I remember thinking Tony LaRussa's decision to start Carpenter in the All-Star game was because they were in the same organization. But after watching Carpenter dominate the major league's for the last 5 months, that was the right choice. Carpenter is hands down the best pitcher in the NL this year and deserves the Cy Young. To round out my top five NL pitchers this year they are: Clemens, Willis, P. Martinez and the Nats John Patterson
About a month ago, I was completely on the side of Clemens winning the Cy Young. The wins statistic as a measurement of pitching ability is bogus for two reasons: The pitcher has absolutely no control (or minimal control, if they are in the NL) of how his team produces runs. If his team never scores a run, he'll never get a win. Blaming the pitcher for not winning a game is like saying you won't date someone because their sibling is really ugly. It's not their fault, it is not under their control, and it really shouldn't be held against them. Pitcher A can throw 8 innings of shutout baseball and leave the game with a 2-0 lead. The "closer" could come in, cough up 2 runs in the top of the 9th and then get the "win" if his team scores a run in the bottom of the 9th. A pitcher gets the win by sitting in the dugout when his team scores the "go ahead run". It's a silly statistic.After saying all that, I'd give it to Carpenter (at this point). He's leading in IP, BB/9IP, K/9IP, K/BB, and CG while Clemens leads in ERA and WHIP. While the last two categories are pretty damn important, it's the IP difference and the complete games that push me (ever-so-slightly) to the side of Carpenter at this point. The Win Share totals give Clemens a big edge too (24 to 18), but I don't tend to put too much weight in them for pitchers until the end of the season. However, there is still a month to go. If Clemens goes 4-0 and Carpenter goes 0-4, and Clemens ERA stays where it's at but Carpenters goes up 0.25, then I can definitely see why Clemens would be my choice. But in terms of the baseball writers who do the actual voting on the Cy Young, it's already been awarded to Carpenter in their minds because of thoughts like this: Joe Morgan: Everything you have said depends on the team. ERA also depends on errors and how good the team plays. If the team makes mental mistakes, the pitcher still pays for it. The game is still wins and losses. The Pirates led the league in ERA in 1989 or around there. The finished last. I guarantee you those pitchers would have rather had wins. You don't send a pitcher out to the mound and say "get a good ERA." You want him to win games. A good ERA might come with wins, but the wins and losses are the most important. If you had a guy with a .001 ERA but never won a game and another guy had a 3.5 ERA and won 25 games, who would you give the award to? Wins and losses is the column that matters most.
It's a silly statistic. I should have said "It's a silly statistic for pitchers."
great stats. I agree, Clemens has done a great job but has not been as dominant this year as Carpenter.
I'd certainly give the award to Clemens at this point. It's Clemens season that people will in 50 years look back on in amazement, not Carpenter's. Clemens has simply pitched better than Carpenter despite pitching half his games in a park well established as a terrible park for pitchers. Starting pitchers have about 30% control, at best, over what their W-L record is, so I consider that statistic to be completely irrelevant. It's a scoring artifice; pitchers don't or lose games any more than left fielders do. Baseball would do just fine - actually, it would be a better game, since managers wouldn't try to push their pitchers to give them 5 innings when they can't - if the stat had never existed in the first place. The writers, of course, will give the award to Carpenter, because he has many more wins. Carpenter is having a Cy Young worthy season, of course - we're not talking about LaMar Hoyt in 1983 or even Clemens in 2001. He's way better than any pitcher in the AL this year (as is Dontrelle Willis as well). I'm still looking if anyone in the AL will step up in September to end up with a Cy Young worthy season - Bartolo Colon looks like the best bet as of now.
No for Clemens. ERA is the most important statistic in measuring a pitcher's performance over the course of a season, but there are other factors as well. Carpenter has pitched so many more innings (you want your best out there as long as possible), has more strikeouts, has the best strikeout/walk - and all the other stats grum mentioned - and has beaten the best the league has to offer against him heads up - including Clemens. It is Carpenter's; he has been the best and beaten the best. If Clemens had pitched more, he'd get more consideration - but I'd put him behind Dontrelle for CY Young into third. Carpenter has also pitched the best game in the ML this year and has 3 of the top five games pitched in the NL. Clemens has none. Sorry - pitching six beautiful innings every fifth day is tremendous - but it pales in comparison to what Carpenter is doing.
Carpenter kept his thumb on his end of the balance last night in St. Louis against the Mets. His line was typical: 7IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7K, ERA falling to 2.21, 96-63 (pitches-strikes). LaRussa pulled him to keep him strong down the stretch and give the bullpen a couple innings. Fact is, the Rocket has been the best 6 inning pitcher in baseball this season. But the number of innings Carpenter has pitched beyond the 7th (48 vs Clemens 24), and the fact that all of his relevant stats IMPROVE in the late innings (where Roger's all get worse) makes him the pitcher you'd pick to head up your rotation if you got to choose on Opening Day. Carpenter's stats from the 7th on: INN - 48 ERA - 1.29 (7 runs in 48 complete) appearances - 26 (out of 29 starts) OpBA - .175 (30 hits for 177 batters) OpOBP - .203 (those 30 hits plus 5 (FIVE) walks) OpSLG - .246 K - 39 K/9 - 7.2 K/BB - 7.8 (obscene) WHIP - 0.7 To find late-inning stats similar to these you have to go to the only members of the reliever corps whose names have even been mentioned in this year's CY debate: Rivera and Cordero. Take a look at them. Carpenter's numbers in the late innings are equal to or better than those being posted by what some consider one of the best relievers ever, having one of his best seasons. Now, if you knew going into the season that in 26 of his first 29 starts Carpenter was going to take the mound in the 7th, pitch another 1 2/3 and do THAT, it would be foolish not to take him over every other pitcher in the game. Look at Clemens' late inning stats and tell me a pitcher has little or no impact on whether his team wins or loses.
