Recent Comments by hincandenza

Red Sox owner Tom Werner has become a dark horse candidate to be baseball's next commissioner

Yeah, I can appreciate your rant, but I think your fears are unfounded.

First, a poo-flinging monkey would be an improvement over Selig, so I don't think Werner would be that bad. Second, while Werner might have done some things as Sox owner you don't approve of- and if there's one thing sabermetrics should teach us, it's that results-based assessment is risky- he did bring not one, not two, but three World Series trophies to Boston in the span of 10 years, and kept that lovely little bandbox of a park full for hundreds of games in a row. Third, if he became commissioner, it's not like he'd have the authority, or desire, to remake every team in his own image.

The TV revenue thing is meaningful if he'd oppose that, since I do believe the ideal end state (or near end state) for leagues like MLB is to have parity revenue sharing and a more rotisserie like model, where players are paid for what they do out of a general league pool that is based on a percentage of total revenue (to some extent, I believe this is what the NBA does; every team has a salary cap based on something like 58% of total revenue, and there's revenue sharing to keep it fairly balanced). But I also think he'd be less likely to do things like call a "tie" in an All-Star game. So, you know, win some, lose some...

posted by hincandenza at 08:54 PM on August 11

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle

I hope them tweeting that picture is not what pushed him over the edge.

oh god, I'm so sorry

posted by hincandenza at 08:39 PM on August 11

Tony Stewart Kills Driver in Dirt-Track Race

And minutes later, I've found this (certainly more informed than I) breakdown on reddit of why this is almost certainly a complete accident.

Granted, they use the same video that had me and most of us here convinced it was at least partially intentional, but they do explain the "rev" sound as likely unrelated and the conditions such that even an honest swerve could result in this outcome if Stewart didn't see him until the last second. So I'm glad I did express reservations about my own thiughts, and why a thorough and impartial investigation with more evidence is necessary and may fully exonerate Stewart. Plus, culture of the sport to point at the car or no, Ward should not have been walking into oncoming traffic and bears at least some responsibility in his own death.

posted by hincandenza at 02:00 AM on August 11

Tony Stewart Kills Driver in Dirt-Track Race

Just an fyi, but the main link goes to a baseball game recap.

Watching this single video, while I'm not ready to convict in the court of a public opinion- much less a court of law- it looks to me like what happened was BoKnows B) conjecture: Stewart was pissed, and tried to show up the kid with a little rev and close shave... and miscalculated. It's unlikely to be a *complete* accident, since the other drivers were going slow and giving room what with the caution flag, and Stewart could easily, with his skills, given wide berth such that a collision was well-nigh impossible. Rather, this looks like if an Olympic-level sharpshooter decided to play William Tell with someone and oops, they just shot a person in the head. Or perhaps an apter comparison would be a pitcher throwing a brushback pitch at chin/head level, and that two inch difference from 60 feet away is the difference between "establishing the strike zone" and hospitalizing someone. Which is why headhunters get tossed pretty quickly if the ump thinks they were throwing the beanball on purpose. And why the original move- running him into the wall by squeezing him- seems a rough but fair approach, like a brushback pitch at the chest level... but not what happened next.

Being great at something doesn't mean you're infallible, so this looks like Stewart got cute in the heat of the moment- with fatal consequences. In that one second when he sees Ward approaching his car on what looks like the next lap, angrily pointing, I suspect Stewart (based on zero ironclad evidence whatsoever) thought to make the kid jump back and "know his place". And he was off... by just a few inches.

I hope plenty of other video surfaces so we can get other angles (or rather, that investigators can watch them since I certainly don't want or need to see more), but to my untrained eye it looks like he tried to scare him and with Ward in motion, the near-miss became a literally correct term.

Which lessens but doesn't not erase legal culpability; not murder, but some level of manslaughter.

