If the NCAA's interests are in mind, these players seem better off just jumping to the NBA...especially when you look at a player like Carmelo Anthony. Jim Boeheim wasn't kidding when he joked that he'd like to see Carmelo in another Final Four. Anthony's abandoning the Syracuse could really hurt that program (but they'll probably get a couple great recruits to offset it). It's the one and done's that hurt the NCAA not the Amare Stoudamire's of the world. Would he have looked great in a Memphis jersey and helped that team no doubt, but the NCAA isn't worse off...they can't know what might have been. But all those freshmen and sophomores leaving that have a huge impact....at least on the fans of College Basketball
Jack - I intentionally left Kobe out of the equation because he is a freak, and he did make his team better right away. Naturally there are going to be Kobes, Lebron's, Garnetts etc. who clearly made the right decision. Who can say Kemp made the wrong decision? Or Jermaine O' Neal? No...I'm talking about the B-listers. The high schoolers that jack up 30 and 15 every day against other high schoolers and then get it into their head that they are ready for the big time. While I agree you will find foreigners and high schoolers who did well and plenty who do poorly, you can say the same lottery pics, Duke Alumni, white ballplayers, players from the Pac-10, skinny guys, guys built like trucks, etc. You just never know how they will develop. Lifted from this page - peep these high schoolers that WERE drafted since 1996: 1996 Taj McDavid (never played, had eligibility restored by the NBA) 1996 Jermaine O'Neal (all-star) 1997 Tracy McGrady (all-world) 1998 Al Harrington (12 points, 6 boards a game) 1998 Rahsard Lewis (all-star) 1998 Ellis Richardson (served 8 months after being convicted on robbery charges) 1998 Korleone Young (last seen playing in the CBA) 1999 Jonathan Bender (6 points a game) 1999 Leon Smith (attempted suicide, out of basketball, never played a game) 2000 Darius Miles 2001 Kwame Brown (7 points a game) 2001 Tyson Chandler (10 pts a game) 2001 Eddy Curry (10 pts a game) 2001 DeSagana Diop (huh?) 2001 Tony Key (huh?) 2001 Ousmane Cisse (huh?) 2002 Amare Stoudemire (great pick) Amare, Lewis, O' Neal, McGrady have all helped to vastly improve their teams...arguably as well as or better than any other pick might (or pickup in the case of O'Neal with the Pacers) would have. Here are foreign-born players taken in the first round of the same span: 1996 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas 1997 - Pedrag Stojakovic, Vitaly Potapenko 1998 - Dirk Nowitzki, Rasoslav Nesterovic, Mirsad Turkcan, Vladimir Stepania 1999 - Wang Zhi Zhi, Emanuel Ginobili, Andrei Kirilenko, 2000 - Olumide Oyedeji, Iakovos Tsakalidis, Hidayet Turkoglu 2001 - Pau Gasol, Vladimir Radmanovic, Tony Parker 2002 - Yao Ming (first pick), Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Nene Hilario, Bostjan Nachbar, Jiri Welsch Yes - I left out some of the crummiest guys...but only for brevity sake. The high schooler list is comprehensive. Before that, there was Moses Malone, Bill Willoughby, Toni Kukoc, Vlade Divac, and (He's not Your Vydas, He's not My Vydas, He's...) Arvydas Sabonis. The draft is a crapshoot. But if you had a way to crunch the numbers (NBA Sabermetrics? How about it Grummie?) then I would wager you would find foreign born players have a bigger impact on team success than high school draftees (even two, three, five years out). Foreign players are getting a few extra years of development not only in game but in body and mind, they are playing against good competition, they are learning the fundamentals of the game (the irony here is that Europe is "behind" the US in terms of basketball development...I guess it depends on your definition of a good basketball player), and they are hungry. Here's a good article on the topic I found while searching...
In the "before that" file, don't forget Drazen Petrovic, who was starting to get really busy in the NBA before he died in a car crash... To start, Richardson, Key and McDavid didn't get drafted. More importantly, no one thought they had any chance of being drafted. As for the second-round high school guys, I'm not sure they're terribly indicative, either. Not to spin, but I'd look at the guys drafted in the first round, those are the guys you build around or plug holes. Since 1995, the NBA has taken 23 players from the foreign system and 14 with high school ball as their highest level of play. Take away the four guys who've decided not to play here, and the impact is about the same. U.S.: Three possible HOFers, one star, one rising star, one solid pro, two journeyman, two busts and the jury's out on the other four. (Judgement reserved on players since '01 who haven't made an impact. My money is on Diop being a bust.) Foreign: One possible HOFer, one star, two rising stars, three solid pros, two busts, three journeymen and the jury's out on the other seven. Three Hall of Famers out of 14 for the high schoolers as compared to one out of 19 for club alumni. So why should Kobe be left out of the equation? And if you take away Dallas and Sacramento, there's not much of a profound impact in terms of wins and losses. Few of the first-rounds players have looked like men among men in their rookie year in the NBA, because the league isn't usually drafting guys like that over the age of 20. Kobe didn't help the Lakers a bunch in his rookie year. Nor did Peja, T-Mac, KG or Dirk. Amare, Gasol, Parker and Ming are probably the only ones to jump off of the plane and work over the older players. So I'd be glad to wager, again, that it's a wash. And another thing to consider is that in nine months when the guys aren't in high school competition, they're playing regularly against guys from Division I or better. For instance, the NBA did fine the Cavs $150,000 for basically letting James workout with a half-dozen of that team's regulars.
Vito: Highschooler DeShawn Stevenson was also taken in the first round of the 2000 draft by the Jazz. So what's the consensus here? Should I return my OJ Mayo jersey (which is going to be tough - they threw in a Gale Sayers and a Wes Unseld, on account of my good grades) for the jersey of some 15 year old Serbian kid playing in Spain? Who's rookie card should I buy?
And I have DeShawn slotted as a bust unless he pulls a Chris Mullin and suddenly becomes an All-Star... Kloeprich, you may not remember the name, but Schea Cotton was a guy who was supposed to be "can't miss" at Mater Dei almost 10 years ago. There were about 6 or 7 seniors headed to Division I schools -- teams that mean something -- on the court between Mater Dei and Crenshaw in the state's semifinal and Cotton was easily the best player on the court as a freshman. I went to watch him as a sophomore and he ended up with a profile in SI. The guy was last seen in one of those NBDL "buster" leagues. Burn your O.J. Mayo jersey, unless you can find a way to get it wrapped around cylindrical cardboard in your restroom. Hold off buying any others. www.sacbee.com
jack: I remember Schea Cotton when he was at Long Beach CC. I think he was at Mater Dei around '96-'97 - how time flies. He actually came out of Alabama early for that same 2000 draft but wasn't taken. Suprise. And you're dead on with Stevenson. Another kid who should of and could of gone to school (he signed with Kansas). I doubt the Jazz will give him much more time to 'develop'.
Cotton played at Mater Dei from '93-95 -- only remember that because those were my freshman and sophomore years in college -- then went to two or three other schools for his final two years. The amazing thing about back then, for me at least, is that Baron Davis was pretty much overshadowed in the LA area by Cotton, Chris Burgess and the Collins twins. Granted, Davis wasn't really overshadowed by anyone else in the country, but it's funny that he's the only guy out of those "stars" to become an actual star. Okay, maybe not. The million-dollar question on Stevenson is whether he would have predicted on the SAT or ACT. I don't know. But as much time I've spent rapping the Euro proponents, he would have been better off overseas than KU. I tend to think the college coaches are in it for themselves, so players oftentimes don't learn as much as perhaps they should.
