- 04:00 AM
- 11/22/09
Gut check 1 (admittedly, we'll never know if punting would have won the game) Math geeks and Bill Belichick 0
and
But, since Belichick failed this time, the numbers are now surely in his favor the next time, I mean, that'd be logical wouldn't it?
No, it wouldn't be. Individual results cannot be predicted by probability. People who think this way end up playing slot machines until they lose their house.
Math geeks weren't proven wrong by what happened; probability has to do with aggregates, not individual results or guaranteed predictions. If the play was run 1000 times, it's likely work out around 700/1000. Which 700 times? We have no idea.
posted by dfleming at 01:54 PM on November 21
It's painful to see him reject logic so brazenly.
Football is a folksy game, and it's no wonder that so many within it have a tough time adjusting to the number of math geeks trumping traditional assumptions.
posted by dfleming at 09:54 AM on November 21
If what Henry did was cheating, then pretty much every player in team sports cheats.
Agreed. I mean, if people were completely honest, we'd need a referee only once in a blue moon.
posted by dfleming at 02:11 PM on November 20
I guarantee you if Doug Flutie was still playing, you'd see the same play this week.
posted by dfleming at 11:30 AM on November 20
Wainright gets the largest number of first place votes but still loses; weird stuff, this 5-3-1 system. Congrats to Tim, he is a stud starter for years to come.
posted by dfleming at 01:11 AM on November 20
Fudge Platini with the rough end of a baguette.
New favorite phrase. Thanks!
posted by dfleming at 07:49 AM on November 19
By what method do you determine who's being more aggressive?
Check for froth around the mouth.
The method is a little flawed; they used only first half fouls to eliminate the end of game fouls which occur when a team is leading late. That notwithstanding, it's a little problematic to leave half a game's worth of data out.
posted by dfleming at 06:57 PM on November 18
The Jim Tracy award was a good one; who would've thought the Rockies would be such a stud team for half the season?
posted by dfleming at 04:14 PM on November 18
Interesting study on refereeing in basketball; if you're the team with fewer fouls, away from home and leading, watch the foul calls pile up.
posted by dfleming at 03:09 PM on November 18
Two votes to Felix Hernandez and one to Justin Verlander.
posted by dfleming at 03:05 PM on November 18
I would've been more than happy to do that but I would much rather just answer the question that was given to me honestly.
Here's a timeline:
Mkultra said that Greinke deserved the award, which is in line with the definition of the word deserve. He has had a season of merit.
You questioned whether or not he deserved it, based on the fact that other people may deserve it as well. That is when your personal definition comes into play and is wrong for the first time; multiple people may be deserving of the award, according to the definition.
Justgary, I'm assuming out of some state of bewilderment, inquires as to what it means to you. You respond with something that's contrary to the definition of the word again.
You were wrong before you formally declared it. There were multiple deserving people of the award and Greinke, statistically, is the most deserving, hence him being robbed if he didn't get it. Others are less deserving, but still deserving to some extent.
Fuck semantics tire me.
posted by dfleming at 02:23 PM on November 18
That no one but Grienke was in contention of winning the award.
I'm happy you have a personal definition of the word but for everyone's sake, consult a dictionary.
posted by dfleming at 01:55 PM on November 18
I'll tell them, and I'll expect a free pass.
If by free pass, you mean huge fine, then sure.
posted by dfleming at 12:08 PM on November 17
I've been on this site a couple of times pushing how Brady Quinn needs to get some time to start. I don't know if it was the 13/31 for 99 yards and two picks or the awful chop block that put Terrell Suggs out but he did not look like an NFL caliber quarerback last night.
I am cooking some delicious crow if anyone would like to come over for dinner.
posted by dfleming at 11:58 AM on November 17
The Bengals have reportedly signed Larry Johnson.
posted by dfleming at 01:59 PM on November 16
If you're going to go for it on 4th-and-2, how about running a pattern that's deeper than 2-1/2 yards?
I thought the same thing. Judging by the way things were lined up, it looked like Randy Moss was going to be 1 on 1 with a rookie corner. Take him downfield.
posted by dfleming at 01:18 PM on November 16
I'm thinking that Crennel & Weis had a lot more to do with the Pats success than they get credit for (even though the two of them have been disappointing as head coaches).
