Suns go from Run and Gun to Ground and Pound

Another article with analysis from Sam Smith. It's a huge risk by new GM Steve Kerr to win the championship, motivated by the Lakers getting Gasol and the Mavs gunning for Shaq.

posted by dusted at 09:15 AM - reply - flag:

As far as I can tell this trade has not been finalized.

posted by sic at 09:32 AM - reply - flag:

If it does go through, which it probably will, it seems like a major reach for the Suns. What are they doing this for at this time? They are playing well, and they won't be getting the Shaq of several years ago. He's out-of-shape and won't really fit the Suns' running style. Another minor issue is he's completely broken down. I suppose they could have him just sit around and rest up for the playoffs, but giving up Marion, even though they are desparate for a big body in the middle, is a huge risk. I guess the pressure for Phoenix to get a ring this year is greater than anyone really knew.

posted by dyams at 09:42 AM - reply - flag:

Wow, I just don't see this working out well for the Suns if it goes down, but who knows. If the Suns intend to maintain any sort of up-tempo style, there is going to be a lot of 4 on 5 play in the Suns offensive end.

posted by holden at 09:44 AM - reply - flag:

They may have done this to keep him off another Western Conf roster. I don't see any other reason to do this. Maybe if he rests a good bit of the second half of the season he can be a force in the playoffs. If by chance the Suns catch the Lakers in the playoffs I bet Shaq reverts to old form for a few games.

posted by curlyelk at 09:58 AM - reply - flag:

This would at least allow Stoudemire to play PF, which is definitely a better fit for him. Definitely a risky trade.

posted by aerotive at 11:12 AM - reply - flag:

Risky trade but this is still Shaq we're talking about here. Yeah, he might be a little older than when he came to Miami from L.A., but given that the Suns are in position to play for a championship this season, that alone can give Shaq the motivation he sorely needed in order to play thru the injuries and his pending divorce. Those key issues have de-railed Shaq's season so far but maybe a change of scenery and playing for another ring can help Shaq revive his career as well as help the Suns in the long run. Just a thought.

posted by BornIcon at 11:34 AM - reply - flag:

This trade has bad news written all over it. Trading Marion eliminates one of the two defenders the Suns have (Bell being the other). It puts way too much pressure on Stoudemire to produce, and on Shaq to find the fountain of youth. This trade would put Phoenix another 2 years from any meaningful cap space (the remaining length on Shaq's deal is 2 yrs, $40 M!), and without any good draft picks (since they've largely traded picks away to avoid paying a locked-in rookie salary, for cap purposes, oh the irony). All that for Shaq, who has proven he is well on the downward trajectory of his career. Shaq will not be as effective as David Robinson in the twilight of his career. Remember, the Admiral actually took a smaller role in the Spurs offense, played D and rebounded while Duncan took over. I doubt Shaq will submit to that. Hell, Shaq said he wouldn't in '04. If anything, Shaq will probably be injured for a great portion of his remaining contract. It would have been smarter to let Marion play through the season and see if anyone else was willing to pay him the MAX. If someone takes him off your hands, hey you now have $18 mill to get a serviceable starter and replenish a very weak bench. If the market is unkind, you get the Matrix back at a more reasonable price. And if the Suns felt they needed to get something in return, they should have worked harder at trying for Okafor or Dalembert, both of whom are better fits. To recap:Lost cap flexibilityReceived no picksShortened the benchMakes even more public your unease with the Coach and his offense

posted by lilnemo at 12:00 PM - reply - flag:

