November 29, 2018

SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em Week 13: So Dumb He Punched a Helmet Edition: Week 13 of the NFL season begins with the New Orleans Saints taking I-10 to I-49 to I-20 to I-30 to play the Dallas Cowboys. In the NFL Pick 'Em shit just got real yo. Truthhurts chopped 24 points off Tron7's first-place lead by scoring 120. NoMich topped that with 122! Ic23b, anti-climactically, is in third. Make your picks and have a kind thought for the fantasy football owners and Jaguars fans who saw Leonard Fournette brawl his way out of a game he was dominating.

How This Works

SportsFilter is running a season-long NFL Pick 'Em contest and awarding a prize to the season's winner: an official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

To play, pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 3 more points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 2 more points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game.


Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
So if you picked Miami by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Miami by 208 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Miami by 105 points (winner only)
Miami by 1510 points (winner + nailed spread)
Miami by 50 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose any game as a stone cold lead pipe lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team doesn't win, you lose 10 points (even if you get the spread). You can make as many picks a lock as you like or pick no locks at all.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Hall of Champions

2016-17: Ufez Jones
2017-18: Tron7
2018-19: Tron7

This Week's Games

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday)
L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday)
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday)
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday)
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday)
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday)
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday)
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday)
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday)
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday)

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade to football at 02:48 PM - 27 comments

NFL Pick

Saints by 17 LOCK

posted by truthhurts at 02:29 PM on November 29

Truthhurts went 5-of-5 on locks with two close margins and one exactamundo. Pretty cool, Fonzie!

posted by rcade at 02:55 PM on November 29

122 points! The painful truth was the only one that dared to fly that high with me and he lived to tell the tale

New Orleans by 8

posted by NoMich at 02:56 PM on November 29

Your path to 122 was more dramatic than Truth's 120. Two busted locks! Three locked perfect scores!

posted by rcade at 03:05 PM on November 29

I told tron I was coming after him, and I still am! I'm now only 299 points behind him.

posted by NoMich at 03:07 PM on November 29

NoMich clearly had an "in" with the people who fix the NFL games! :)

posted by truthhurts at 03:24 PM on November 29

Saints by 17 LOCK

posted by truthhurts at 03:25 PM on November 29

LOCK New Orleans by 14 LOCK
Atlanta by 4
Cincinnati by 3
LOCK L.A. Rams by 21 LOCK
LOCK Green Bay by 12 LOCK
Miami by 7
LOCK Chicago by 13 LOCK
Carolina by 3
Indianapolis by 7
LOCK Houston by 18 LOCK
Tennessee by 6
LOCK Kansas City by 14 LOCK
LOCK New England by 10 LOCK
LOCK Seattle by 10 LOCK
L.A. Chargers by 4
Philadelphia by 4

posted by bender at 03:58 PM on November 29

New Orleans by 6 - LOCK
Baltimore by 6
Denver by 7
L.A. Rams by 17 - LOCK
Green Bay by 17 - LOCK
Miami by 6
Chicago by 3
Carolina by 11- LOCK
Indianapolis by 3
Houston by 3
Tennessee by 3
Kansas City by 13 - LOCK
New England by 3
Seattle by 13 - LOCK
Pittsburgh on by 3
Washington by 3

posted by tron7 at 04:04 PM on November 29

New Orleans by 27

Baltimore by 6

Denver by 11

L.A. Rams by 17

Green Bay by 21

Buffalo by 6

Chicago by 14

Carolina by 14

Indianapolis by 10

Houston by 21

Tennessee by 17

Kansas City by 24

New England by 5

Seattle by 12

L.A. Chargers by 8

Philadelphia by 9

posted by tommytrump at 04:53 PM on November 29

Going to pick tonight's game now, and get to the rest later. (Is that sort of like deferring your choice to the second half?)

Cowboys have been winning of late, and many of the talking heads have been praising their defense. Er ... excuse me, they are playing the Saints this week. New Orleans by 10 LOCK

posted by Howard_T at 05:49 PM on November 29

CowGirls by 5 LOCK

posted by 9mmHeater at 06:05 PM on November 29

New Orleans by 14
Baltimore by 7
Denver by 9
L.A. Rams by 13
Green Bay by 6
Buffalo by 3
Chicago by 9
Carolina by 11
Indianapolis by 24
Houston by 17

Tennessee by 6
Kansas City by 21
New England by 7
Seattle by 8
Pittsburgh by 3
Washington by 7

posted by grum@work at 06:17 PM on November 29

He he. 69. He he.

New Orleans by 13 LOCK.

69. He he.

posted by tahoemoj at 06:57 PM on November 29

Conspiracy theorists and lone gunman advocates both find the well supported locking action appropriate for Dallas - New Orleans.

posted by beaverboard at 07:27 PM on November 29

New Orleans by 17 <-- lock
Tennessee by 9 <-- lock
Kansas City by 13 <-- lock
New England by 7 <-- lock
Seattle by 10 <-- lock
L.A. Chargers by 3 <-- lock
Philadelphia by 7 <-- lock

posted by rcade at 07:50 PM on November 29

New Orleans by 17

posted by ic23b at 08:09 PM on November 29

Now for the rest of the picks.

