December 06, 2018

SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em Week 14: Shut the F--- Up, Thielen Edition: Week 14 of the NFL season begins tonight with a game I will always view as a revenge opportunity for the 1999 AFC Championship Game: Jaguars vs. Titans. There's a new leader in the SportsFilter Pick 'Em for the first time in 10 weeks -- Truthhurts scored 72 to take an 11-point lead over Tron7. Ic23b stays in third. Jagsnumberone wins the week with 74. Make your picks and never get in a yelling match with a man who was born ornery and only got worse from there.

How This Works

SportsFilter is running a season-long NFL Pick 'Em contest and awarding a prize to the season's winner: an official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

To play, pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 3 more points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 2 more points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game.

Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Miami by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Miami by 208 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Miami by 105 points (winner only)
Miami by 1510 points (winner + nailed spread)
Miami by 50 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose any game as a stone cold lead pipe lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team doesn't win, you lose 10 points (even if you get the spread). You can make as many picks a lock as you like or pick no locks at all.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Hall of Champions

2016-17: Ufez Jones
2017-18: Tron7
2018-19: Tron7

This Week's Games

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday)
L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday)
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday)
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday)
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday)
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday)
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday)
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday)
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday)
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday)

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade to football at 12:27 PM - 21 comments

I missed the early Sunday games and did that thing where you lock all the remaining games. It worked! Six for six with one exactamundo, Ralph Malph. This is where my climb to the championship began.

posted by rcade at 12:34 PM on December 06

Tennessee BY 4 LOCK

Buffalo BY 6 LOCK

Cleveland BY 3

Green Bay BY 7

Kansas City BY 10 LOCK

New England BY 9

New Orleans BY 4

N.Y. Giants NY 7

Houston BY 4

L.A. Chargers BY 9 LOCK

San Francisco BY 3

Philadelphia BY 7

Pittsburgh BY 9 LOCK

Arizona BY 3

L.A. Rams BY 6

Seattle BY 4

posted by cixelsyd at 12:45 PM on December 06

Tennessee by 7
Buffalo by 6
Carolina by 13
Green Bay by 7
Kansas City by 10
New England by 17
New Orleans by 14

Washington by 7
Houston by 9
L.A. Chargers by 14
Denver by 3
Dallas by 9
Pittsburgh by 17
Detroit by 3
L.A. Rams by 6
Minnesota by 3

posted by grum@work at 01:02 PM on December 06

Tennessee by 12 LOCK

N.Y. Jets by 7 LOCK

Carolina by 4 LOCK

Atlanta by 9 LOCK

Kansas City by 10 LOCK

New England by 14 LOCK

New Orleans by 20 LOCK

N.Y. Giants BY 4 LOCK

Houston by 5 LOCK

L.A. Chargers by 15 LOCK

Denver by 10 LOCK

Philadelphia by 11 LOCK

Pittsburgh by 17 LOCK

Detroit by 12 LOCK

L.A. Rams by 8 LOCK

Seattle BY 8 LOCK

posted by tommytrump at 01:25 PM on December 06

LOCK Tennessee by 9 LOCK
Buffalo by 5
LOCK Carolina by 8 LOCK
Atlanta by 7
LOCK Kansas City by 14 LOCK
Miami by 3
New Orleans by 10
N.Y. Giants by 4
LOCK Houston by 10 LOCK
LOCK L.A. Chargers by 14 LOCK
San Francisco by 3
Dallas by 5
Pittsburgh by 7
Arizona by 4
L.A. Rams by 6
LOCK Seattle by 7 LOCK

posted by bender at 01:32 PM on December 06

Titans by 10

posted by truthhurts at 01:44 PM on December 06

Here's a surprise, I'll go ... Jacksonville by 3. I'll even call the score. Jags will get a defensive touchdown, then after a bad punt, put together a 15 yard drive and kick a 52 yard field goal, while Blaine Gabbert (Mariotta gets hurt in the 2nd quarter) throws an interception to Ramsey with 52 seconds left, sealing the 10-7 victory. ESPN will spend 10 minutes talking about how bad these teams are/lol. DDDDUUUUVVVVVAAAALLLL.

posted by jagsnumberone at 02:47 PM on December 06

Jacksonville by 3

Buffalo by 3

Carolina by 7

Atlanta by by 6

Kansas City by 12 (LOCK)

New England by 17 (LOCK)

New Orleans by 24 (LOCK)

New York Giants by 3

Houston by 10

L.A. Chargers by 13 (LOCK)

Denver by 10 (LOCK)

Dallas by 3

Pittsburgh by 12

Arizona by 7 (My Lions can't beat anyone)

L.A. Rams by 6

Seattle by 3

posted by ic23b at 02:55 PM on December 06

Jacksonville by 3
Buffalo by 3
Cleveland by 3
Green Bay by 17 - LOCK
Kansas City by 6
New England by 7 - LOCK
New Orleans by 8 - LOCK
N.Y. Giants by 3
Houston by 7
L.A. Chargers by 13 - LOCK
Denver by 7
Dallas by 3
Pittsburgh by 13 - LOCK
Arizona by 3
L.A. Rams by 7 - LOCK
Seattle by 3

posted by tron7 at 03:03 PM on December 06

Tennessee by sleep...errr...I mean 6

posted by NoMich at 03:23 PM on December 06

Here we are, once again sitting comfortably in 5th place while tending to score in the high 40s to low 50s most weeks. It's called consistent mediocrity, sort of like most chain restaurants or fast food places. Now I've made myself hungry. I will do shrimp scampi with angel hair pasta tonight before we head for the Celtics game.