Well, if the trade goes through it's a calculated risk to win a championship now before the window of opportunity closes forever on this particular group. Nash and Hill are old and don't have that many seasons left at a high level and when Nash goes that's it for them. I suppose the hope it that Shaquille can come up with one good playoff run or perhaps two (forget the regular season though). On the other side of the ball, Marion wanted out, wants out, and will want out in the future. He cannot stand being the "third guy" behind Nash and Amare. He's been a distraction and apparently the Suns are tired of it and have been trying to get rid of him for a while now. One thing has to be clear at this point: the Suns are probably not good enough to win a championship as is. They needed to do something and so they are rolling the dice with Shaquille. If things don't work out (or even if they do) two years from now Nash and Shaquille's contracts both come off the books and they can start over building around Amare and Barbosa. Will it work? Who knows? But you have to admire a franchise that goes all in, instead of playing a decent but non-winning hand over and over.

posted by sic at 01:08 PM - reply - flag:

I'm sure this sounds crazy, but i'm not convinced that Shaq is completely over the hill. Sure, he may not be 25 anymore, but Shaq has shown a tendency in the past to underperform when not "properly motivated." I think that we all could be in for a big surprise when Shaq arrives at a team with a real chance to win a ring. Now, the interesting part will be if he can accept his role as the 3rd (or even 4th) guy in order to get the ring. Either way, i think that Shaq has a bit more in the tank, but plays on a weak team right now and so doesn't come to play.

posted by brainofdtrain at 01:21 PM - reply - flag:

One thing has to be clear at this point: the Suns are probably not good enough to win a championship as is. They needed to do something and so they are rolling the dice with Shaquille. If things don't work out (or even if they do) two years from now Nash and Shaquille's contracts both come off the books and they can start over building around Amare and Barbosa. Great point sic.

posted by brainofdtrain at 01:21 PM - reply - flag:

Either way, i think that Shaq has a bit more in the tank, but plays on a weak team right now and so doesn't come to play. I (slightly) disagree with this sentiment. Before the season started the Heat were a solid pick to take the Southeast division again. They brought back the core of their team (Wade, Shaq, Haslem, Zo, Williams), and got rid of Walker while bringing in the more atheletic Davis. There was no reason to believe that the Heat wouldn't at least make the playoffs. So there shouldn't have been any reason for Shaq not to "come ready to play" for the Heat this season, and certainly not when you're pulling down $20 mill. I believe other people in the League who do that are labeled as "stealing money". One thing has to be clear at this point: the Suns are probably not good enough to win a championship as is. They needed to do something and so they are rolling the dice with Shaquille. If things don't work out (or even if they do) two years from now Nash and Shaquille's contracts both come off the books and they can start over building around Amare and Barbosa. Assuming Nash picks up his '10 option and the Suns don't bring him back for '11 and beyond, Amare can opt out the same year ('11). The only guaranteed money for '11 belongs to Barbosa and Diaw. And I remind you that Amare has been on the block off and on since his knee surgery. And, Oh by the way, you'd be looking for a new coach as well. If this trade doesn't work out, the Suns might have to rebuild from the ground up. This brings up the question of whether its better to win consistently year to year with a chance at the Finals, or whether you go all in for one good season and suck for at least the next three. I'd prefer my team win consistently and have a handful of valuable assets available each season. But I won't argue that here. I'll just ask Suns fans to take a good look at the Heat; roster, record and all, right now before the trade. Now ask yourself is that what I want my team to look like in a season or two?

posted by lilnemo at 02:41 PM - reply - flag:

This does not seem like a good idea on the Suns part. They play a very up-tempo game and Shaq does not fit into that equation. Obviously Marion has been a malcontent but I think his contributions outweigh what Shaq brings to the table.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:18 PM - reply - flag:

Shaq is notoriously less-than-motivated during the regular season and it seems that he needs a trade every few years to light a fire under his ass. Expect his health to improve and his contribution to be significant. Ufez is counting on it.

posted by geekyguy at 06:20 PM - reply - flag:

The only reason Shaq and the Suns are doing this is because of the Gasol deal. The Suns knew that they could no longer compete and Shaq wants to try to stick it to Kobe one last time. Well, this surely isn't the way to do it. With Shaq, the Suns will fall into the 6th ,7the , or 8th seed come playoff time. Shaq is DONE! He was great. The 3rd most dominant big man of all time (respect to Chamberlin and Russell)! However playing at 330+ lbs has finally taken its toll on his body. He can barely dunk anymore. When he was with the Lakers he could catch lobs that were over or near the top of the backboard. Now you could barle slide a piece of paper beneath his feet when he jumps. The Suns are trying to say that they are making the trade for defensive reasons? Please! Shaq is a defensive liability. He has been picking up fouls like crazy the last two years. Plus most of the big men in the West have face-up games and can go right past him (and it's hard to block shots with a 1mm vert). The Suns have made themselves better suited to play against...Houston? Yao is the only big man in the west that Shaq can actually defend effectively. Instead of Barkley vs. Some old Ref, they should have Yao and Shaq run a race at half-time of the all-star game. I bet Charles could smoke both of them. All this talk about how Shaq is unmotivated in the regular season is BS. When he was good, he was good all year. The last two years he has averaged under 20pts per game and hasn't done a thing in the playoffs. Plus, he never sucked in the regular season and then became dominant in the playoffs, and that is what he would need to do this year.

posted by docshredder at 07:11 PM - reply - flag:

I thought this was a joke when I heard it. The money alone is reason enough not to do this trade. Shaq is not worth 20 mil per at this point and it doesn't look like he ever will come close again. My head hurts, I can't beleive this is real. Are the Suns even a better team if Shaq miraculousely gives you 20 and 10? I don't think so. It seems like they have to turn their whole system on it's head to accomadate Shaq and that's gonna take some time. There had to be better options out there that wouldn't so dramatically alter their offense.

posted by tron7 at 10:07 PM - reply - flag:

This brings up the question of whether its better to win consistently year to year with a chance at the Finals, or whether you go all in for one good season and suck for at least the next three. I'd prefer my team win consistently and have a handful of valuable assets available each season. That's an interesting question that I've discussed elsewhere. What is more important to a franchise, a fan base, a city, winning one championship or being a good team over the course of many years but never winning the whole thing? I think the Suns made the right choice here. Sure it's a risk, but they are going to lose something special in Nash relatively soon and it didn't appear that they would ever win the championship without a low post presence. The Suns have been great (but not good enough!) for several years now. I think they should go for the championship now and take a 2 year hit on the salary cap with O'Neal's contract. Marion was going to be gone regardless so to me that is a non-factor. The comparison with the Heat is apples and oranges. The Heat are made up of old broken down players and one young stud who is also playing injured. The Suns are loaded with talent, some of it great. The loss of Marion and the contract of O'Neal will not drag this team down to Miami's level, not this year not next year.

posted by sic at 02:35 AM - reply - flag:

This is a move that had to happen if the goal is honestly to win a championship. It is no secret that the Suns are not built for the playoffs. They aren't deep and have made only one conference final in the last three years despite great regular season records. It's no secret that Shaq is a perpetual underperformer throughout the regular season. He is a different guy in the playoffs. It's no secret that the window of opportunity for the Suns is probably closing. It's no secret that Marion wanted out and it was affecting the team. It's no secret that Amare is the worst defensive centre in the league. It's no secret that the Lakers got Gasol. The Suns feel that this is potentially the best shot at a title this year. The Spurs don't look as dominant, the Lakers are in the mix and the West is more open this year - yet still full of good teams. They are interested in one year of Shaq. In fact, they're willing to pay $40 million extra for essentially one good month of Shaq. And whether or not you'd prefer a series of playoff runs over a one-and-done title is immaterial - the Suns have already done the former. The job at hand is winning a championship. Now. My bet is they now look at snagging a back-up PG. All in all - how could you call this a risky move? They weren't winning it with Marion (and Banks is just a bad contract), weren't winning it with Amare at the 5 and weren't going to do anything different this year. I don't think it's risky, so much as necessary if your goal is ultimately winning the championship. The Suns have made that part known for a while - ever since they tried to deal Amare for KG in the off-season. Whether or not it will work is the question. Whether or not they should have done it is only answerable if there was a better trade out there.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:58 AM - reply - flag:

