- 08:25 PM
- 01/09/09
| Name: | Hal Incandenza |
|---|---|
| Location: | Seattle, WA |
| Gender: | Male |
| Member since: | August 23, 2002 |
| Last visit: | October 14, 2008 |
Hal Incandenza has posted 27 links and 832 comments to SportsFilter and 16 links and 124 comments to the Locker Room.
Barry Bonds offers to play for free.:
My opinion on Bonds is no secret, however I noticed this tidbit in the paper yesterday and have been meaning to post about it. Barry Bonds' agent has offered his services to all 30 teams, at a pro-rated salary of the league minimum (at this point, about $200,000 total), even offering to play for free by donating that salary to buying tickets for the game; his trial date isn't until next March, so he would not be prevented from playing.
Despite this, apparently Barry's agent has received no interest, bolstering claims that the league is colluding to prevent him being hired.
posted by Hal Incandenza to baseball at 09:32 PM on June 27 - 78 comments
Seattle Mariners (finally) fire GM Bill Bavasi.: For weeks the indisputable worst team in the majors, the $117M Seattle Mariners have finally made a major personnel change by firing General Manager Bill Bavasi today. Many in the media predicted such a shakeup should the Washington Nationals, who came into Seattle with worst record in the NL, complete the sweep of the Mariners in Seattle this weekend.
In his 5 years as Seattle GM including 2008, Bill Bavasi guided the Mariners to a last-place finish in every single year but 2007, where the 88-74 Mariners finished 2nd. The fervent Mariner blog community, who have demanded front office firings for a long time now, are already advocating for his replacement.
posted by Hal Incandenza to baseball at 08:44 PM on June 16 - 5 comments
Sportsfilter Technology Refresh?:
Sportsfilter was founded back in 2002 using a mimic of the Metafilter site code as I understand it- back then, sports posts seemed too "newsfilter-y" back when that was actually frowned upon at Metafilter, and this site was spun up as a dedicated place for that kind of content.
In the intervening years, Metafilter has added a number of features- big and small- that make that site very functional and usable. I'm curious if there is any possibility of having a "technology refresh", in which Sportsfilter gets an update of some of the site code to enable things like live preview, tagging, favoriting, etc.
posted by Hal Incandenza to feature requests at 12:04 PM on June 09 - 48 comments
Patriots advance to their 4th Superbowl in 7 years. : Despite his second worst QB rating of the season, Tom Brady and the Patriots advance to the Superbowl thanks to a second half running game and a defense that held the Chargers to only 4 field goals on the afternoon. The Patriots take their 17-1 unprecedented 18-0 record to Arizona in two weeks, facing the Ravens winner of the Packers/Giants game, in the hopes of completing a truly historic season.
posted by Hal Incandenza to football at 05:25 PM on January 20 - 131 comments
Seattle edges Dallas in a wild, wild 4th quarter:
One of the most nail-biting fourth quarters I've ever seen! Dallas looked poised to waltz into the end zone for an easy 2 or 6 point win in the final two minutes of the game, until an incredible goal line stop by Tatupu and an improbable drop of a FG snap led to a wild finish to Saturday's football action.
posted by Hal Incandenza to football at 10:28 PM on January 06 - 75 comments
Right- some writers say CC took risks pushing his body all during his time on the Brewers since he is universally seen as a "rent-a-player" (perhaps unfairly; Milwaukee isn't Selig's team anymore, so they might loosen the purse strings to keep him- they've actually got a good nucleus there and could be an Oakland-style small-market success story if they play things correctly), but those risks will pay off huge for Sabathia. He will be hands down the most desired free agent this off-season, with every team looking to improve their stock seeing Sabathia as the #1 anchor of their staff. He's a proven ace pitcher, innings eater, healthy, and willing to take the ball on any given day.
I'm not sure if Boston will be in the hunt; between Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, they already have 3 bona fide #1 or at least #2 type pitchers, and a 4th would be overkill; the Boston farm system is too deep to spend greatly on another pitcher no matter how good. They'd be better spending that money to retain their soon-to-be-very-expensive right-side of the infield in Pedroia and Youkilis. Those two guys, with Mauer's 0-3 today in the Twins' failed attempt to make the playoffs, might end up being the #1 and #2 MVP vote getters.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 11:21 PM on September 30
I'm actually happy about this. Other than the Red Sox- well, and to a certain extent the Cubs- I didn't have any favorites this year. It's nice to see teams make it who don't do so as as regular event; Milwaukee is long overdue for some October excitement. And while I think CC for Cy is a long shot having only half a season with guys like Webb and Lincecum in the mix, the guy pitched as good as a man can pitch, for Milwaukee: he was the rare trading deadline (or near deadline) pitching acquisition who was completely worth it. He was the singular reason they made the playoffs, and the bad-ass mo'fo' is even saying he can pitch on 3 days in the playoffs!