Atlanta by 4

Denver by 6

L.A.Rams by 23 (LOCK)

Green Bay by 13 (LOCK)

Buffalo by 3

Chicago by 10

Carolina by 9

Indianapolis by 12

Houston by 3

Tennessee by 3

Kansas City by 26 (LOCK)

New England by 3

Seattle by 17 (LOCK)

Pittsburgh by 3

Philadelphia by 7

posted by ic23b at 11:26 PM on November 29

Sending a limo for rcade to bring him to our Dallas D-liever thanks and praise breakfast buffet at the Hilton Garden Inn which kicks off in half an hour.

posted by beaverboard at 07:30 AM on November 30

Picking against your childhood team by 17 and seeing them do that is a shaming experience. The Ghost of Crazy Ray is not pleased.

That defense looks like last year's Jaguars. They are fun to watch.

posted by rcade at 11:08 AM on November 30

New Orleans by 13 BUSTED LOCK. YAY.

Atlanta by 6

Denver by 13 LOCK

L.A. Rams by 13 LOCK

Green Bay by 9 LOCK

Buffalo by 6

Chicago by 7

Carolina by 6

Indianapolis by 10

Houston by 10 LOCK

Tennessee by 6

Kansas City by 23 LCK

New England by 6

Seattle by 10 LOCK

Pittsburgh by 10

Philadelphia by 7

posted by tahoemoj at 12:51 PM on November 30

Atlanta by 7

Cincinnati by 4

L.A. Rams by 10 LOCK

Green Bay by 10 LOCK

Miami by 6

Chicago by 7

Carolina by 4

Indianapolis by 7

Houston by 4

Tennessee by 6

Kansas City by 23 LOCK

New England by 7

Seattle by 10

Pittsburgh by 7

Philadelphia by 7

posted by cixelsyd at 12:17 AM on December 01

Baltimore at Atlanta Ravens by 3
Denver at Cincinnati Broncos by 7
L.A. Rams at Detroit Rams by 17 LOCK
Arizona at Green Bay Packers by 14 LOCK
Buffalo at Miami Dolphins by 10
Chicago at N.Y. Giants Bears by 10
Carolina at Tampa Bay Panthers by 10
Indianapolis at Jacksonville Colts by 7
Cleveland at Houston Texans by 10
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee Titans by 7 LOCK
Kansas City at Oakland Chiefs by 20 LOCK
Minnesota at New England Patriots by 10 LOCK
San Francisco at Seattle Seahawks by 7 LOCK
L.A. Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers by 4
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles by 8 LOCK

posted by truthhurts at 09:12 PM on December 01

New Orleans (didn't get pick in, so we'll pick the loser/lol.)

Atlanta by 3

Denver by 7

LA Rams by 10 LOCK

Green Bay by 17 LOCK

Miami by 4

NY Giants by 3

Carolina by 7 LOCK

Jacksonville by 3

Houston by 6

Tennessee by 7

Kansas City by 23 LOCK

New England by 10

Seattle by 7 LOCK

Pittsburgh by 6

Philadelphia by 7 LOCK

posted by jagsnumberone at 05:19 AM on December 02

New Orleans by 8 <<< I botched that one, but at least I did not lock it

Atlanta by 6
Cincinnati by 5
L.A. Rams by 7
Green Bay by 8
Miami by 7
Chicago by 10
Carolina by 5
Indianapolis by 6
Houston by 7
Tennessee by 7
Kansas City by 8
New England by 8
Seattle by 8
Pittsburgh by 7
Washington by 6


posted by NoMich at 12:50 PM on December 02

Busy days Friday and yesterday. Medicare supplement insurance shopping and sign up, laundry to do, and Celtics game on Friday, then yesterday I was leading an Advent retreat at church. Half an hour to kickoff. Time to get moving.

A lack of tree nuts and acorns in Northern New England this year has caused the bears to be struggling. No struggles for the Midwestern version of Bears this week. Chicago by 9

Charge it, and send the Bills to South Florida. Miami by 3

Broncos haven't been particularly good on the road this year, but then they're at Cincinnati today. Denver by 7

Dammit, Browns, why do you break form every time I pick against you? Please don't do it again. Houston by 13 LOCK

From the desert to the frozen tundra. Cacti don't do well in Wisconsin. Green Bay by 14 LOCK

Have the Colts finally been broken to be a good ride? Ask Jaguars tomorrow. Jacksonville by 9

Panthers call away the boarding party, and we'll see how well the Buccaneers repel them. Carolina by 6

Are they the best team in football? If nothing else, they will have to adopt a basketball scoreboard for every game. Los Angeles (National Conference) by 21 LOCK

Birds of a feather flock together. Well, Ravens and Falcons are two entirely different species, and Falcons are very protective of their nesting grounds. Atlanta by 16 LOCK

Chiefs are in no mood to watch a video featuring elevator music. It won't matter. Kansas City by 17 LOCK

A team that was once named the Titans is playing a team now called the Titans, but was once the Oilers. What's that all about? Tennessee by 10

Color this one dull. Seattle by 14

The two coaches have been singing each other's praises all week. Don't believe a word of it. New England by 4

This one is a battle between two"very good" teams. The one I want to see win probably won't. Pittsburgh by 9

Native Americans try to add some feathers to their war bonnets. Philadelphia by 12

Made the deadline by about 7 minutes.

posted by Howard_T at 12:55 PM on December 02

Missed the early games....obviously.

Titans by 6 LOCK

KC by 8 LOCK

Vikings by 5 LOCK

Hawks by 12 LOCK

Pitt by 2 LOCK

Philly by 3 LOCK

posted by 9mmHeater at 02:47 PM on December 02

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