September 20, 2018

SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em Week 3: FitzMagic Stay Humble Edition: Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off tonight with the New York Jets visiting the feisty but winless Cleveland Browns. In the SportsFilter NFL Pick 'Em, bender leads with 149 (after a week-high score of 87) followed by tron7 at 140 and rcade and cixelsyd at 135. Make your picks.

How This Works

SportsFilter is running a season-long NFL Pick 'Em contest and awarding a prize to the season's winner: an official NFL Game Football ($99.99 value).

To play, pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 3 more points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 2 more points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game.

Examples:

Actual SpreadMargin Starts atMargin Ends at
111
435
759
11814
201426
So if you picked Miami by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:
OutcomeYour score
Miami by 208 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Miami by 105 points (winner only)
Miami by 1510 points (winner + nailed spread)
Miami by 50 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose any game as a stone cold lead pipe lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team doesn't win, you lose 10 points (even if you get the spread). You can make as many picks a lock as you like or pick no locks at all.

The Small Print

In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.

Hall of Champions

2016-17: Ufez Jones
2017-18: Tron7
2018-19: Tron7

This Week's Games

Green Bay at Chicago on NBC (Thursday)
L.A. Rams at Carolina on Fox (Sunday)
Washington at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday)
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets on CBS (Sunday)
Atlanta at Minnesota on Fox (Sunday)
Baltimore at Miami on CBS (Sunday)
Kansas City at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday)
Tennessee at Cleveland on CBS (Sunday)
Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers on CBS (Sunday)
Cincinnati at Seattle on CBS (Sunday)
San Francisco at Tampa Bay on Fox (Sunday)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas on Fox (Sunday)
Detroit at Arizona on Fox (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at New England on NBC (Sunday)
Houston at New Orleans on ESPN (Monday)
Denver at Oakland on ESPN (Monday)

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Thursday night's opener you can still choose the Sunday and Monday games.

posted by rcade to football at 02:25 PM - 33 comments

If rcade gets the pick 'em going, put me down for New York (American Conference) by 11 Please don't mess me up again, Dog Ass Jets.

posted by Howard_T at 10:02 AM on September 20

I'm going with Cleveland by 4, but please do not lock that one. Please

(hmmm...bold from previous reply not closed out yet)

posted by NoMich at 10:15 AM on September 20

Whatever my actual score is so far, I'm 2-0 on Thursday Night Lox (TM)--both inside the margin--so send a tray of bagels to Cleveland and give me

LOCK Cleveland by 7 LOCK

Let's open those victory fridges!

posted by bender at 10:40 AM on September 20

The very first Monday Night Football game was Jets vs. Browns in 1970. In Cleveland. On Sept 21st no less. I remember watching it as an impressionable high school boy.

I think Meredith and Cosell were both well oiled by game time (they had an able straight man in Keith Jackson). Meredith was doing OK until he discovered that the Browns had a receiver named Fair Hooker. That blew the lid off the sugar jar.

posted by beaverboard at 10:58 AM on September 20

SpoFi is now operating on Michael Avenatti autobold. I could get used to that...if I had the right clientele.

posted by beaverboard at 10:59 AM on September 20

Jets by 6

posted by truthhurts at 01:08 PM on September 20

Jets by 10

Not locked.
Weird.

posted by cixelsyd at 01:27 PM on September 20

Cleveland by 11 no lock.

posted by tommytrump at 01:34 PM on September 20

Jets by 3

Not locked!

Edit: I think I fixed it!

posted by grum@work at 02:09 PM on September 20

Scoring should be fixed on locked games.

posted by rcade at 02:35 PM on September 20

I'm not sure why you think KC is playing twice, but it's Tampa Bay in the Monday Night game.

N.Y. Jets by 3
Atlanta by 6
Kansas City by 3
Oakland by 7
Minnesota by 14
Philadelphia by 3
Green Bay by 13
Cincinnati by 6
Jacksonville by 9
Denver by 6
Houston by 7
L.A. Rams by 9
Chicago by 9
Dallas b3
New England by 14
Kansas City Tampa Bay by 7

posted by grum@work at 02:35 PM on September 20

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland on NFL (Thursday) Jets by 20
New Orleans at Atlanta on Fox (Sunday) Atlanta by 14
San Francisco at Kansas City on Fox (Sunday) KC by 14
Oakland at Miami on CBS (Sunday) Miami by 7
Buffalo at Minnesota on CBS (Sunday) Minnesota by 10
Indianapolis at Philadelphia on Fox (Sunday) Philly by 17
Green Bay at Washington on Fox (Sunday) Green Bay by 7
Cincinnati at Carolina on CBS (Sunday) Cincinnati by 10
Tennessee at Jacksonville on CBS (Sunday) JacksonVille by 13
Denver at Baltimore on CBS (Sunday) Denver by 14
N.Y. Giants at Houston on Fox (Sunday) Houston by 3
L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams on CBS (Sunday) Rams by 21
Chicago at Arizona on Fox (Sunday) Chicago by 7

