FanDuel - WFBC

December 15, 2006

New "toy" to play with at Baseball-Reference.com:
Want to know what Pedro Martinez's 2000 season pitching stats would look like if he played in 1968 for the Los Angeles Dodgers?
Click on the title link, choose the red link: "Neutralize Stats".
Choose 1968.
Choose NL.
Choose Los Angeles Dodgers.
Whoa.
(more inside)






posted by grum@work to baseball at 08:50 PM - 23 comments

Here is what happens: It takes the pitching (or hitting stats, if you want) and converts them from their real life context to one of a 162-game, 750 run league. From there, you can choose the year, league and home team (therefore home park). It makes all of the statistical adjustments based on your selections. (more details here) Want to see a very high run-scoring environment? Choose 2000, NL, Colorado. How would Babe Ruth's 60HR season look like with Coors Field as his home field in 2000? How does 78HR grab ya?

posted by grum@work at 08:51 PM on December 15

Barry Bonds' 2001 season, if he had played his home games in Colorado that year. 89HR .374/.565/.980 I'm worried I'm going to spend all weekend playing with this...

posted by grum@work at 08:57 PM on December 15

nice. it's the ultimate grumbait.

posted by goddam at 09:17 PM on December 15

Bob Gibson's 1968 translated into last year's St. Louis Cardinals is a still super-sick 28-4, 1.69 ERA, 1.073 WHIP. That said, notice that Pedro, with stats neutralized for the 1968 Dodgers, has only two seasons in his career with a WHIP above 1 -- and just barely (1.043 in 1992 and 1.003 in 1993). Incredible.

posted by holden at 10:25 PM on December 15

Was about to complain that this doesn't work, when I realized that the drop down lists take a LOOOOOOOOOONG time to appear, and half the time don't appear- once you select a team, it'll disappear the pitching stats. What's up with that? Cool idea, but terrible, terrible interface and implementation. In any event, those Pedro stats (when they finally showed up) are incredible. Not to discount Bob Gibson, but- well, this kind of discounts Bob Gibson.

posted by hincandenza at 11:17 PM on December 15

Not to discount Bob Gibson, but- well, this kind of discounts Bob Gibson. I wouldn't say it "discounts" Bob Gibson. It's more like it "validates" Pedro Martinez. If you reverse it (take a look at Bob Gibson's 1968 season in the context of 2000 Boston Red Sox), you'll see that Gibson still puts up outrageous numbers for that season. For a better understanding, click on this link and pull up two pitchers/hitters you want to compare and "neutralize" both their stats (don't choose a season/league/team, just the base "neutral"). Interesting comparisons: Sandy Koufax & Pedro Martinez Barry Bonds & Willie Mays Tom Seaver & Roger Clemens Was about to complain that this doesn't work, when I realized that the drop down lists take a LOOOOOOOOOONG time to appear, and half the time don't appear- once you select a team, it'll disappear the pitching stats. What's up with that? Cool idea, but terrible, terrible interface and implementation. I believe they are still working on it. Some players produce errors (Johan Santana), and sometimes you need to reload the page to get the javascript file to load correctly. The real "nice to have" would be to map a hitter/pitcher's career over a bunch of consecutive seasons. So take Pedro Martinez's career and have him play in the same seasons/parks as Sandy Koufax, starting in 1955 Brooklyn and continuing to (and beyond) 1966 Los Angeles.

posted by grum@work at 12:40 AM on December 16

Pretty interesting to play around with. I only got a couple to work before the interface bogged down interminably but still very interesting. The really nice thing, grum, would be to be able to port the results into one of the video games to play monster seasons against each other!

posted by fenriq at 01:07 AM on December 16

Interestingly, if you feed it Roger Maris' 61, and choose the Red Sox from that year... Maris has 63.

posted by Drood at 01:37 AM on December 16

Wow. Statporn at its finest. If you've made plans with grum any time in the next month or two, you might want to call ahead. If you plug Cy Young's career numbers into the '68 Dodgers, he wins 757 games, including three straight 50-win seasons! Sure, that implies a Groundhog-Day like career (hey, it's '68 again!), but still. port the results into one of the video games to play monster seasons against each other! fenriq, I would bet that that's very close to happening.

posted by chicobangs at 11:55 AM on December 16

Statporn... I like that:)

posted by Drood at 01:43 PM on December 16

Try checking out Ty Cobb's batting average if he played for the 2000 Rockies. Holy Cow!

posted by hellapuckboy at 02:13 PM on December 16

As for discounting Bob Gibson, maybe you should try plugging him in with the '68 Dodgers. I'd say those make for some pretty impressive stats as well.

posted by hellapuckboy at 02:18 PM on December 16

Didn't they use to pitch complete games back then nowadays your lucky getting 6 innings out of the starter

posted by luther70 at 02:26 PM on December 16

This is scary-ridiculous. Awesome.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 02:28 PM on December 16

There's a discount on Bob Gibsons? Boy, I hope the Phillies hear about that. P.S. I think I have a man-crush on Grum. This is awesome.

posted by SummersEve at 02:40 PM on December 16

Yeah, there used to be a lot more complete games. Try checking out Christy Mathewson, btw. First check out his complete games to total games pitched stats, then try him on the '68 Dodgers. Unbelievable!

posted by hellapuckboy at 02:44 PM on December 16

lmao, Summers:)

posted by hellapuckboy at 02:49 PM on December 16

So what have we learned today?

  • Chavez Ravine in 1968 was a pitching haven.
  • Coors Field in 2000 was a hitting paradise.
  • Great pitchers and great hitters do well anywhere you put them.
  • Extreme ball parks make for some wacky stat translations.
  • Statistics can be fun!

posted by grum@work at 03:03 PM on December 16

Just think of the possibilities, in 1968 Pedro could go out and pick a fight with a much younger Don Zimmer!

posted by americanleague at 07:46 PM on December 16

Interesting to note when you put Nomar on the '68 Dodgers he still gets hurt all the time. Go figure. But definately a good link

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 09:56 PM on December 16

Doesn't work for me. Put Ted Williams on any Yankee team of his era (39 - 60) and he hits less home runs for his career than he actually did. I think Ted would have benefitted from a shorter right field porch in Yankee Stadium than Fenway, also put him in some of those line-ups where he wouldn't have been pitched around as much. What do you think, an extra 5 to 10 homers a year?

posted by GOD at 12:29 PM on December 17

I predict I'll be fired by Tuesday.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 12:30 PM on December 17

Doesn't work for me. Put Ted Williams on any Yankee team of his era (39 - 60) and he hits less home runs for his career than he actually did. I think Ted would have benefitted from a shorter right field porch in Yankee Stadium than Fenway, also put him in some of those line-ups where he wouldn't have been pitched around as much. What do you think, an extra 5 to 10 homers a year? They don't take actual physical dimensions of the park into their calculations, but use overall park factors and league factors to determine the run scoring environment. There is a full explanation here. You would need detailed play-by-play information (including hit location) for every game of every season in order to properly adjust results based on actual park dimensions. I'm not sure exactly how long MLB has been doing it, but they are compiling a database of every single hit (field location and type (ground ball, line drive, fly ball, pop up)). It may be possible to do this comparison in the future, but only from 2000 (or so) forward. Maybe in 50 years people will be doing comparisons between Albert Pujols and his son...

posted by grum@work at 01:29 PM on December 17

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