December 13, 2018

SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em Week 15: Miracle in Miami Edition: With only three weeks left in the NFL season, the Chargers visit the Chiefs tonight and two more early games are played Saturday. In SportsFilter's NFL Pick 'Em, Truthhurts climbs to a 44-point lead on a week-winning 64, followed by Tron7 and Ic23b. If you're having trouble believing you can still win this, keep this number in mind: 99.9%. It's the Patriots' win probability before the final play against Miami Sunday. Make your picks.

How This Works

SportsFilter is running a season-long NFL Pick 'Em contest and awarding a prize to the season's winner: an official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

To play, pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 3 more points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 2 more points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game.

Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Miami by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Miami by 208 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Miami by 105 points (winner only)
Miami by 1510 points (winner + nailed spread)
Miami by 50 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose any game as a stone cold lead pipe lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team doesn't win, you lose 10 points (even if you get the spread). You can make as many picks a lock as you like or pick no locks at all.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Hall of Champions

2016-17: Ufez Jones
2017-18: Tron7
2018-19: Tron7

This Week's Games

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday)
L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday)
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday)
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday)
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday)
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday)
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday)
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday)
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday)
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday)

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade to football at 02:17 PM - 23 comments

Will be out of town tomorrow so this is my NFL pick for Thursday.

Kansas City by 6

posted by ic23b at 11:06 PM on December 12

Chiefs by 3

posted by truthhurts at 11:46 AM on December 13

Kansas City by 4

Houston by 6 LOCK

Cleveland by 3

Atlanta by 7 LOCK

Buffalo by 4

Chicago by 3

Cincinnati by 7

Dallas by 7 LOCK

Minnesota by 7 LOCK

N.Y. Giants by 4

Jacksonville by 4

Baltimore by 7 LOCK

Seattle by 9 LOCK

New England by 7

L.A. Rams by 4

New Orleans by 4

posted by cixelsyd at 02:26 PM on December 13

Kansas City by 3
Houston by 17
Cleveland by 6
Atlanta by 6
Buffalo by 3
Chicago by 7
Cincinnati by 6
Dallas by 7
Miami by 9
Tennessee by 7
Washington by 13
Baltimore by 7
Seattle by 7
New England by 3
L.A. Rams by 11
New Orleans by 17

posted by grum@work at 02:36 PM on December 13

Kansas City by 4
Arizona by 7
Detroit by 7
Chicago by 7
Cincinnati by 7
Dallas by 7
Minnesota by 7
Tennessee by 7
Jacksonville by 7
Baltimore by 7
Seattle by 7
Pittsburgh by 7
L.A. Rams by 7
New Orleans by 7

posted by rcade at 04:05 PM on December 13

I could have not played last week and done better/smh.

Kansas City by 3 LOCK

posted by jagsnumberone at 04:26 PM on December 13

L.A. Chargers by 6

posted by NoMich at 04:38 PM on December 13

99.9%. It's the Patriots' win probability before the final play against Miami Sunday.

What's the pick version of having Gronk play safety?

Kansas City by 3
Houston by 3 - LOCK
Denver by 3
Atlanta by 10 - LOCK
Buffalo by 3
Chicago by 3
Cincinnati by 8
Indianapolis by 3
Minnesota by 10 - LOCK
N.Y. Giants by 6
Jacksonville by 3
Baltimore by 6 - LOCK
Seattle by 7
Pittsburgh by 7
L.A. Rams by 10 - LOCK
New Orleans by 7 - LOCK

posted by tron7 at 04:40 PM on December 13

LOCK Kansas City by 10 LOCK
LOCK Houston by 14 LOCK
Denver by 3
LOCK Atlanta by 13 LOCK
Buffalo by 2
LOCK Chicago by 11 LOCK
Cincinnati by 5
Dallas by 5
Minnesota by 4
Tennessee by 4
Jacksonville by 7
Baltimore by 4
Seattle by 4
New England by 5
LOCK L.A. Rams by 10 LOCK
New Orleans by 7

posted by bender at 05:45 PM on December 13

Made it home in time so here we go.

Kansas City by 6

Houston by 7

Cleveland by 3

Atlanta by 10 (LOCK)

Buffalo by 4

Chicago by 13

Oakland by 3

Dallas by 3

Minnesota by 14

N.Y.Giants by 6

Jacksonville by 3

Baltimore by 17

Seattle by 10 (LOCK)

New England by 6

L.A. Rams by 10

New Orleans by 13

posted by ic23b at 05:56 PM on December 13

Kansas City by 12 Lock

posted by tommytrump at 06:54 PM on December 13

Chargers by 5 LOCK

posted by 9mmHeater at 06:55 PM on December 13

Houston by 21

Denver by 7

Atlanta by 21

Detroit by 14

Green Bay by 7

Cincinnati by 7

Indianapolis by 7

Miami by 7

Tennessee by 7

Jacksonville by 4

Tampa Bay by 7

Seattle by 17

New England by 7

L.A. Rams by 7

New Orleans by 21

Lock 'em all up, rcade !!

posted by tommytrump at 07:50 PM on December 13

How did I have a bad week and still move up one place in the standings? It don't make no good sense.