Even if he doesn't win a Cy Young, the Sabathia Sweepstakes this fall is going to be one enriching affair for the dude: turns out that playing your heart out and pitching the hell out of the ball works better than contract-year games. I'd sure like to see the Dodgers bounced quickly so a certain dreadlocked slugger better understood this dynamic.... :)
posted by Hal Incandenza at 05:21 AM on September 30
Yeah, utterly demolishing the world record by an additional .14 would have been far more profitable than breaking it periodically over the next months or years of far, far less publicized events than the Olympics. If he breaks his own record down the road, which seems likely as his starts improve, he'll merit a little blurb on the evening news that day, and no more.
It's a shame he didn't go all out, but I don't think he slowed up intentionally, except in the sense he glanced over and realized he was going to win by a huge amount and started celebrating prematurely. He only broke the world record by a few hundredths of a second; he couldn't have the ability to know exactly how much he was slowing up and edge in just under the WR as an intentional act, since he would be as likely to not even break the WR doing that.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 06:39 PM on September 17
Wait, what's the problem? We aren't 1930's Germany (yet) so it's hardly a crime to not stand for or acknowledge the Pledge of Allegiance. If anything, it's admirable to dismiss it- shows more than unthinking love of country.
And the only other things mentioned in that article include, heavens to Betsy, acknowledging the occasional pot smoking and a speeding incident. Speeding's not a huge deal, although 94 in a 55 is pretty irresponsible, but not exactly like running a dogfighting ring or getting filthy rich off the exploitation of Indonesian sweatshop laborers and inner-city crime and desperation like Michael Jordan and every other Nike/Reebok/et al endorser who does nothing to question the business model that generates their wealth. The pot thing needs to be said by everyone who smokes pot, because our drug laws are horrific, racist, irrational, and destroying the infrastructure of our society. Oh, and he apparently had a birthday party despite having lost in a playoff game. What, he shouldn't celebrate his own birthday? If I have a shitty day at work on my own birthday, I'll enjoy having a party to take the edge off!
So... everything I read in that article says Josh Howard has a better head on his shoulders than say Lebron James, who I remember as much for his dissing of Stephon Marbury's more socially-conscious shoes than for anything he does on the court.
But of course ESPN, knee jerk Americans, and the media as a whole like to make fire out of a lot of empty smoke. I mean, jknemo says "shut up and play". Apparently expressing your opinions to your friends is verboten if you're... an... athlete. I don't quite follow that. Jknemo is a whatever-he-is, and he's expressing his opinion here. Hey jknemo, just shut up and do whatever-it-is-you-do. That explains why you are a whatever-it-is-your- occupation-is and not a brain surgeon.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 06:36 PM on September 17
Watched the last 3 innings on MLB.tv; glad I bought that final month deal they had for the MLB.tv premium. The Cubs are basically a lock for the playoffs, so this is a feel-good win that might help them feel like they've got losing out of their system and are ready to hit the playoffs with a full head of all-cylinders-hitting momentum. Lilly pitched a beauty today as a follow-up.
I still say the Red Sox win the World Series, but if they lose the only team I'd be marginally okay losing to would be the Cubs.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 01:34 AM on September 16
It's an odd move, though, because with 12 games left and tied for the wild card- an absolute dead heat- you don't necessarily want to lose even one game from "uncertainty". The reality is that managers rarely have an impact on the win-loss record; I've heard it estimated by sabermetricians that the total impact is on the order of 2-4 games, for a season. The impact of axing Yost for 12 games? Non-existent. It's unlikely Yost makes any unconventional moves in the last 12 games, so axing him serves no in-game purpose; Sveum will pretty much make the exact same moves Yost would have. The manager can't make the hitters hit (the last two Sabathia starts were no-decisions even though they were quality starts); Sveum is going to make the same lineup and it'll rest in the playerss hands.
If the owners think that having Sveum take over will somehow light a fire with Milwaukee's offense, then maybe there's reason to do this, but why would they think that? If anything, it could have the opposite effect: they're in the heat of a playoff race and suddenly the manager is gone?! It's an odd move because you are almost certainly not going to gain anything with this move, this late yet could risk destabilizing your players, and at present Milwaukee can not afford to lose even one single game from discontented or confused players.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 01:31 AM on September 16
The suckiest part is how this would be more palatable if they'd just not had that last 60 seconds against the Giants in the Superbowl; having a tidy 19-0 would make season-ending injuries, if that is the case, more easy to digest. It's like how with 2004 and then 2007, I'd not be sad if the Sox don't win the World Series this year: that amazing 2004 run and improbable victory was so great, who cares about the WS for a long time? It's nice, but not as critical. Had the Patriots gone 19-0, it'd have been like Roy Hobbs' last homer, where you don't mind if his career ends and he just plays catch in some Iowa field for the rest of his life.
