January 15, 2011

NFL Pick 'em, Divisional Round: Wildcard and Confidence pool results are in; make your second week picks inside.

posted by hincandenza to fantasy at 02:09 PM - 8 comments

Looks like apoch just didn't have time to run the pick 'em so I'll go ahead and spin this up last minute. I'm posting this now to make it available, and will go back and compute the wild card week standings afterwards and post here.

Due to the late start, picks are due anytime this weekend, but your picks for any game obviously only count if they come in before kick-off.

I'm altering the pick 'em scoring a little for this week, to add a little Vegas pizazz: I've included the Vegas spread (defined by the favorites) and over/under for each game, as well as the point difference in the final score.

Baltimore Ravens @Pittsburgh SteelersSat 4:30pm EST, CBSPittsburgh -337.5
Green Bay Packers @Atlanta FalconsSat 8:00pm EST, FOXAtlanta -1.543.5
Seattle Seahawks @Chicago BearsSun 1:00pm EST, FOXChicago -1042.5
New York Jets @New England PatriotsSun 4:30pm EST, FOXNew England -8.544.5

For each game there is a maximum of 4 points possible. You pick:

  • The "winning" team according to the spread (1)
  • The over/under (1)
  • The point differential either way (2).

Lastly, the bonus pick this week is a two-pointer: Which team will have the greatest difference between their passing yards and rushing yards, and how much will that be (calculated via margin of error).

So an example pick line for one game might look like this:

Steelers, under, 7

This means you think the Steelers will outright win by more than 3 points (the spread), that the combined score will be less than 37.5, and that ultimately the Steelers- or the Ravens- will win by exactly one touchdown.

Now, if after the game the Ravens have won 21-14, then you'd still get 3 points: one for getting the "under", and two for the point differential being exactly 7. If however it's a scoring free-for-all with the Ravens winning by 2 points in a 38-36 contest, you get... zero. No team pick, no over/under, no differential even within the margin of error.

posted by hincandenza at 03:03 PM on January 15

More Explanation:

If you are still a little unclear on how spreads and over/unders work, here's more explanation.

Spread: First, you pick the team you think will win according to the spread line above. For example NE is listed as a -8.5 favorites, and the Bears are listed as -10 favorites. What this means if if you pick the Jets and the Seahawks to win, and they both lose their respective games but the Jets lose by 8 or less and the Seahawks lose by 10 or less they still "win" because NE is supposed to win by at least 9 and the Bears by 11. Otherwise, if the Patriots win by 9 and the Bears win by 11 or more, those teams "win" according to the spread.

Over/Under: Second, the over/under is very straightforward: will the combined score be over or under the O/U for the game? If you think it'll be a gritty, tough-nosed defensive game, you might pick the under. If you think the QBs will each be rainbowing beautiful touchdown passes all game long, you might pick the over.

Differential: Lastly, the point differential is the standard point differential of past SpoFi pick 'ems, calculated by margin of error. If your prediction of the final point difference- either way- is within the margin of error, you get a point. If you nail the spread exactly, it's worth a second point. Margin of Error is basically 30% wiggle room either way, so if the final score difference is 10 then the MoE is 7 - 13 to get that first point, and exactly 10 to get the second point.

Bonus: For the bonus, note the bonus pick doesn't care which way the yards go, so the winning pick this weekend might be "Seattle, 200"- which means if Seattle has the greatest difference with 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards or 300 rushing/100 passing, you get the full two points. In addition, you can miss the team but get the differential correct (within margin of error) and still get one point. If anyone gets this within 10 yards, I reserve the right to award a second point just for sheer awesomeness. :)

posted by hincandenza at 03:04 PM on January 15

Here are my picks to get the ball rolling- hope the above wasn't too wordy or confusing!

Ravens, over, 7
Falcons, over, 7
Seahawks, under, 3
Patriots, over, 14

Seahawks, 200 yards :)

Also, it's 12:15pm here in Seattle, so I'm going to shower and go get brunch; if you don't mind, I'll compute last week's scores from apoch's pick 'em and post here later.

posted by hincandenza at 03:10 PM on January 15

Steelers, over, 4
Packers, over, 7
Bears, under, 10
Patriots, under, 10
Packers, 180 yds

Thanks, Hal

posted by tron7 at 03:37 PM on January 15

Ravens; Under; 3
Packers; Over; 4

Seahawks; Over; 2
Jets; Over; 3

Thanks Hal. You da man. I was going to cover for apoch, but I'm alone with the baby today, so free time is something I don't have right now.

posted by NoMich at 04:01 PM on January 15

Pittsburgh, over, 17

Atlanta, over, 13

New England, over, 21

Seattle, over, 3

Baltimore, 174 yards.

Thank you, Hal.

posted by tommytrump at 04:22 PM on January 15

Oh crap, the bonus: Packers 150 yards.

posted by NoMich at 04:31 PM on January 15

Here are the results from week 1 based on my spreadsheet computations. Please check my math for your own picks, in case I put in bad data or bad formulas. For each pick you earned one point for picking the team, one point for getting the point difference exactly, and one point for getting the point difference within the spread if you had the right winning team.

Maximum of 15 points possible (there are 18 possible points this week), with our high scores being... 4. Either I fucked up some spreadsheet formulas, or we can put to bed our dreams of a SpoFi High Rollers Vegas Field Trip.

Outcomes (Winning Team, Difference, Margin of Error spread):

  • NYJ by 1 (1 to 1)
  • BAL by 23 (16 to 30)
  • SEA by 5 (4 to 7)
  • GB by 5 (4 to 7)
  • Baltimore with 10 yds/penalty

Wildcard Weekend Results:

Ufez Jones4
Ying Yang Mafia1

and just to reiterate, the confidence pool standings are below again (no new picks needed, the Confidence Pool runs itself).

SpofiteScoreRetired Points
owlhouse25 26

posted by hincandenza at 04:34 PM on January 15

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