It is entirely plausible that an exculpatory video emerges that shows us a clearer, unambiguous accident or even Ward walking *into* the straight line path of Stewart's car, while Stewart attempts to swerve away at the last second and thus, wholly accidentally, fishtails him. Barring that, I can't see how Stewart walks from this with no repercussions; at minimum I suspect a heavy civil suit will correct whatever the law fails to address.

posted by hincandenza at 01:46 AM on August 11

Holy Sidd Finch! Minnesota Twins Sign Unknown with 100-Mph Fastball

The Twins knew about Poulson from his recent season with Academy of Art University, where he had an 8.38 ERA for the San Francisco school. [...] Poulson went 0-0 with a high ERA in 14 appearances and 19 1-3 innings for Academy of Art this season. He struck out 24, walked 24 and opponents hit .189 against him.
He's 24, never been drafted, has as many walks as strikeouts with a sky-high ERA... for an art school. Either this guy is more Dalkowski than Finch, or they accidentally had the radar gun on kilometers again when they scouted him.

In all seriousness, I hope it works out for him; he sounds like a physical specimen, and if they teach him to increase his accuracy by taking a few mph off the ball, he could make it; and who wouldn't root for a story about a young guy from nowhere making it to the bigs?

posted by hincandenza at 05:51 PM on July 30

Pitcher Freaks Out Because of Bunt in 2-Run Game

Over the next couple of seasons? I... honestly don't know if there is or not. How... how did you know that?!?

Seriously, though, when someone says "unwritten rules", whatever follows is just hot air. And as noted by DrJohnEvans, a shift is a risk that assumes a hitter can't reliably put it in a different location than their trend data suggests- so if you're wrong, then they reach first. Plus, 5th inning of a 2-0 game? Shit, I think bunting in a no-hitter with two outs in the 9th of a 9-0 laugher is totally legit, much less the 5th inning of a 2-0 game!

But the real worry for Texas is that when people start resorting to rules lawyering, it means they've completely beaten themselves already. Which would probably play some part in explaining why Texas has the worst record in the league.

posted by hincandenza at 11:56 PM on July 20

SportsFilter: The Friday Huddle

Hey, how about that Clayton Kershaw, eh?

posted by hincandenza at 07:45 PM on June 20

SportsFilter: The Sunday Huddle

Wow, that's pretty damned blatant. And the original tag, I see nothing wrong with it; he fell because he was off-balance and backpedaling (out of the baseline, no less), not because Donaldson gave him some extra-forceful, unwarranted tag. That looked like a good, clean, no doubt and get the out type tag.

That Machado would then apparently milk that anger for three games is... wow. Unsurprising that Showalter would have Donaldson thrown at, but that's one of those B.S. "unwritten rules" that the old fogies love to wax poetically about, I guess.

Is there video of his hitting the catcher out there? Seems like that would be reason to get tossed/suspended right there. I found only this one, which has only the second swing in replay. He was smirking, but the swing itself... I can't say from that one replay (other than making an assumption that if it happened two pitches in a row, it has to be on purpose) that it looked definitely intentional... at least not to my eyes.

I disagree with the announcers in that video clip you posted grum; I don't think the pitcher was thrown for the pitch before, but because in Machado's slim defense, the pitch where he threw his bat was also being thrown way inside, which sure looks like Abad was trying to hit him twice. Still doesn't excuse the bat tossing at all, but does make it more clear why the umpires tossed Machado and Abad (the pitcher). It's pretty long-standing that if the ump sees you throw two fairly blatant attempts to hit a batter in a row, they'll likely toss you.

But yeah, the histrionics from Machado, the flung bat (which not only was a punk move... he was way off the freakin' mark, given that it appears to be intentional for the reasons grum mentioned- eye focus, late timing, etc- and yet he was staring down the pitcher, not Donaldson), these alone ought to get him a hefty suspension of ~5 games I'd hope.

posted by hincandenza at 10:08 PM on June 08

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

More Jon Bois' EA Sports "journalism" goodness (via Metafilter), on the impending death of basketball .

posted by hincandenza at 04:04 PM on June 03

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

This local man learned this one weird trick to stay young. Vampires hate him!

posted by hincandenza at 01:12 PM on May 09

Albert Pujols Hits 499th, 500th Homer

Well, yeah, but... Albert Pujols being a great hitter wasn't exactly a hotly debated topic on this site. :)

posted by hincandenza at 05:28 AM on April 24

Brewers' Maldanado Knocks Cover Off the Ball

Heh, yeah it was a given that would come up. :)

posted by hincandenza at 06:49 PM on April 19

Chris Resop - The Most Interesting Reliever in the World.

