any baseball suffering that I had. More specifically the 2004 ALCS cured any baseball suffering that I had.

By the way the Tigers just lost so Sox magic # is 1 to clinch a playoff spot.

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 9:21 PM CDT on September 22

And with the Sox come from behind win they once again have the best record in baseball and are the first team to clinch a playoff spot. I would love to see what a team that isn't on the verge of implosion is capable of.

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 9:54 PM CDT on September 22

Soy numero uno!

posted by jerseygirl at 9:59 PM CDT on September 22

Are you now? Miro una puta. Seems like the Sox are the first team in the playoffs. Hard to panic over that.

posted by yerfatma at 10:01 PM CDT on September 22

I don't know what you said, but I think it wasn't good. But at least Boston's going to the playoffs!

posted by jerseygirl at 10:07 PM CDT on September 22

The post-game coverage by NESN is so weird. Tina Cervasio with the coveted "Curt-Schilling-Putting-On-Socks-At-His-Locker Interview"

posted by jerseygirl at 10:12 PM CDT on September 22

Miro una puta

thems fightin' words.

posted by goddam at 11:16 PM CDT on September 22

Panic definitely over then? Good. The Sox are back on top of the MLB standings, and the first team to clinch a playoff spot (and I'd argue the removal of that pressure will make them even looser in this last tuneup week and heading into the playoffs), and with the Tigers loss and Yankees win yesterday, the 4 AL, if not their positions, are basically locked up.

posted by Hal Incandenza at 1:26 PM CDT on September 23

thems fightin' words.

Essentially all foreign language I know revolves around insulting people. It's probably the American in me.

posted by yerfatma at 1:49 PM CDT on September 23

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