December 21, 2018

SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em Week 16: Ask Me About My Fantasy Team Edition: The second-to-last week of the NFL season begins Saturday at 4:30 p.m. when Washington visits Tennessee. Show up early and Washington may let you start at quarterback. Things just got interesting in the SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em. Tron7 won the week with 76 and cut the lead of Truthhurts by 30. Only 14 points now separate them. Ic23b is in third place 39 back. Make your picks.

How This Works

SportsFilter is running a season-long NFL Pick 'Em contest and awarding a prize to the season's winner: an official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

To play, pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 3 more points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 2 more points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game.

Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Miami by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Miami by 208 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Miami by 105 points (winner only)
Miami by 1510 points (winner + nailed spread)
Miami by 50 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose any game as a stone cold lead pipe lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team doesn't win, you lose 10 points (even if you get the spread). You can make as many picks a lock as you like or pick no locks at all.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Hall of Champions

2016-17: Ufez Jones
2017-18: Tron7
2018-19: Tron7

This Week's Games

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday)
L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday)
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday)
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday)
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday)
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday)
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday)
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday)
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday)
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday)

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade to football at 07:06 PM - 16 comments

NFL Picks

Cleveland by 6
Dallas by 10 - LOCK
Minnesota by 3
Tennessee by 7 - LOCK
Indianapolis by 10 - LOCK
Jacksonville by 3
New England by 10 - LOCK
Green Bay by 6
Philadelphia by 7
Carolina by 6
Los Angeles Rams by 7 - LOCK
Los Angeles Chargers by 7
Chicago by 9 - LOCK
New Orleans by 6
Kansas City by 3
Denver by 3

posted by tron7 at 02:51 PM on December 21

NFL Picks

Atlanta by 14

Tennessee by 10

Chargers by 17

Dallas by 17

Minnesota by 3

Indianapolis by 6

Miami by 7

New England by 21

Green Bay by 14

Houston by 7

Cleveland by 11

Rams by 21

Chicago by 14

New Orleans by 10

Seattle by 2

Denver by 9

Lock 'em up, rcade !!

posted by tommytrump at 06:34 PM on December 21

For the record I did not check out tron's picks before doing mine

Washington at Tennessee Titans by 14 LOCK
Baltimore at L.A. Chargers Chargers by 6
Cincinnati at Cleveland Browns by 7
Tampa Bay at Dallas Cowboys by 14 LOCK
Minnesota at Detroit Vikings by 10 LOCK
N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis Colts by 5
Jacksonville at Miami Dolphins by 3
Buffalo at New England Patriots by 17 LOCK
Green Bay at N.Y. Jets Packers by 7
Houston at Philadelphia Eagles by 3
Atlanta at Carolina Falcons by 5
L.A. Rams at Arizona Rams by 17 LOCK
Chicago at San Francisco Bears by 10
Pittsburgh at New Orleans Saints by 7
Kansas City at Seattle Chiefs by 7
Denver at Oakland Broncos by 3

posted by truthhurts at 07:41 PM on December 21

Tennessee by 7
L.A. Chargers by 7

posted by NoMich at 08:03 PM on December 21

Washington by 3
L.A. Chargers by 12
Cleveland by 13

Dallas by 9
Minnesota by 10
Indianapolis by 17
Miami by 7
New England by 23
Green Bay by 7
Houston by 11
Atlanta by 7
L.A. Rams by 27
Chicago by 10
New Orleans by 10
Kansas City by 7
Denver by 13

posted by grum@work at 09:24 PM on December 21

Tennessee by 10 (LOCK)

L.A. Chargers by 6

Cleveland by 7 (LOCK)

Dallas by 3

Minnesota by 13 (LOCK)

Indianapolis by 10

Miami by 3

New England by 13 (LOCK)

Green Bay by 6

Philadelphia by 3

Atlanta by 7

L.A,Rams by 24 (LOCK)

Chicago by 17 (LOCK)

New Orleans by 3

Kansas City by 10

Denver by 6

posted by ic23b at 09:57 PM on December 21

Here we are sitting in 4th place, trying to make sure a certain individual who runs this thing didn't major in Creative Mathematics in college.

Native Americans were run out of Tennessee a couple of centuries ago. The trend will continue. Tennessee by 9

Ravens are corvids, same family as crows, jays, and the like, which are sociable birds. Sociability does not go very far on a football field. Los Angeles (American Conference) by 7

Two teams from the opposite corners of the state meet to determine the championship of Ohio. The Cuyahoga River is mightier than the Ohio. Cleveland by 6

No matter what else is going on with the Patriots, one cannot bet against them when they are at home. New England by 13

If this were the Rays vs the Rangers, the team from Florida might have a chance. Dallas by 15 LOCK

Panthers have a quarterback who is not healthy. Falcons don't do well on the road. Is Sunday to be different? Atlanta by 11

Colts are enjoying a resurgence, while Giants are experiencing something entirely different. Indianapolis by 10

Dolphind sctually have a slight chance of making it into the playoffs as the 2nd wild card. It will take some very strange things to happen, but it is possible. Jaguars, on the other hand, have a chance to get a very nice position in the draft. Miami by 17

