Do you think that with the lack of a prominent frontrunning starter in the NL this year Trevor has a chance to get the Cy? Zero chance. It's Webb, Carpenter or possibly some other starter (Zambrano? Arroyo?). I just don't see Hoffman's numbers standing out and deserving of the Cy Young. You'd have to put up some mind-boggling numbers to win the Cy Young as a reliever (like Gagne in 2003, or Eckersley in 1990). Yes, but Hoffman has 11 seasons with 30+ saves, and 8 with 40+ saves - both are MLB records. Both of these a product of the artificial nature of the "save". Sutter and Gossage played in a time when the bullpen wasn't so strict with the hierarchal setup of starter, middle man, setup, closer. Hence their ability to lead their leagues in saves but not have that many in comparison to Hoffman. Look at the IP/appearance numbers. On average, Gossage/Sutter would appear earlier in the game and pitch longer. Sometimes it was when there was a save situation, sometimes not (like a tie game, or trailing in a close game). This year, Hoffman isn't even averaging an inning an appearance (60IP in 62 games). He's there strictly to harvest "saves", and that's it. Like I said before, saves and wins are WAY overrated in terms of rating pitchers. Example: Randy Johnson's 20-win season in 1997. Everyone seems to forget that his 20th win was probably the most manufactured "win" of the past 20 years. If you don't click the link, I'll explain it: Johnson came in as a reliever in the 5th inning, after the starter (Omar Olivares) left with a 7-2 lead. Johnson pitched 2 innings, and then left the game leading 9-2. Three more relievers came in, and they pitched only one inning each to close out the game. Johnson got the win because the scoring rules state that if the starter does not go 5IP, then the win will go to the pitcher who pitched the best for the winning team (and did not get a save in the game, if available). Since Johnson pitched 2 innings and the other relievers only pitched 1, he was awarded his 20th win. Blech. It's the same as a pitcher who comes in to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th inning with his team leading 14-2. He will get credit for a save.
The definition of a save. Please note 3(c).
If I had to bet I'd put my money on Carpenter at this point, but I can't say I'd be surprised if a reliever gets the nod. And I mean Wagner, not Hoffman. I still think Hoffman had a (slim) chance before that back-to-back-to-back-to-back game against the dodgers. Both of these a product of the artificial nature of the "save". Sutter and Gossage played in a time when the bullpen wasn't so strict with the hierarchal setup of starter, middle man, setup, closer. To go back to the HOF discussion - I'm not disputing your assertion that they played in different times where roles weren't as defined as they are nowadays. What I am saying, however, is that Hoffman and Rivera can only pitch in those innings that their managers put them in. The game has changed (evolved?) to the point where guys do have the specific roles that you mentioned. If we're going to use our pitchers in these situations, we might as well acknowledge their greatness at fulfilling those roles.
Hoffman has done nothing but perform at a high level in the situations that his manager has elected to put him in. I think, sometimes it is folly to put the onus on relievers to prove themselves when the level of control they have over how they're used is minimal. I also think that it is much harder to compare relievers of different eras than it is to do the same concerning starters and fielders. The game has evolved/changed significantly in this respect. And if Lee Smith gets in I'll eat my hat. He's a longevity guy - not too many outstanding numbers there. And grum is right - total saves should not be the highest arbitor in the discussion. Hoffman's career WHIP, OBA, and ERA+ are all worthy indicators of his HoF worthyness.
posted this in hopes that grum would offer his usual concise and statistically accurate point of view grumbait!
grumbait! Ha! I have no stats to back up my opinion of his opinions, however.
If we're going to use our pitchers in these situations, we might as well acknowledge their greatness at fulfilling those roles. But if they've become such a limited use player, what separates them from the great pinch-hitters of yesteryear? Some of them were never given adequate playing time in the field, but could be called upon to pinch-hit with great skill. Should they be rewarded with a HOF berth because of their limited use? That's what closers have become: the "pinch-hitters" of the pitching corps. Hoffman is going to probably average less than an inning an appearance. He will pitch about 4.25% of his team's innings this year.
grumbait! Grum-BATE (noun): When you really want to know something about baseball, but don't want to look it up yourself. Usually best used when framed as a likely inaccurate declarative statement. (Or by borrowing heavily from Joe Morgan.)