I still keep waiting to find out that this whole story was drummed up by The Onion. I see your points, Weedy, and perhaps I'm letting the Big Aristotle play mind games with me, but I just don't see him as the force he used to be, and I can't believe he's still worth a two-for-one, especially when one of those two is Shawn Marion. I do think it'll be interesting to see Marion with Wade, though, and I'm curious to see how Riley's going to deploy The Matrix.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 10:19 AM - reply - flag:

All in all - how could you call this a risky move? 1. It's a stylistic mismatch. 2. The money is bad. They could have let Marion go at the end of the year and signed a big. 3. Shaq is old. If he's washed up or hurt the Suns have given away Marion and handcuffed themselves capwise. 4. The Suns are busting up a nucleus that's been winning 60 a year. They haven't won a championship but they haven't had much luck either. Amare was injured a couple years ago and the Amare suspension last year. The Suns were deffinately a top contender. With the new Laker front line and the benefit of Amare moving to the 4, I can see why they wanted a center but Shaq is just the wrong answer.

posted by tron7 at 11:42 AM - reply - flag:

This brings up the question of whether its better to win consistently year to year with a chance at the Finals, or whether you go all in for one good season and suck for at least the next three. As they say in baseball, "Flags fly forever". I think if you can make a change to your team that gives you (in your opinion) a better than 66% chance of winning the whole thing, you go for it. However, if the chance of winning is only an incremental amount (trading for a 3rd liner in hockey, or a 5th pitcher in baseball, or a bench player in basketball), and the cost is more than just a single player or a single draft pick (multiple draft picks or young stars), then it's not worth the effort. Examples: Yankees trading Soriano to get ARod? Excellent trade (but it just didn't translate into a World Series). Thrashers trading a bunch of picks and players for Tkachuk? Terrible trade. This one? It remains to be seen how the Suns utilize Shaq (and, of course, his health).

posted by grum@work at 11:46 AM - reply - flag:

The Heat are made up of old broken down players and one young stud who is also playing injured. The average age of all the players who've suited up for the Heat this season (pre-trade) is 27.8 years old. If you remove Penny (waived) and the injured Zo, that number drops to 26.6 years old. The average age of the Suns? 28.7 years. But we'll come back to this. The Suns are loaded with talent, some of it great. The loss of Marion and the contract of O'Neal will not drag this team down to Miami's level, not this year not next year. Heat fans were making this same claim before the season started. The Suns have gone from a 9 man rotation, to 8, since they also gave up Banks who was a serviceable (if overpriced) back up to Nash. Shortening the bench is going to increase the usage rates of steady rotation players. This can be problematic for the Suns roster as many of the players have suffered from recurring usage based injuries: Nash (ankle, hamstring, back), Stoudemire (both knees), Barbosa (left knee), Bell (back, right knee), Diaw (back), Grant Hill (ankle, etc.), and now Shaq (knees, hip). The Suns can't afford to wait for Shaq to work into game shape while they grind towards the playoffs. Who replaces Marion's scoring, rebounding and defense until then? Who's going to take over ball-handling responsibilities as Nash's backup? Is Shaq going to be able to stay in games stamina-wise, or foul-wise long enough to make a sustained contribution? My original point stands, by gambling on this trade the Suns have shortened their bench, lost cap space, and will have to "make adjustments" to accommodate Shaq on both ends of the floor.

posted by lilnemo at 03:40 PM - reply - flag:

I think the addition of Shaq makes more sense this year than last. Is it a sylistic mismatch? Yep. But the style that Phoenix plays in the regular season and the style that is employed in the playoffs are different. Shaq will make more a difference when it counts. And I'm sure that Nash can work with Shaq. I'm really not too worried about this. Can they replace Marion's contributions offensively? Yes. Diaw will see more time and Amare moving to 4 when Shaq's in is a biiiiiiiig deal. That's a mis-match for every team in the league. Shaq will make Amare better (or, at least, he should). The money? Clearly not an issue. They don't care. They've loaded for the here and now. Besides - Shaw may be untradeable, but they could blow the team up if needed a year from now. It will all be worth it if they get the championship. 4. The Suns are busting up a nucleus that's been winning 60 a year. They haven't won a championship but they haven't had much luck either. Amare was injured a couple years ago and the Amare suspension last year. The Suns were deffinately a top contender. I see no issue with this. It's clear in this day and age that you can run and gun to 60 wins and still bow out in the second round. While the Suns boast 2 great exterior defenders in Marion and Bell, they have the most pourous interior defense going. Shaq again, can make a guy like Bell better. I'm not saying it will all work - I'm saying it's worth a shot.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 04:10 PM - reply - flag:

I see no issue with this. It's clear in this day and age that you can run and gun to 60 wins and still bow out in the second round. While the Suns boast 2 great exterior defenders in Marion and Bell, they have the most pourous interior defense going. Shaq again, can make a guy like Bell better. Or, from the Warriors standpoint: It's clear in this day and age that you can run and gun to an 8th seed and still blow-out the #1 seed in the first round. I saw that D'Antoni said that Shaq would improve their 1/2 court offense. How are Nash and Barbosa going to make it to the basket with Shaq's big 'ol butt blocking the lane? With Amare at the 5 he was able to step outside and bring defenders with him, Shaq is ineffective outside of 5-7 feet.

posted by docshredder at 06:13 PM - reply - flag:

Nemo, you make good points about age and health, but I think they just reinforce Phoenix's urgency to win now. Marion just wasn't happy and it seems like he was hurting team chemistry with his negativity (no way they would have extended him a max contract). Shaq's huge contract only hurts them capwise for two years, that's a short-term negative. So in the end this boils down to spending money. Apparently they have the money to pay the luxury tax (do they even have to?) so I think it's a good gamble for a short term payoff, with no long term negatives. Anyway, everything depends on Shaq's health and attitude.

posted by sic at 06:22 PM - reply - flag:

Wow, they have wasted no time with the branding. Nicely done Photoshop, I suspect.

posted by geekyguy at 07:40 PM - reply - flag:

Or, from the Warriors standpoint: It's clear in this day and age that you can run and gun to an 8th seed and still blow-out the #1 seed in the first round. And promptly lose in the second round. The Spurs have done well because they can play either game - run and gun or half court. Shaq gives Pheonix a chance to grind out plays when the match-ups call for it. Remeber that the Showtime Lakers had Jabbar - he couldn't run down the court if his ass was on fire. But he could hit a back-to-the-basket shot when they needed it. Shaq provides Phoenix an option they were lacking. He's only going to play 30 minutes a night (if that). They'll still be a running team otherwise.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 09:35 AM - reply - flag:

A gamble worth taking for Phoenix. Winning 60 games, not making the finals, wasting Nash's best years. Time for a shake up. I wonder if Dallas considered this move? Concerning the Miami Heat: Yes, they may have sold out the short term future for only one NBA title, but that's one more than the Hawks or Clippers have. I seem to recall this sort of debate about the Cowboys and 49ers in the 90's. Accept payroll handcuffs tomorrow for one last Lombardi trophy today. I do look at the Heat differently because they have that NBA title. They've won, they know it's possible to do so again and their fans know (probably expect) it too. I think that even a future Heat owner is under obligation to do more than pay lip service to the idea of winning championships, due to that one Lawrence O' Brien trophy. "Flags fly forever." I like that phrase. I'll bet the Florida Marlins like it too.

posted by Newbie Walker at 11:53 PM - reply - flag:

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

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