This is a real test for Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. It might be more of a test for the Chiefs. Can their defense withstand Rivers? Can their offense do enough against a decent defense to offset Rivers ? Kansas City by 7

This one has easy win written all over it. Trouble is, auto correct might change things. Houston by 9

Browns didn't let me down last week, but Broncos did. Broncos are at home in the mile high. Denver by 10

No no, Buccaneers, that's not a parrot to put on your shoulder, it's a Raven, a member of the corvid family, and they bite. Baltimore by 13 LOCK

Birds of a feather flock together. These 2 have different feathers, so there will be no flocking around. Atlanta by 16 LOCK

Cowboys spend an afternoon breaking in young horses. Dallas by 6

Dolphins are full of themselves after opening their early Christmas gift last week. Vikings are the Grinch. Minnesota by 14 LOCK

Detroit is on the St. Clair River, between Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Buffalo is on the Niagara River, between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Does the winner receive possession of Lake Erie? Buffalo by 5

This one could wrap up the NFC North for Bears. Chicago by 13 LOCK

Raiders may now be renamed the Orphans: Bengals may be renamed with names unprintable. Cincinnati by 6

Native Americans coaching is being questioned by the players. If the team receives federal subsidies, will the coaches be questioned by the FBI? Jacksonville by 14

Two teams with nicknames representing very large people. Is a Titan bigger than a Giant, or is it the other way around? Tennessee by 3

Seahawks have finally taken flight; 49ers should finally take cover. Seattle by 17 LOCK

Patriots attempt an ill-conceived multiple lateral play as a last gasp effort. Steelers intercept a lateral, but then fumble the ball. Patriots pick it up and return it 63 yards for the winning score. New England by 7

The bald eagle is still a threatened species. So is the Philadelphia Eagle. Los Angeles (National Conference) by 16 LOCK

Saints continue the march to the NFC South title. New Orleans by 10

posted by Howard_T at 08:09 PM on December 13

I see that 9mm and I were the only smart ones in the room last night. However, the Heater had the nards to actually lock his pick up. high five, brother!

posted by NoMich at 08:41 AM on December 14

Texans by 10 lock Browns by 3

posted by truthhurts at 04:12 PM on December 14

Arizona at Atlanta Falcons by 10 LOCK
Detroit at Buffalo Bills by 3
Green Bay at Chicago Bears by 6
Oakland at Cincinnati Bengals by 7
Dallas at Indianapolis Colts by 3
Miami at Minnesota Vikings by 7
Tennessee at N.Y. Giants Giants by 7
Washington at Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 LOCK
Tampa Bay at Baltimore Ravens by 7
Seattle at San Francisco Seahawks by 3
New England at Pittsburgh Patriots by 3
Philadelphia at L.A. Rams Rams by 10 LOCK
New Orleans at Carolina Saints by 14 LOCK

posted by truthhurts at 01:27 AM on December 15

Houston by 7
Denver by 5

posted by NoMich at 10:04 AM on December 15

Negative 5 last week...lock Thursday's loss...forget about Saturday's game's until it's too late...It's desperation, "Hail Mary" time.

Kansas City by 3 LOCK (earlier in thread, unfortunately)

Houston/NY Jets- no pick

Cleveland/Denver-no pick (at least, I didn't lose any points/lol)

Atlanta by 7 LOCK

Buffalo by 4 LOCK

Chicago by 5 LOCK

Cincinnati by 3 LOCK

Dallas by 3 LOCK

Minnesota by 7 LOCK

NY Giants by 2 LOCK

Jacksonville by 6 LOCK (and take the "over" since everyone thinks this will be very low scoring-Kessler gets hurt and Bortles comes in and the teams exchange broken plays after broken plays for a 35-29 win for the Jags/lol)

Baltimore by 10 LOCK

Seattle by 7 LOCK

Pittsburgh by 4 LOCK

LA Rams by 14 LOCK

New Orleans by 7 LOCK

posted by jagsnumberone at 12:54 PM on December 16

Back at ya, NoMich.

It's a shame my dumb ass missed making the REST of the damn picks this week, tho! LOL

And, in honesty, I've been locking every single game for about 5 weeks now I think. But, I still appreciate making up 50% of the 'smart' ones here on the Chargers. :-)

posted by 9mmHeater at 04:18 AM on December 17

Ha! Just saw where you nailed my Texans for a perfect spread too.

Alas....no Lock once more. Appreciate the good Karma for my Texans tho, bro.

posted by 9mmHeater at 04:21 AM on December 17

Hehe....ummm Saints by 9 LOCK

posted by 9mmHeater at 04:27 AM on December 17

Dammit. Down in Vegas for a hearing last week, no time to lollygag on my favorite community sports blog.

New Orleans by 14 LOCK

posted by tahoemoj at 03:11 PM on December 17

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