September 02, 2019

Enter SportsFilter's NFL Pick 'Em Contest: The NFL season starts Thursday, which means the return of the SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em. The rules remain the same: Choose the winners of each game and the margin of victory. Make any game a stone cold lead pipe lock to double your points in victory or lose points in defeat. The champion wins an official NFL game ball (details inside).

How This Works

SportsFilter is running a season-long NFL Pick 'Em contest and awarding a prize to the season's winner: an official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

To play, pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 3 more points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 2 more points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game.

Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Miami by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Miami by 208 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Miami by 105 points (winner only)
Miami by 1510 points (winner + nailed spread)
Miami by 50 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose any game as a stone cold lead pipe lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team doesn't win, you lose 10 points (even if you get the spread). You can make as many picks a lock as you like or pick no locks at all.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Hall of Champions

2016-17: Ufez Jones
2017-18: Tron7
2018-19: Tron7

This Week's Games

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday)
L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday)
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday)
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday)
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday)
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday)
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday)
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday)
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday)
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday)

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade to football at 08:09 AM - 22 comments

Chicago by 3
L.A. Rams by 7 (lock)
Philadelphia by 10 (lock)
Buffalo by 3
Atlanta by 3
Baltimore by 3
Kansas City by 6 (lock)
Cleveland by 7 (lock)
L.A. Chargers by 7 (lock)
Seattle by 13 (lock)
San Francisco by 3
Dallas by 4
Arizona by 3
New England by 3
New Orleans by 7 (lock)
Oakland by 3

I like the Bills, Falcons and 49ers as upsets, though I'm surprised San Fran is a 2.5-point underdog visiting Tampa Bay. The consensus on Yahoo's contest is 56% 49ers.

Homerism aside, the game I most want to see is Cleveland's opener. They seem like the real deal.

I want to believe the Jags D is up to the challenge of KC, but the 30-14 result last season and the expected shakiness of a new offense and quarterback deflate my excessive optimism. At least I don't have to pin my hopes on Bortles.

posted by rcade at 10:30 AM on September 02

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday) Green Bay by 7

L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday) Rams by 14 Lock
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday) Philly by 7
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday) Buffalo by 3
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday) Atlanta by 7
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday) Baltimore by 7
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday) KC by 14
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday) Cleveland by 7
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)Indy by 9
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday) Seattle by 10
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday) Tampa by 7
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday) Dallas by 9
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday) Arizona by 10
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)New England by 14 Lock
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday) New Orleans by 7
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday) Denver by 10

posted by Boaz at 11:13 AM on September 02

THURSDAY
Chicago by 5

SUNDAY
L.A. Rams by 5
Philadelphia by 10
N.Y. Jets by 6
Minnesota by 7
Baltimore by 7
Kansas City by 14
Cleveland by 7
L.A. Chargers by 8
Seattle by 12
Tampa Bay by 4
Dallas by 5
Detroit by 4
New England by 5

MONDAY
New Orleans by 8
Oakland by 4

posted by NoMich at 03:49 PM on September 02

Green Bay by 3

L.A.Rams by 12

Philadelphia by 21 (LOCK)

N.Y.Jets by 3

Minnesota by 10 (LOCK)

Baltimore by 14 (LOCK)

Kansas City by 13 (LOCK)

Cleveland by 13 (LOCK)

L.A.Chargers by 14 (LOCK)

Seattle by 17 (LOCK)

San Francisco by 3

N.Y.Giants by 3

Detroit by 3 Just because I have to.

New England by 3

New Orleans by 24 (LOCK)

Oakland by 3

Live by the lock or die by the lock.

posted by ic23b at 05:04 PM on September 02

Green Bay by 9
L.A. Rams by 17
Philadelphia by 3
Buffalo by 3
Atlanta by 7
Baltimore by 12
Kansas City by 17
Cleveland by 6
L.A. Chargers by 19
Seattle by 4
San Francisco by 3
Dallas by 10
Detroit by 6
New England by 9
Houston by 3
Oakland by 3

posted by grum@work at 05:57 PM on September 02

Chicago by 9

L.A. Rams by 6

Philadelphia by 5

N.Y. Jets by 7

Minnesota by 3

Baltimore by 6

Kansas City by 9

Cleveland by 6

L.A. Chargers by 5 LOCK

Seattle by 8

San Francisco by 5

Dallas by 7 LOCK

Detroit by 4

New England by 3 LOCK

New Orleans by 7

Oakland by 6

posted by cixelsyd at 10:13 AM on September 03

Chicago by 3
L.A. Rams by 5
Philadelphia by 6
N.Y. Jets by 10
Atlanta by 3
Baltimore by 3
Kansas City by 6
Cleveland by 10
L.A. Chargers by 3
Seattle by 7 *lock*
San Francisco by 5
Dallas by 3
Detroit by 3
Pittsburgh by 6
Houston by 7
Oakland by 3

posted by cl at 08:39 PM on September 03

Chicago by 6
L.A. Rams by 4
Philadelphia by 11
N.Y. Jets by 2
Minnesota by 2
Baltimore by 8 (LOCK)
Kansas City by 6
Cleveland by 4
L.A. Chargers by 4
Seattle by 4
Tampa Bay by 1
Dallas by 8 (LOCK)
Detroit by 2
New England by 3
Houston by 2
Oakland by 5