Instead, it's like a historic moment got knocked off the rails somehow, and the Patriots and the NFL seem to have come from some weird alternate dimension as reality gets a bit twisted a la "Sound of Thunder".
And yes, I'm sure there's plenty of karma-cunts out there wanting to pounce on how NE got "what they deserved" for... running their franchise well and succeeding despite a tight salary cap that applies to every team in the league.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 06:48 AM on September 08
bdaddy: The question is...if either is possible, why do you automatically assume the other is more credible?First, it turns out there is a "no movement" rule that has been in place for a while. Which is complete bullshit, but it lends credence to his suggestion the police enforced this rule... too aggressively. If there was no such rule, it'd be harder to believe he ran across two jack-booted thugs who decided to attack him for his vague Frenchness.
Second, I think the police are far more likely to lie because they have more to lose: this guy, if the police are telling the truth, has no reason to lie and make a big to-do if all he got was ejected. If the cops are telling the truth, why did this guy even make this into a news item? Lots of people get ejected from stadiums, they usually just quietly leave, or pay a fine depending on their particular offense.
Meaning, it's easier to believe the cops would make up an embellishment after the fact in the hopes that their entirely believable fuck up would not become an ACLU lawsuit, than that some random schmoe would concoct this story out of thin air for no reason, on a matter that was dead until he revived it. If this Bradford Campeau-Laurion was simply ejected, then he'd probably let the matter drop and there's no story there. He has no incentive to manufacture a story as he is not wronged beyond being ejected- if he was ejected for being drunk. It's far less likely he invents a story out of whole cloth when the most likely reaction if he was drunk and disorderly is to simply laugh about it as an anecdote his friends share: "Aw, man, you shoulda seen Brad at the friggin' Yanks game, man. He got SOOO wasted, the cops kicked him out during God Bless America, man- it was friggin' hilarious!!!!"
Whereas, if his story is true, and the cops as they are fond of doing abuse their power, internalize an us/them mentality, and kick out someone for being "un-American"... well, they have all the incentive in the world to make up that he was drunk, and loud, etc. Police do this all the time with protesters or other "undesirables"; filming a cop breaking the law becomes "interfering with the police". Asking a question becomes "resisting arrest". All cops are presumed assholes until proven innocent.
Do you see the disparity there? He has no likely reason to perpetuate a dead matter- pay a fine, tell the story to your friends- while the NYPD has a very clear reason to say that oh, no, that's not what happened.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 06:46 PM on September 03
Hm- that's good thinking, ursus. They should test these bats thoroughly- I like the idea that they are less likely to shatter, and probably last longer/use less wood. If the sweet spot is larger, raise the mound a couple of inches to help compensate.
I believe part of the reason for the maple bats' prevalence is precisely because their characteristics include a greater coefficient of restitution, and I guess a larger sweet spot. However, I've said before that from my understanding of the physics of hitting, the hitters would actually get better performance, and lessen the breaking of the bats, by using wider handles. They should consider using wider handled bats- adding a clause to the rules that maple bats can't have a handle thinner than N centimeters in diameter- if that would accomplish the same thing as experimenting with new bats, or outlawing maple altogether.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 05:04 PM on August 28
I'm intrigued by this, because MLB has had a long, long standing rule that bats must be turned on a lathe from a single piece of wood. If they allow this kind of bat- and if it passes a rigorous testing system and proves to be safer, why not- that would be one of the most significant equipment changes in the game's history. It also would be environmentally more sound: turning out 12 much thinner pieces of wood is easier than getting the lumber thick enough to turn a single bat.
Dill said his bats also have a slightly larger sweet spot but will still preserve the integrity of the game because the ball doesn't travel farther off them than regular bats.It may prove to be somewhat critical that the bat has a larger sweet spot; it's disingenuous for the inventor to say that it's okay because the ball doesn't travel any further than with a regular bat. The way hitting works, it's the rule and not the exception that the ball is hit away from the optimal sweet spot. A larger sweet spot = more swings that put the ball in play with a "good" contact, and thus if a bat like this gets used regularly and is as described, we could see an offensive explosion as batting averages and even power numbers go back up.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 05:59 AM on August 28
I'm curious how that 40mph compares to other fireballers at different ages. I know the LLWS seems to have a top speed of ~70mph at 13/14, so if your 13 year old is hurling it 69-70mph, he's probably going to get drafted if he works on his form and control, and avoids injury from trying to force the curveball too early, etc.