There's some faint hope for Titans to grab a wild card spot, but Pittsburgh and Baltimore would need to self-destruct. Still, you can't make it if you don't win. Tennessee by 6

Disappointing Panthers vs the "giving it a good try' Browns. Do the Panthers have any pride? Maybe, but they also have a sore-armed QB. Cleveland by 7

Chiefs are very much in the hunt, but the Hunt is no longer a Chief. Ravens are hoping for a playoff spot. Kansas City by 13

The little ponies were prancing for a bit, but will stumble again here. Houston by 14 LOCK

Some insist it's coming from frigid New England to the heat and humidity of Miami, others say there's something about the stadium - perhaps the natural grass vs turf - that makes the Patriots have such a difficult time there. Whatever the cause, it won't apply Sunday. New England by 16

Native Americans do not have a quarterback. Then again, maybe the Giants don't have one either. What sort of outcome will this game Foster? New York (National Conference) by 9

Saints might be just a little bit ticked off about last week's result. This one is for the championship of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. New Orleans by 17 LOCK

Teams have unpredictable reactions to the firing of a head coach. Packers might be fired up about it and play their heads off. Green Bay by 3

Jets vs Bills. Man, I can't wait to miss this one. Buffalo by 8

This is another potential mismatch. Potential? Who am I kidding? Los Angeles (American Conference) by 19 LOCK

Broncos should have an easy ride in this one. Denver by 14 LOCK

The NFC East is at stake here. The stake will be driven through the heart of the Eagles. Dallas by 10 LOCK

Steelers sort of stepped on their own pecker last week, meaning they really need this one against Raiders. While I would dearly love to see them stumble, it's not probable. Pittsburgh by 7

Big kitties chase small birds. Can the kitties catch them? Detroit by 3

I have to go with the billy goats here. Los Angeles (National Conference) by 17 LOCK

Were the Seahawks watching Vikings' loss last week? If so, did they learn anything? Perhaps Vikings also learned much. Minnesota by 3

posted by Howard_T at 04:43 PM on December 06

Tennessee by 6 (Quite possibly the only 6 points scored)

Buffalo by 10 (Can we move the Pats to a different division for a few seasons? It would be nice to see if another team could lock down AFC home field if the Pats aren't gifted 6 wins every fucking year in divisional play)

Carolina by 7

Green Bay by 13

Kansas City by 17 LOCK

New England by 20 LOCK

New Orleans by 16 LOCK

N.Y. Giants by 10 LOCK

Houston by 6

L.A. Chargers by 18 LOCK (Unless the legendary Jeff Driskell to Cody Core combination takes over)

Denver by 6

Dallas by 4

Pittsburgh by 12 LOCK

Arizona by 3

L.A. Rams by 8 LOCK

Seattle by 6

posted by tahoemoj at 05:01 PM on December 06

Jacksonville by 3 <-- lock
Buffalo by 6
Carolina by 4
Green Bay by 1
Kansas City by 6
New England by 7
New Orleans by 7 <-- lock
Washington by 6
Houston by 5
L.A. Chargers by 12 <-- lock
Denver by 4
Dallas by 3
Pittsburgh by 9
Detroit by 3
L.A. Rams by 2
Seattle by 4

posted by rcade at 07:29 PM on December 06

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo Bills by 4
Carolina at Cleveland Browns by 3
Atlanta at Green Bay Packers by 10 LOCK
Baltimore at Kansas City Chiefs by 10
New England at Miami Patriots by 10 LOCK
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Saints by 14 LOCK
N.Y. Giants at Washington Giants by 7
Indianapolis at Houston Texans by 7
Cincinnati at L.A. Chargers Chargers by 20 LOCK
Denver at San Francisco Broncos by 7
Philadelphia at Dallas Cowboys by 7
Pittsburgh at Oakland Steelers by 17 LOCK
Detroit at Arizona Lions by 4
L.A. Rams at Chicago Rams by 7
Minnesota at Seattle Seahawks by 3

posted by truthhurts at 12:25 AM on December 07

Jacksonville by 3 <-- lock

I have a gift.

posted by rcade at 10:12 AM on December 07

Something's gotta give.

Ravens by 4 LOCK

Texans by 8 LOCK

Browns by 10 LOCK

Packers by 12 LOCK

Saints by 2 LOCK

Bills by 6 LOCK

Fish by 4 LOCK

Skins by 5 LOCK

Broncos by 11 LOCK

Chargers by 8 LOCK

Cards by 2 LOCK

CowGirls by 6 LOCK

Steelers by 7 LOCK

Bears by 5 LOCK

Vikings by 8 LOCK

posted by 9mmHeater at 06:11 PM on December 07

Adam Thielen was born ornery?

posted by beaverboard at 01:03 AM on December 08

I was referring to William Stephen Belichick, the pride of Annapolis High.

posted by rcade at 11:05 AM on December 08

Jacksonville by 3 (earlier in thread/oh well)

Buffalo by 4

Carolina by 7 LOCK

Green Bay by 3

Kansas City by 10 LOCK

New England by 7 LOCK

New Orleans by 28 LOCK

NY Giants by 3

Houston by 11 LOCK

LA Chargers by 17 LOCK

Denver by 10 LOCK

Philadelphia by 3

Pittsburgh by 10 LOCK

Detroit by 4

LA Rams by 10

Minnesota by 6

posted by jagsnumberone at 04:36 AM on December 09

Tennessee by 6 <<< got that on Thursday

Buffalo by 5
Carolina by 6
Green Bay by 6
Kansas City by 7
New England by 12
New Orleans by 14

N.Y. Giants by 6
Houston by 8
L.A. Chargers by 12
Denver by 6
Dallas by 10
Pittsburgh by 13

Arizona by 5
L.A. Rams by 5
Seattle by 6

posted by NoMich at 11:35 AM on December 09

Washington by 6

I have a gift.

posted by rcade at 02:26 PM on December 09

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