posted by wfrazerjr at 10:18 AM on September 04

Chicago by 10

Carolina by 3

Philadelphia by 14 LOCK

Buffalo by 7

Minnesota by 5

Miami by 3

Jacksonville by 3

Cleveland by 9

L.A. Chargers by 14

Seattle by 11 LOCK

San Francisco by 3

Dallas by 6

Arizona by 3

Pittsburgh by 3

New Orleans by 7

Oakland by 6

posted by rumple at 11:50 AM on September 04

**Repeating the phrase "this is my year this is my year this is my year"

Chicago by 6

L.A. Rams by 10

Philadelphia by 8

N.Y. Jets by 3

Minnesota by 5

Baltimore by 17 LOCK

Kansas City by 13 LOCK

Cleveland by 4

L.A. Chargers by 13 LOCK

Seattle by 17 LOCK

San Francisco by 4

Dallas by 6

Detroit by 7

Pittsburgh by 4

New Orleans by 3

Oakland by 6

posted by tahoemoj at 02:07 PM on September 04

Chicago by 3
L.A. Rams by 4
Philadelphia by 2
N.Y. Jets by 2
LOCK Minnesota by 7 LOCK
Miami by 4
LOCK Kansas City by 10 LOCK
Tennessee by 3
LOCK L.A. Chargers by 14 LOCK
LOCK Seattle by 10 LOCK
Tampa Bay by 4
N.Y. Giants by 5
LOCK Arizona by 8 LOCK
New England by 7
LOCK New Orleans by 13 LOCK
Oakland by 3

posted by bender at 04:35 PM on September 04

Green Bay at Chicago Bears by 4
L.A. Rams at Carolina Rams by 7
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles by 10 LOCK
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets Jets by 7
Atlanta at Minnesota Vikings by 10
Baltimore at Miami Ravens by 6
Kansas City at Jacksonville Chiefs by 10
Tennessee at Cleveland Browns by 10 LOCK
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers Chargers by 14 LOCK
Cincinnati at Seattle Seahawks by 10 LOCK
San Francisco at Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
N.Y. Giants at Dallas Cowgirls by 7
Detroit at Arizona Cardinals by 3
Pittsburgh at New England Pats by 7
Houston at New Orleans Saints by 10 LOCK
Denver at Oakland Raiders by 3

posted by truthhurts at 06:38 PM on September 04

If you know any longtimers who aren't in the contest yet, please email them this link. The email I sent announcing this post got caught in my spambox and might have been caught there for others as well.

posted by rcade at 06:44 PM on September 04

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.

Oh the glorious history Chicago by 6
For the runner up position in the AFC East New York (AFC) by 7
Shootout in Jax Kansas City by 13 LOCK
Falcons are supposed to head south, not north, at this time of the year. Minnesota by 9
Nothing could be finer, just don't bet on Carolina Los Angeles (NFC) by 14 LOCK
Fish gotta swim, but birds gonna fly Baltimore by 16 LOCK
Old school NFC East war Philadelphia by 3
The hype is over, time to show what you have Cleveland by 7
Sorry, Bengals, but here we go again Seattle by 9 LOCK
It's all yours, Jacoby, good (no more) Luck San Diego Los Angeles (AFC) by 6
Rapacious sea rovers against gold seeking opportunists Tampa Bay by 7
Ezekiel is back, how are his wheels? Dallas by 16 LOCK
Ah the enthusiasm of youth for the Cardinals Arizona by 6
...and the steady hand of experience for the Patriots New England by 6
It might not be a Breese, but New Orleans by 10
Closing out the week with an old time AFL West duel Oakland by 9

posted by Howard_T at 06:46 PM on September 04

Chicago by 6 LOCK

Rams by 4

Philadelphia by 10 LOCK

Jets by 3

Minnesota by 2

Baltimore by 8 LOCK

Jacksonville by 3

Tennessee by 1

Chargers by 6

Seattle by 9 LOCK

San Francisco by 5

Dallas by 3 LOCK

Detroit by 7

New England by 4

New Orleans by 7 LOCK

Oakland by 3

posted by jagsnumberone at 11:20 PM on September 04

I just found the email in the spam file ...

Chicago by 5

L.A. Rams by 10 (Lock)

Philadelphia by 13 (Drop Dead, Lead Pipe Lock)

J-E-T-S by 7 (Lock)

Minnesota by 3

Baltimore by 12 (Lock)

Jacksonville by 8

Cleveland by 10

Chargers by 4

Seattle by 11

Tampa Bay by 9

Cowgirls by 10 (Lock)

Arizona by 3

New England by 14 (Lock)

New Orleans by 13 (Lock)

Oakland by 5

posted by jjzucal at 09:51 AM on September 05

Green Bay by 3
L.A. Rams by 3
Philadelphia by 11 - LOCK
N.Y. Jets by 3
Minnesota by 6
Baltimore by 17 - LOCK
Jacksonville by 6
Cleveland by 3
L.A. Chargers by 6
Seattle by 7
Tampa Bay by 3
Dallas by 14 - LOCK
Arizona by 6
New England by 6
New Orleans by 8
Denver by 4

posted by tron7 at 03:27 PM on September 05

Bears by 8

posted by Ufez Jones at 06:27 PM on September 05

Green Bay by 11

posted by tommytrump at 07:17 PM on September 05

L.A. Rams by 5

Philadelphia by 11

Buffalo by 4

Atlanta by 3

Baltimore by 5

Kansas City by 14

Cleveland by 7

L.A. Chargers by 7

Seattle by 7

San Francisco by 7

Dallas by 6

Detroit by 10

Pittsburgh by 2

New Orleans by 7

Oakland by 1

posted by tommytrump at 08:49 PM on September 07

Bears by 8 (WRONG!)
(fuck the) Rams by 7
Eagles by 17 (LOCK)
Jets by 6
Vikings by 4
Ravens by 9 (LOCK)
Chiefs by 14 (LOCK)
Browns by 8 (LOCK)
Chargers by 8
Seahawks by 7
49ers by 3
Cowboys by 6
Lions by 4
Patriots by 6
Saints by 7
Broncos by 6

posted by Ufez Jones at 11:18 AM on September 08

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