I wholeheartedly agree. They may not have been able to put it together on their own but it looks like the Patriots were a braintrust, not a mastermind and his minions.
posted by dfleming at 11:50 AM on November 16
Belichick's call was almost certainly the correct one. 70% of the time, teams will convert 4th and 2. If they convert, they win. Puntthe ball back to the Colts, and you have a smaller chance of winning.
The Colts, to that point, had scored touchdowns on 4/14 drives, or 28.6% of the times they held the ball. Only one drive was less than two minutes in length. I understand that letting Peyton have the ball back is a scary thing, but statistically, they were more likely to stop him than not from 70 yards out.
posted by dfleming at 10:44 AM on November 16
I'm still not sure I buy it, because 70 yards is a lot hard than 30, but to suggest Belichick's decision is indefensible is silly.
I agree. I reacted really badly to it last night but I realized that, in certain situations, that might be the best move.
I don't think last night was that situation.
As much as Peyton had shredded the Patriots in the fourth quarter, they picked him off twice, once in the fourth quarter which seemed to seal their fate. The Colts scored against the prevent defense, something that seems to happen so often nowadays that the prevent defense ought to go the way of the dodo bird. It was far from a certainty that he could march the field and score at will.
Plus, you gotta think that a guy like Manning is going to manage the clock down the stretch and not just quick strike and let Brady get the ball back. He's been in the league way too long for that. He did exactly what I thought he would; ran short plays, bought time, scored with almost zero time left.
If I was a defensive player waking up today, I'd be feeling a whole lot of resentment towards my coach. They, for the better part of three quarters, had the Colt offense under control. If Maroney doesn't fumble on the one yard line, if Brady doesn't get picked off in end zone, the game is over. Why, exactly, was the confidence in the offense, who had blown several chances to put the game away earlier and failed?
posted by dfleming at 10:10 AM on November 16
Going for 4th and 2 on your own 28 yard line with two minutes left and a six point lead may be the single stupidest call I've ever witnessed. Bill Bellichek should be taken out behind a shed and shot.
posted by dfleming at 11:41 PM on November 15
LeBron James is surrounded by people in the NBA who saw Russell and Dr. J play, played with or against them, and coached them. If he is attentive and mindful of the history of the game, he'd have ample opportunity to develop respect for them.
Is there any indication that he doesn't have any respect for them? Obviously, his idol is Jordan, however having Jordan on a pedestal as the greatest player of all time doesn't mean he doesn't have any respect for the others. I mean, he even says in the article that Dr. J was his second favorite player growing up and he wears his number at the Olympics, just like he did when he was a kid.
He's got a sense of what players meant something in NBA history and he's made a value judgment that the globalization, number recognition and explosion of basketball around the world is a result of Air Jordan. Whether or not Jordan's the best ever is contestable, however it doesn't mean that he's not mindful of those who came before.
posted by dfleming at 09:54 AM on November 15
Instead of defending your slack-jawed, dull-minded, self-centered, low-attention-span-having youngsters, maybe you should be trying to get some sense into them.
You know, I've studied a lot of great writers and thinkers, and though I can understand what they wrote about, I can't pretend to understand what the work meant at the time it was written. I'm thrilled that you seem to think you've got a handle on how to replace the experience of being there with, uh, "sense", but I think that's naivete on your part rather than actually having done it.
posted by dfleming at 06:19 PM on November 14
I think it's slightly unfair for older sports fans to criticize someone in their twenties for not having enough respect for someone they didn't have the ability to watch play. Sure, I hear stories about how amazing Babe Ruth was, but when I was a kid I wanted to be like the players I'd actually seen, not people who were essentially mythical.
LeBron knows who Bill Russell and Dr. J were, but can he really understand how dominant they were in their time? It seems like old-time sour grapes to hold it against him that he can't appreciate something it is impossible for him to have experienced.
posted by dfleming at 05:32 PM on November 14
I thought for years that Tinsley got a bit of a raw deal in Indiana; he was never really trusted with the point guard job, despite performing fairly well. That said, he spent a year and a half essentially in exile, which isn't good for your game, and he's getting older, so I'm not sure what he's got to give the Grizz than a depth guard.