Dallas at Seattle on Fox (Sunday)
New England at Detroit on NBC (Sunday)
Pittsburgh at Kansas City on ESPN (Monday)

posted by Boaz at 02:41 PM on September 20

Umm, pretty sure Jacksonville won (I locked them and got minus 10).

posted by jagsnumberone at 02:56 PM on September 20

Just noticed, it has the Jax/NE game wrong all together.

posted by jagsnumberone at 02:59 PM on September 20

Cleveland by 2

Atlanta by 6

Kansas City by 10

Miami by 3

Minnesota by 17 LOCK

Philadelphia by 10 LOCK

Green Bay by 4

Cincinnati by 3

Jacksonville by 10 LOCK DOWN Records (the revenge tour continues)

Denver by 5

Houston by 7

LA Rams by 10

Chicago by 4

Dallas by 3

New England by 7

Pittsburgh by 4

posted by jagsnumberone at 03:04 PM on September 20

Jacksonville result and Tampa Bay Monday night game fixed.

posted by rcade at 03:24 PM on September 20

Oh crap. The bold was my fault. I think I missed the closing > symbol. Don't let old people try anything sophisticated.

posted by Howard_T at 03:24 PM on September 20

From the Huddle, New York (American Conference) by 11 I will check twice to make sure I have not left everything on bold.

posted by Howard_T at 03:29 PM on September 20

rcade - please deduct 10 points from my score for last week. I posted my picks on Friday, which is why I picked Cincinnati by exactly 11 and then subsequently wrote "(kidding)." Sorry for screwing around there. (Although will note that you didn't double my picks for the lock.)

Cleveland by 3
New Orleans by 7
Kansas City by 14
Miami by 6
Minnesota by 20 LOCK
Philadelphia by 7
Green Bay by 4
Carolina by 7
Jacksonville by 14 LOCK
Baltimore by 10
Houston by 7
L.A. Rams by 6
Chicago by 7
Seattle by 10 LOCK
New England by 14 LOCK
Tampa Bay by 7

posted by holden at 03:34 PM on September 20

N.Y. Jets by 7

Atlanta by 4

Kansas City by 7

Miami by 4

Minnesota by 13 LOCK

Philadelphia by 7 LOCK

Green Bay by 7 LOCK

Cincinnati by 3

Jacksonville by 4

Denver by 6

Houston by 10 LOCK

L.A. Rams by 9 LOCK

Chicago by 8 LOCK

Dallas by 3

New England by 7 LOCK

Tampa Bay by 6

posted by cixelsyd at 03:48 PM on September 20

Cleveland by 7

Atlanta by 13

Kansas City by 10

Miami by 6

Minnesota by 17

Philadelphia by 8

Green Bay by 3

Cincinnati by 7

Jacksonville by 13

Baltimore by 6

Houston by 8

L.A. Rams by 13

Chicago by 14

Dallas by 12

New England by 17

Tampa Bay by 8

posted by tahoemoj at 04:29 PM on September 20

Cleveland by 3
Atlanta by 4
Kansas City by 7
Miami by 3
Minnesota by 14 - LOCK
Philadelphia by 6
Green Bay by 3
Carolina by 6
Jacksonville by 7 - LOCK
Denver by 3
Houston by 7
L.A. Rams by 10 - LOCK
Chicago by 3
Seattle by 4
New England by 6
Pittsburgh by 6

posted by tron7 at 04:47 PM on September 20

(Although will note that you didn't double my picks for the lock.)

I thought you were kidding about the lock, not about the entire pick. I will remove that pick.

posted by rcade at 05:26 PM on September 20

Cleveland by 7
New Orleans by 3
Kansas City by 7 <-- lock
Miami by 3
Minnesota by 13 <-- lock
Philadelphia by 7 <-- lock
Green Bay by 3
Cincinnati by 3
Jacksonville by 4
Baltimore by 3
Houston by 7 <-- lock
L.A. Rams by 7
Arizona by 3
Seattle by 6
New England by 7
Pittsburgh by 3

posted by rcade at 05:27 PM on September 20

To late for Thursday

Atlanta by 6

Kansas City by 28 (LOCK)

Miami by 3

Minnesota by 21 (LOCK)

Philadelphia by 17 (LOCK)

Green Bay by 3

Carolina by 7

Jacksonville by 12 (LOCK)

Baltimore by 4

Houston by 3

L.A.Rams by 8

Chicago by 10

Seattle by 6

New England by 17 (LOCK). My Lions SUCK.