There already is one. It's shaped like Chris Resop.

posted by hincandenza at 01:57 PM on April 18

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

ah, that's a really good point, deflated. I've long thought that analysis of pitch motion etc- even during warmups- would tell you when a pitcher is more likely to be lit up, and an adventurous team would a) do last minute rotation adjustments when their intel says a pitcher will suck, and b) start looking for patterns to correlate success and failure. Temperature? Diet? Humidity? Sleep cycles? Stress? Something leads a pitcher to be more or less effective night over night. It was more obvious for knucklers, when temperature differences or indoor/outdoor stadiums could reliably predict success, but it still applies for all other pitchers, who are not consciously aware why today their splitter is not dropping as much.

And as the article on the new system hints, we might be entering a golden age of defensive metrics, picking up things like average distance to a ball in play (the positioning instincts) along with speed, efficiency of motion, etc, all to lead to better defensive judgment than the "pasta diving Jeter" gut reactions of the past.

posted by hincandenza at 01:54 AM on March 19

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

Right, although for all we know part of that $500,000 is the software/contract for expertise in running the system. A typical MLB team is going to have an IT department... but probably not one that has any real expertise in creating, configuring, and running distributed clusters on commodity hardware, or running ML algorithms.

I mean, I figure I could- after quite a few months- build just such a system, having at least some familiarity with Hadoop et al and some open source ML packages. But there'd be a ton of work to customize it to baseball and baseball stats, then test it with the data inputs (even if just cleaning and inputting several years of pitchFX data). I'd go slower working alone, and if I brought in a couple of dev friends to help out, that $500K goes quickly in terms of salary + hardware.

For a deep-pocketed team, getting something that's a turnkey solution for barely more than a single league-minimum salary is still a good deal, and in this case, as with business computing purchases, the CYA and outsourced expertise is worth the extra money spent, compared to hoping you can find someone to bring in-house to do the work for you.

Maybe they're paying for something turnkey enough that their existing IT staff can then just dump in new pitchFX data regularly, as well as learn how to construct certain types of queries that they can then extend to common analysis operations. On the hopefully rare occasions that things go completely cockeyed beyond the existing maintenance contract, you pay Cray a relative pittance for support.

All that aside, I think it's fantastic to see a team (I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Red Sox, as they've been in the statistical and technological forefront for a decade) go to this next level. Which means we'll see other teams get there soon enough, although MLB may still have some restrictions on technology allowed in the dugout. If this provides a huge advantage, we might instead see a rule passed by the owners disallowing real-time analysis and feedback directly to the players (via signals).

posted by hincandenza at 09:57 PM on March 18

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

I'm kind of surprised the supercomputer-for-real-time-analysis thing hasn't occurred earlier; I've been pretty vocal around here (and elsewhere) in the past, wondering when a tech savvy team would basically start doing analysis in-game, even for things like detecting patterns in a pitcher/catcher batter that they could signal to their hitters for.

An aside: I'm not super familiar with all the conceits of ML, but in general it is the case that we behave much more predictably than we imagine. If I recall, the rochambeau simulator that was the MF post I linked in the last paragraph was frighteningly good: it's hard not to imagine that if fed a huge historical set of data- even the last few years- of pitchFX pitches and outcomes, it could find trends that could be hugely impactful. Especially as things go south; the pitcher would get frazzled and shake off the catcher, the catcher and pitcher would try to fool you- but in the process be even more predictable (like in RPS when you keep throwing out one option, because you'd never do paper 4 times in a row!).

You glance over, the manager gives you a set of signals that basically say "It's a 2-1 count, and there's an 82% chance the next pitch is a fastball lower in; sit dead red on that, and try to inside-out it the other way". Maybe it's a curve or slider this time, but over the course of a game/season each player could see meaningful- say even 3-5%- benefit in their batting average/OBP. Which... if a team BA goes up 30 points, they'd basically worst-to-first their entire offense.

posted by hincandenza at 02:33 PM on March 18

SportsFilter: The Friday Huddle

If they chose to bench him, I'm pretty sure there's mutual clauses et al that let a player become a free agent- I'd be shocked if neither the most recent bargaining agreement nor ARods contract gave him an out of some kind if the Yankees did that; I seem to recall hearing about a former All-Star player exercise that right when he was benched by his team (maybe Mo Vaughn?). At worst, I'd imagine the rules say he'd be free to find another team to play for where the Yankees would be on the hook for the difference in pay for the new team.