If I was another NBA team, I'd be inquiring as to what it would take to pry Mike Conley from the Griz. I think the answer at this point is not much; in a better situation with a cast of players that didn't revolve constantly, I think he could still be a servicable guard in the NBA.
posted by dfleming at 05:26 PM on November 14
It's unfair that Scott's taken the heat for a lot of lousy moves by Bower; Mo Pete, Peja and James Posey were all not worth the contracts they were given, and outside of drafting Chris Paul (a no-brainer), his draft record is suspect. Hilton Armstrong and Julian Wright haven't shown that they're worth mid-first round selections.
I think when Chris Paul walks in a couple of years, there'll be a lot of eyes on this move as to why he did it.
posted by dfleming at 10:17 AM on November 13
It goes to show how important an offensive line is. The difference between last year's Cutler and this year's Cutler is immense.
posted by dfleming at 10:09 AM on November 13
NFL versus soulless marketing executives. I'm confused: someone tell me who to hate on this one. Or can I root against both sides?
I've got a good one for you; a bunch of marketing people and NFL executives get on a plane. The plane crashes.
What, aren't you smiling now?
posted by dfleming at 06:50 PM on November 12
Just by putting up decent numbers doesn't automatically makes him a star.
Decent numbers? Try top 3 scoring numbers. He didn't put up decent numbers; he'd be the top scorer on 91% of the teams in the NBA that season.
I never said anything about Carmelo not being a star player in the NBA, just go back and re-read what I wrote because that's not in there.
I quote: "it wasn't until after playing in the Olympics and winning a gold medal did he see what was needed in order to become a star-caliber player in the NBA."
If you need something to become something, you're not that thing already. If you need an experience to become a star-caliber player, you're not already a star-caliber player, no?
posted by dfleming at 04:13 PM on November 11
Melo has only recently learned how to use his ability to the upmost potential and that was because he had to grow up himself (suspended for DUI, suspended for insubordination). Melo has shown flashes of brilliance in the past but it wasn't until after playing in the Olympics and winning a gold medal did he see what was needed in order to become a star-caliber player in the NBA. Playing alongside Kobe, LeBron & Wade helped Melo develop into the player we see today.
Kenyon Martin? Nene? Marcus Camby? J.R. Smith? Are you kiddin' me?
'Melo was a star before AI came in town; I'm not sure how you can be so revisionist, but putting up 29ppg and 6rpg and being on the All-Star team is the definition of a star. That was when AI was in town. How many all-stars do you want on a single team? Boston's a unique situation but most teams win with two stars and role players.
Camby, in 2006-07, was the defensive player of the year. He's a 4 time all-NBA defender and an elite rebounder. Not bad for a center.
Nene and J.R. show flashes, but they're young talent. Martin is a rugged forward, not a star anymore, but a role player.
It's hard to think this roster with, say, Dwayne Wade, or Kobe, or LeBron, or even Dwight Howard, wouldn't be a lock to go to the finals. They were far from it with AI at the helm, which seems proof enough that he's not at the level you seem to make him out to be.
posted by dfleming at 03:04 PM on November 11
Imagine the transition period; people who have been trained to lead with their heads would still lead with their heads. You can't just undo years of training with a rule change. It'd be a devastating period in football.
posted by dfleming at 12:08 PM on November 11
He was always paired up with a young up & comer (Jerry Stackhouse, Raja Bell, Larry Hughes) and they never meshed or some past his prime veteran (C-Webb, Mutumbo) who wasn't able to keep up with the Sixers style of play and his only teammates that he did have for a few years weren't capable of carrying a team (Eric Snow, Aaron McKie, George Lynch, Tyrone Hill)
Do you think, given Iverson need for thirty shots a night and his inability to see other players at crunch time, was a valid reason why other star players didn't go to Philadelphia to play with a first-ballot all-star? Pippen and Jordan, Stockton and Malone, Kobe and Shaq, they all fed off each other and recognized that a second star would need shots and some spotlight. It would be hard, with all the evidence to the contrary, to believe he was a willing co-star.
That is, of course, ignoring the fact he very recently played with Carmelo Anthony, a premiere player, and Kenyon Martin, Nene, Marcus Camby and J.R. Smith, all above average players. How, exactly, was that not a good supporting cast? If he's not over the hill and still in his prime, why couldn't he mesh and get the job done there?
posted by dfleming at 11:42 AM on November 11
He works hard, takes lots of punishment, plays injured, and is a phenomenal talent.