Tampa Bay by 3

posted by ic23b at 10:05 PM on September 20

LOCK Cleveland by 7 LOCK
Atlanta by 6
LOCK Kansas City by 10 LOCK
Miami by 3
LOCK Minnesota by 17 LOCK
Indianapolis by 3
Green Bay by 4
Carolina by 7
Jacksonville by 7
Baltimore by 2
LOCK Houston by 11 LOCK
L.A. Rams by 4
Chicago by 3
Dallas by 6
New England by 5
LOCK Tampa Bay by 12 LOCK

posted by bender at 10:01 AM on September 21

We are in Denver for the annual conference of the Vergers Guild of the Episcopal Church. Today was the business meeting, so we have the afternoon to ourselves. If you have ever been to Denver, you know what a hidden gem it is. If you get the chance, visit.

Here are the rest of my picks. I can't believe I let the dog-ass Jets fool me again. You just can't trust them.

My Uber driver to the hotel in Denver is a Saints fan. Good enough for me. New Orleans by 10

Jimmy G. isn't bad, but Chiefs are going well. Kansas City by 8

Gruden's Grinders get grounded Miami by 12

Bills are useful only on aquatic birds. Minnesota by 18 LOCK

The Ponies fooled me last week, but the big birds will prevail. Philadelphia by 17 LOCK

The Packers do not go to DC to drain the swamp, just to play football. Green Bay by 11

When 2 cats fight, the home cat wins. Carolina by 10

Titans aren't big enough. Jacksonville by 9

I'm here in Denver, but the Broncos are not. Baltimore by 6

Houston by 3

The Los Angeles derby. National Conference by 10

Dallas by 7

Pupil against the teacher. New England by 16 LOCK

The steel begins to corrode. Tampa Bay by 17 LOCK

Time to get dressed for the cocktail hour and banquet.

posted by Howard_T at 07:35 PM on September 22

New Orleans at Atlanta Falcons by 7
San Francisco at Kansas City Chiefs by 10 LOCK
Oakland at Miami Dolphins by 10
Buffalo at Minnesota Vikings by 14 LOCK
Indianapolis at Philadelphia Eagles by 10 LOCK
Green Bay at Washington Packers by 17
Cincinnati at Carolina Panthers by 10
Tennessee at Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 LOCK
Denver at Baltimore Ravens by 7
N.Y. Giants at Houston Giants by 10
L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams Rams by 7 LOCK
Chicago at Arizona Bears by 3
Dallas at Seattle Seahawks by 3
New England at Detroit Patriots by 10 LOCK
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay Steelers by 7

posted by truthhurts at 07:53 PM on September 22

Philly by 12 LOCK

Bengals by 4

Jags by 3

Falcons by 6

Broncos by 2

Texans by 13 LOCK

Miami by 3

Packers by 4

Vikings by 7 Lock

KC by 11 LOCK

Rams by 9 Lock

Cards by 4

Cowgirls by 5

Pats by 1

Bucs by 4

posted by 9mmHeater at 09:45 PM on September 22

Atlanta by 6

San Francisco by 5

Miami by 2

Minnesota by 17

Philadelphia by 7

Green Bay by 7

Cincinnati by 5

Jacksonville by 18

Denver by 1

Houston by 10

L.A. Chargers by 4

Chicago by 1

Seattle by 8

New England by 15

Tampa Bay by 21

posted by tommytrump at 09:55 AM on September 23

Cleveland by 4 (see above)

Atlanta by 6
Kansas City by 8
Oakland at Miami
Minnesota by 12
Philadelphia by 6
Washington by 4
Cincinnati by 4
Jacksonville by 6
Denver by 4
Houston by 8
L.A. Rams by 7
Chicago by 6
Seattle by 12
New England by 12
Tampa Bay by 6

posted by NoMich at 10:40 AM on September 23

Guess I missed the boat this week. I'll take the Steelers by 7 (lock)

posted by Goyoucolts at 12:42 AM on September 24

I'll take the Steelers by 7 (lock)

And just like that, Goyoucolts wins the week!

posted by tahoemoj at 12:05 PM on September 25

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