October 09, 2010

$5 Bettor One Win Away from 15-Team $100,000 Parlay: If the San Francisco 49ers plus 3 are a winner against the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, an unnamed Delaware bettor will hit all 15 teams in a $5 parlay bet and collect $100,000 in winnings. The odds for that parlay are 32,000 to 1, but the bettor can hedge bets and guarantee a $50,000 payday.

posted by rcade to football at 09:55 AM - 11 comments

someone back east with a last name that ends in a vowel will be offering him a job in the not-so-distant future.

posted by bdaddy at 09:48 AM on October 09

Coy Privette?

posted by beaverboard at 10:33 AM on October 09

I wasn't aware that sports betting was legal in Delaware. It's also allowed in Montana and Oregon in addition to Nevada.

It's a bit ridiculous it isn't legal elsewhere, considering that gambling is now such an acceptable pursuit in the U.S. that governments run lotteries.

posted by rcade at 11:50 AM on October 09

You have to hedge in this situation, no? Even if you need to find an investor to cut in for some percentage, $50,000 return from $5 is nothing to sneeze at.

posted by Rock Steady at 01:01 PM on October 09

I definitely think you have to make the opposing $50,000 bet.
(or whatever money you can raise)

posted by grum@work at 02:36 PM on October 09

It's a bit ridiculous it isn't legal elsewhere, considering that gambling is now such an acceptable pursuit in the U.S. that governments run lotteries.

Did Pete Rose say this?

posted by roberts at 02:43 PM on October 09

I was a little confused by the betting system proposed in that article, but it sounds like the parlay has guaranteed him $50,000 so far, so to speak- so if he gets someone to lend him $50,000 he can place a bet on the opposing team and either lose that $50,000 bet but get the parlay for $100,000, or lose the parlay but in doing so win an additional $50,000 from his Vegas bet.

So if he can find someone with a basic set of math skills and plenty of disposable cash, he can guarantee himself $50,000, no more or no less- is that right? Minus the cut the lender would want, although an enterprising bank has to see this is as an easy way to make a few grand if they offer him a short-term deal of say $1-2,000 for a two day loan.

Alternately, he can turn off his TV, and wait until the next day to figure out if he won the full $100,000... or $0.

posted by hincandenza at 03:08 PM on October 09

Actually, I'm a little confused by this part:

On the original parlay card, the Eagles, after two straight wins and with a hot Michael Vick, were three-point favorites. So, the Delaware player has the 49ers, plus-three points.

After Sunday's debacle, Vick's injury and the winless 49ers' perceived desperation, the 49ers are now three- to 3 1/2-point favorites.

Vegas only offers 1/2 point lines since that avoids the tie scenario, but is the original parlay on a 3-point spread- is that 3 points inclusive, then? Are we sure there's no place where a 'perfect storm' score falls into the a chasm between the two bets and pays him nothing?

I guess the player has a chance to win $150,000 if they place both sides of the same bet and the 49ers win by 1,2 or 3 points or lose by 1 or 2... they win the parlay bet and the full $100,000- plus they win their new $50,000 Vegas bet since the Eagles didn't lose by more than 3, for a take of $150,000. If the Eagles win by 3 or more, his parlay is gone, but he wins $100,000 on his $50,000 bet and takes home $50,000. So yeah- if he's able, he's got a guaranteed $50K in his pocket already- and can risk a small portion of that as fees on a short-term loan.

The really cool thing is the player hopefully has read this and similar articles when they came out a couple of days ago, and has hopefully started making phone calls- showing this article as an example- to find someone, anyone, who can front the bet on Eagles at -3.5.

It's confusing, and if it were me I'd want to be triple-checking the math over and over, but given that this story was in the paper surely the lucky bettor can get a loan- even a loan shark would realize that it's an easy way to make a guaranteed few thousand if you offer him the betting money for one week, knowing that he can't actually lose. The real luck is that the 4-team bye meant the delay of the 16th game for a week, in which time he gets the amazing opportunity to arbitrage the movement of the betting line itself. That's stupendously cool, now that I think of it...

posted by hincandenza at 03:29 PM on October 09

I would hope that the bettor is aware of the situation, and puts the hedge bet on.

While I've never been even remotely close to this situation, I have had a few cases where I've won the first 5 or 6 of a parlay card, and found myself in this position. I always placed the bet for a couple hundred, and in every case that favorite covered, so I only won the second bet. I hope he wins the parlay!

posted by dviking at 05:49 PM on October 09

So what happens on a push? Does this guy lose with 14 correct picks and a push? If so, that sucks, although I would guess there would be a push or two each week if they do full-point spreads.

posted by bender at 11:43 PM on October 10

I hope he hedged.

If the last game was a push, he gets the winning result of a 14-team parlay. The 15th game is just not counted.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 11:50 PM on October 10

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