He's also a 34 year old non-mentor who is a black hole on offense; too old to build around and on the decline. He doesn't want to practice and won't share shots with younger players. What team needs that?
posted by dfleming at 09:25 PM on November 10
You know what? Iverson, for all his talent, has absolutely no one around him giving him any good advice. He plays off the bench and plays well and you know what? He might parlay that into a starting job; maybe not with Memphis, but at the deadline, with a playoff team. I understand he's 34 and shouldn't have to earn a starting job, but you know what? He does.
He's finished; not because he's not got anything in the tank, but because he's made it impossible to take a chance on him for another team. He needs to be a starter and as a result, has made it an all-or-nothing situation. There's no chance; there's just insert Iverson for 30+ a game or don't sign him.
It's unfortunate his agent and management haven't told him any of this, or it hasn't sunk in, because he had a real chance to get himself back in the game and he blew it.
posted by dfleming at 05:33 PM on November 10
The San Antonio Spurs, without Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, put up 130 points against the Raptors last night, proving that playing the Raptors is effectively playing a street ball team; all flair and no defense.
posted by dfleming at 07:19 AM on November 10
What don't other cities do it too?
New York City Operating Budget, 2005: 46.9 Billion Dallas City Operating Budget, 2009: 1.09 Billion Boston City Operating Budget, 2009 2.39 Billion
That's a good reason.
posted by dfleming at 07:40 AM on November 09
From the coaches to the scouts to the GM- they have smarter people than you do. You can't buy that.
You can't buy front-office talent? Are you serious? In corporate baseball, you buy everything; the best on-field and off-field talent you can.
They Yankees exist in an environment where spending hundreds of millions of dollars (and more on a new stadium) are sustainable; that's not sustainable in every market. There is nowhere near the same amount of corporate money available in, say, Cincinnati, nor are there the funds to float them millions of dollars of tax-friendly loans. New York is the most resource-friendly market in North America; is it no wonder its sports teams (pre-2005 Rangers, Yankees, Mets) are consistently among the top spenders in the league.
These are simple market realities, not sour grapes, and it's disingenuous to believe that good people in the front office can't be bought the same way that players can. The Yankees are the best team in the league because they've had the resources to staff all-stars from front office to the outfield, year in, year out.
posted by dfleming at 12:10 PM on November 08
It's an herb. Next we'll be citing people for possession of Oregano.
Yeah, and coca leaves are just like basil leaves! Plants can't hurt us, can they?
posted by dfleming at 03:51 PM on November 06
As far as taking pride in being American, I don't tend to think in those terms much at all.
You do, enough to specifically single an immigrant's achievement as something that doesn't stir your American pride. Have you done the same thing for, say, an American-born athlete? I doubt it.
posted by dfleming at 06:51 PM on November 03
Mr. Rovell should remember that most in that beautiful country of yours started out the same way that Keflezighi did. A little historical perspective gives one the notion that all citizens are indeed citizens, no matter how long they've lived there.
posted by dfleming at 02:17 PM on November 03
It sounded crazy at the time but PETA's come out drawing a line from Manu Ginobli to Michael Vick. Note that in the article on Ginobli, the line "no respect or consideration for lives humbler than his own" links to the PETA chronicles on Michael Vick. Unbelievable.
posted by dfleming at 01:42 PM on November 03
If Chad Gaudin starts a World Series game, the Yankees should be disqualified. There are basic standards at play here!
posted by dfleming at 11:21 AM on November 03
Ealey is fine, if spikes wanted to gouge his eyes out he had plenty of time to do so. but what i found out was that on the previous play Ealey spit in his face, and all Spikes did was wipe off the spit and was trying to smear it on Ealey's face.
Got anything to back that statement up?
posted by dfleming at 07:55 AM on November 03
What a shitty play. I hope the SEC throws the book at him. And it hits him in the eye.
posted by dfleming at 09:37 PM on November 02
Rajon Rondo signs a 5yr, 55m deal with the Celtics. As a Raptors fan, I am crying a little bit that for the next five years, we're paying Turkoglu the same money.
posted by dfleming at 10:31 AM on November 02
*searches ebay for nostradamus hat and time machine to redo halloween costume*
posted by dfleming at 07:40 AM on November 02
If a ball hits your temple or strikes you chest, the damage will be the same whether it hits at X speed or X+8 speed.