Both teams go into this one with just one thought, "Is the season over yet?". New York (American Conference) by 3

Home and road records for the Texans are identical, 5-2. They need this one on the road to maintain the 2nd overall spot in the AFC, but the Eagles looked like they might have figured something out last week. Philadelphia by 8

Vikings are another team that has the prospect of getting into the playoffs as a wild card. Minnesota by 12

Bears will be the number 3 seed in the NFC no matter what they do. Will they rest some players? Keeping Trubisky off the field might be a good idea. Chicago by 9

Rams will be playing for a chance at the top spot in the NFC. Loa Angeles (National Conference) by 17 LOCK

Seahawks at home can be very difficult to beat, and they have finally begun to play well. Seattle by 4

A sort of memorial to what once was in the AFC West, this one offers very little of the former glory. Oakland by 6

posted by Howard_T at 11:40 PM on December 21

Tennessee by 4

L.A. Chargers by 7

Cleveland by 6 LOCK

Dallas by 7 (did I just pick Dallas to win a game in December?)

Minnesota by 4

Indianapolis by 7

Miami by 7 LOCK

New England by 4

Green Bay by 4

Philadelphia by 7

Carolina by 6

L.A. Rams by 14 LOCK

Chicago by 10 LOCK

Pittsburgh by 4

KC by 4 (now I'm betting against Russell in a big game?)

Denver by 4 (NFL serves us a Turkey on the 24th)

posted by cixelsyd at 12:49 AM on December 22

Howard_T, I like your style.

And not that I think I can come close to it on such short notice, and with such adeptness, I'm gonna give it hell anyway. ;-) But only on the 1st pick.

The Titans are a team of traitor's from Houston, TX & they've never run anyone out of Tennessee. Least of all, any American Indian's. Redskins by 6 LOCK

Chargers by 8 LOCK

Girls by 12 LOCK

Pats by 16 LOCK

Panthers by 6 LOCK

Fish by 10 LOCK

Indy by 20 LOCK

Texans by 5 LOCK

Lions by 7 LOCK

Browns by 2 LOCK

Rams by 8 LOCK

Bears by 11 LOCK

Steelers by 4 LOCK

Chiefs by 10 LOCK

Broncos by 11 LOCK

posted by 9mmHeater at 02:12 AM on December 22

Tennessee by 7 <-- lock
L.A. Chargers by 3 <-- lock
Cleveland by 7 <-- lock
Dallas by 7 <-- lock
Minnesota by 7 <-- lock
Indianapolis by 7 <-- lock
Miami by 7 <-- lock
New England by 7 <-- lock
N.Y. Jets by 7 <-- lock
Houston by 3 <-- lock
Atlanta by 7 <-- lock
L.A. Rams by 7 <-- lock
Chicago by 7 <-- lock
New Orleans by 3 <-- lock
Kansas City by 3 <-- lock
Denver by 7 <-- lock

posted by rcade at 11:03 AM on December 22

Tennessee by 13 LOCK

San...er... LA by 8

posted by tahoemoj at 11:14 AM on December 22

LOCK ALL OF THEM:

Tennessee by 3

LA Chargers by 4

Cleveland by 3

Dallas by 14

Minnesota by 3

Indianapolis by 7

Jacksonville by 3

New England by 10

Green Bay by 3

Philadelphia by 6

Atlanta by 2

LA Rams by 17

Chicago by 8

New Orleans by 4

Kansas City by 6

Denver by 3

posted by jagsnumberone at 02:19 PM on December 22

LOCK LA Chargers by 7 LOCK

posted by bender at 06:19 PM on December 22

LOCK LA Chargers by 7 LOCK
Cleveland by 3
Dallas by 3
Minnesota by 3
Indianapolis by 4
Miami by 3
LOCK New England by 14 LOCK
N.Y. Jets by 6
LOCK Houston by 10 LOCK
LOCK Atlanta by 10 LOCK
LOCK L.A. Rams by 21 LOCK

Chicago by 6
New Orleans by 4
Kansas City by 7
Oakland by 3

posted by bender at 02:12 AM on December 23

Cleveland by 10

Dallas by 14 LOCK

Minnesota by 7

Indianapolis by 17 LOCK

Jacksonville by 6

New England by 13 LOCK

Green Bay by 6

Houston by 3

Atlanta by 10

L.A. Rams by 13 LOCK

Chicago by 10 LOCK

New Orleans by 10

Kansas City by 6

Oakland by 3

posted by tahoemoj at 10:59 AM on December 23

For the record I did not check out tron's picks before doing mine

That's an interesting dilemma. When I'm in the lead near the end of a contest I usually pick early, figuring that anybody who checks my picks will see a slate heavy on selecting favorites, forcing them to take a risk on more underdogs.

When I'm close to the lead I usually avoid looking at the leader's picks to keep from going for too many underdogs.

This season I've avoided such concerns, so I just pick according to whims. I'm on a 3- or 7-point lock 'em all gimmick.

posted by rcade at 09:31 AM on December 24

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