So if 90+mph in high school is "massive outlier, possible draft pick", and 70mph at 13 is "probably going to be hitting 90+ when he's in high school"... where does 40mph at age 9 match? Because unless that's way ahead of the curve... I don't see the fuss. 40mph is pretty damn slow- it's about the slowest speed you'll find in the batting cages outside of the slo-pitch softball cage. I guess on 9 year olds, thats on the fast side, but not impossibly so, at least from what I'd guess. But I don't know: that's why I'm curious how fast people typically throw at that age; the leagues sounds like an instructional league, where usually the coaches throw or they hit off a tee. If they're beyond that... what's the problem, exactly?
Jericho's coach and parents say the boy is being unfairly targeted because he turned down an invitation to join the defending league champion, which is sponsored by an employer of one of the league's administrators.Well, okay, this is the part I don't understand. If he's that good, shouldn't the parents love to have him move up to the next level a couple of years early? It's almost like they'd rather he stay in the instructional leagues and completely dominate than to face kids 2 years older and seem more ordinary, statistically. I think pretty much when they were young, all those future major-leaguers destroyed every level they played at and were moved up ahead of schedule, playing among kids who were hitting puberty while they were still playing with Legos and Transformers. Why do the parents seemingly resist this for their own kid, when the league even said "He can play, but he should move to a harder league."?
posted by Hal Incandenza at 05:27 AM on August 26
Howard_T: What a manager would have to know is the next batter's performance against the pitcher in the game at that pointThat would be like basing my next move in blackjack not on the time-tested odds, but on how the last three hands played out. In any case, Byrd's line against Wheeler in 10PA: .444/.500/.778/1.278. The only way this move works is if Byrd was such a poor hitter that he basically was an automatic out- which he isn't.
Anyway you cut it, it was a poor move made either through faulty reasoning, or for PR reasons. Maddon might have thought "Last thing I want is for the Mighty Josh Hamilton to tie the game with a Sportscenter-made video clip". Even though the odds of that happening were far less than Hamilton simply popping or grounding out to end the game, and even a GS only ties it, and TB has the better bullpen.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 02:41 PM on August 20
bender: yeah, you can get those at ESPN as a player's split stats, for both Byrd and for Hamilton.
The truth is, their splits are wildly different, but also for relatively small sample sizes; the bases loaded stat is about 10 and 12 at-bats for each of them, and thus not really meaningful.
With two outs, you only have to get either Hamilton or Byrd to make an out; if you don't face a batter after Byrd, at worst you are tied, and anything short of a homerun from Hamilton has the Rays winning 7-6 or better. There's a 37% chance Hamilton doesn't make an out, and a 38% Byrd doesn't make an out; there's only a 14% chance they both reach base safely, where Byrd becomes the wining run.
Odds of Hamilton ending the game by making an out: 63%Odds of either Hamilton or Byrd ending the inning by making an out: 86%Odds of Hamilton hitting a homerun: 5%Odds of Byrd hitting at least a double with a speedy Hamilton on 1st potentially coming around to score the tying run: 9%That's pretty simple. If Byrd gets any kind of hit, it's 7-6; any extra base hit probably scores the tying run. Walking Hamilton means you have doubled the chances that the Rangers will tie the game on one swing, with the added danger that the winning run is now on 2nd or 3rd.
YYM:I can understand what you're saying Hal but in this situation the move worked. It may not work every single time it is tried, but this has only happened five times since 1900.There's a reason it's only happened 5 times; most managers know it's a terrifically poor move. If this were a regular occurrence, the numbers would showcase how bad a move this is. And generally speaking, the test of how smart a managerial move can be boiled down to "If every game boiled down to this move, how would it affect our winning percentage?".
posted by Hal Incandenza at 02:24 PM on August 20
Short article, but good. It's one of those things those of us in the US and those handful of hyper-dominant nations can't comprehend: what it must be like to really rally behind your Olympic heroes, and the pride that comes with it.
We in the US are so jaded, we need a guy to win 8 friggin' Gold medals in one Olympics to even really pay attention; but no American will know what it's like to watch with your countrymen in a crowded room as Usain Bolt races for a world record Gold in the 100M, the first time your country has ever had a 100M Gold. Truth is, that's more what the Olympics is about: a peaceful way for people to gain national pride and compete, without bloodshed or extremism.
posted by Hal Incandenza at 01:36 PM on August 20
The Price is Right!
Yeah, I didn't appreciate it on the real-time view, but on the repeated slo-mo shots you can really see that incredibly ease he just twists back and slaps down the puck, like he's practiced that move a thousand times. As beaverboard says, there's no desperation or flailing, it's just a nice graceful move.
Pretty damn impressive! Like the call, too- "it's not even the year yet!". :)