You, uh, skipped physics class, didn't you?
posted by dfleming at 12:11 PM on October 30
You mean they weren't already doing this?
I guess when he took a leak at halftime, they darted the camera away. No more.
John Madden should be punished for his crimes against sportscasting by having to call the BrettFavreCam. "Oh definitely, I think the man knows how to shave a face! You can see the cross pattern he uses. Incredibly effective!"
posted by dfleming at 03:15 PM on October 29
In a move that will thrill SpoFi fans worldwide, Fox will have a camera on Brett Favre the entire game this Sunday.
posted by dfleming at 02:41 PM on October 29
I've always been a fan of Agassi and his past meth use doesn't diminish what he accomplished IMO but I just don't see why he felt the need to bring something up that's going to make the ATP look awfully bad.
Perhaps twelve years of growing up and not using meth gives one perspective on how stupid the whole thing was.
I don't see the problem; Agassi, now (presumably) sober sees his previous drug use as a problem and the ATP definitely did the wrong thing in covering it up. Bringing those things to light is both good for Agassi and good for the public; if it's bad for the ATP, it's because they acted unethically, not because they're being unfairly treated.
posted by dfleming at 10:31 AM on October 28
LJ has now been suspended indefinitely as the Chiefs look for a way out of his contract.
posted by dfleming at 07:31 PM on October 27
Paul Beeston signs deal to remain with Blue Jays for 3 years. A little good news for long suffering Toronto baseball fans.
At some point, Rogers may need to do something other than bring in former greats to the organization. I don't think Dave Steib's arm could take another comeback.
posted by dfleming at 07:02 PM on October 27
Selfish, selfish, selfish.
Plus, I hear he eats babies. The good-looking babies at that.
posted by dfleming at 04:23 PM on October 27
If he's structurally healthy come camp time, I doubt this is going to seriously affect his draft placement. There are enough teams who need a QB this year who'll ensure he's a first round pick and his numbers are enough to get him a look from someone.
That said, if he's not structurally fixed by draft camp....he's going to be kicking himself for a long time.
posted by dfleming at 07:31 AM on October 27
By the way- I'm a Yankee fan and I feel they will lose. They are the clear underdogs here- due to the intangibles.
Ha. Underdogs? You can't possible be serious. Nearly twice the payroll and a team of all-stars; not to mention plenty of experience at this level of urgency. I appreciate that the Phillies are the reigning champs, but NY won 110 games this year. They're no underdog.
Florida when they make it is an underdog. Tampa was last year. That's an underdog.
While 4/5 of the article was a balanced synopsis of the series, starting with "The Yankees have been away from the World Series for the last five years, and in the meantime, baseball's showcase has flopped on a national scale." is pretty homeristic writing. There are fans all over this country who actually believe that there's been something relevant in the World Series for each of the last five years, myself included.
posted by dfleming at 09:46 PM on October 26
What the Pats did to their opponents in 2007 was shock-and-awe-inspiring, but it was also clinical, ruthless, and joyless. It was not heart-warming and fulfilling to behold.
Says he/she. I had a blast.
posted by dfleming at 11:11 AM on October 25
Tom Brady could use a #3 receiver. I'd take a risk on him, simply because Bellichek would have no problem firing his ass the second he acts up.
posted by dfleming at 02:37 PM on October 24
It's a measure of my immaturity that I'm frustrated by censoring a word that I wouldn't know even it you gave me all the letters.
Seconded. I keep filling "poop" in for it.
posted by dfleming at 12:06 PM on October 23
I don't know, if you measure it against the emotional and physical abuse most future pro jocks subject their classmates to on the way to the top, being heckled by fans seems like just deserts. Call it revenge of the nerds.
In my experience, again, it's never nerds, or even jerk teenagers who go that extra mile; it's the former athletes, the ones who never made it, the ones who've lived a life eating sour grapes, that throw this kind of stuff around. I don't really know if that applies in this situation, but it seems like the average person who got beat up in high school by jocks either doesn't follow sports or does so politely.
Score another win for the geeks. They're good people.
posted by dfleming at 10:49 AM on October 23
Iraqi Detainees Have Become Vikings Fans
(who's Brent?)
A great t-shirt.