I'm not in this league, but I thought I'd drop by anyway. I can't believe Australia has a chance to actually win this thing - at the beginning I thought they wouldn't even get a single win. But the money should still be on the ABs. Although being World Cup year, the NZ press and public are going through psychological hell - "Surely we can't stuff it up again? Peaking at the wrong time? Oh God, the Wallabies have already won it TWICE!" And the team is far from settled, Fence. Seven changes for the Springbok game, they have real problems at outside centre and people are starting to turn on Dan Carter. Not the preparation they were really looking for.
Not totally settled, but they weren't trying out unknowns like SA and the Aussies in their Northern Hemisphere tours. I'd quite like NZ to lose, they've been guilty of a lot of moaning lately, but at the same time, that'd result in a bit of a backlash as the RWC, so maybe I'm hoping they win the Tri and lose in the WC. You can never write off the ABs though, and they do play some great rugby, so it is still hard to see anyone else winning.
I'd still bet on them for the Tri-Nations. But I think their odds are lengthening for the RWC, as you say. Anyway, I figured you'd want to see them lose after the O'Driscoll thing in the first Lions Test. I watched it in a bar in Samoa, and even the most gung-ho Samoan were ashamed of what Tana Umaga and Kevin Mealamu did. Both are Samoan, by the way.
Ah, it isn't that. Well maybe a little, but I always like seeing the favourites lose, especially when they are as grumpy as NZ seem to be this season.