They did the same thing to Bonds: he offered to play at league minimum and then donate that salary to local charities, and STILL had zero calls (hence collusion being suspected). ARod has already shown a willingness to sue where Bonds didn't, and I'd think if no team picked up a player of hia caliber, he'd sue MLB in a heartbeat.

No matter what, the Yankees have to pay ARod $60M for those last two years, so why not play him if he's at least mediocre?

posted by hincandenza at 04:48 PM on February 28

SportsFilter: The Friday Huddle

Actually, the Yankees almost certainly won't have the choice; most of these contracts- and the player's union, which would surely back even ARod on this- have clauses that would prevent a team from benching or sending him to AAA if he's healthy and producing at the plate (which for all the flack he gets, even in the current day he's a well above average player).

posted by hincandenza at 04:31 PM on February 28

SportsFilter: The Friday Huddle

Yeah, exactly- the Yankees would love to dump him, but even they can't engineer another threadbare excuse to keep him off the roster. If he only has to sit one year, I think he's very capable- and very willing- to come back and play at least that one more season where he should easily rack up 61 hits, 31 RBI, and 7 HR in maybe half a season, even at his new plateau. Heck, with A-Rod and his age, who knows if taking a year off of rest and lighter maintenance exercise helps his body heal up more than it has been able to in two decades, he comes back feeling a few years' younger.

One nitpick: there are three guys with 2000+ RBI already, Cap Anson being the third place RBI guy at 2075, and Bonds just shy at 1,996 (and Gehrig at 1,992). That nearness to similar milestones is another reason the almost-surely-illegal collusion that led to the railroading of Bonds was such a loss for the game and its history. Le sigh...

posted by hincandenza at 01:51 PM on February 28

Seattle Wins Super Bowl 0x30

I'd probably have picked Kam Chancellor, honestly. He also had an interception, as well as stifling defense which was the story of the game.

posted by hincandenza at 12:12 AM on February 03

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Super Bowl-a-Geddon Edition

Dammit, looks like bender just edged me for the Costanza. I can't even throw the round correctly, how does that not make me the ultimate Costanza?!?

posted by hincandenza at 11:41 PM on February 02

Seattle Wins Super Bowl 0x30

Good lord, TD on the 2nd half kickoff?!? This is getting ugly. A good kind of ugly if you're from seattle...

posted by hincandenza at 08:33 PM on February 02

Seattle Wins Super Bowl 0x30

Jesus, no one was predicting a blowout; Denver make some huge adjustments at half time.

posted by hincandenza at 07:39 PM on February 02

Seattle Wins Super Bowl 0x30

Well, that's an auspicious beginning...

posted by hincandenza at 06:34 PM on February 02

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Super Bowl-a-Geddon Edition

grum: I know you are trying to lose, but the total points = 3 guess isn't so terrible if the wind/weather gets really freaky.

To definitely lose, you should have chosen 1 point.

I was technically trying to be legit by picking theoretically possible values (compared to the LSD-fueled picks of Hugh Janus a few weeks' ago ). 1 point isn't possible, where a 3-0 game has happened in NFL history... but is effectively impossible.

I mean, if it's a 3-0 game, I figure it'll be on a last-second 65-yard FG by surprise kicker John Youboty, named as Super Bowl MVP- in which case, I'm so winning this thing cuz ain't NONE of you picked that. :)

posted by hincandenza at 05:30 PM on February 02

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Super Bowl-a-Geddon Edition

1. Winner of the game (and spread): Denver, by 100 points
2. Player with the most receiving yards: Peyton Manning, Denver
3. Player with the most rushing yards: Ryan Clady, Denver
4. First player to score a touchdown: Dan Koppen, Denver
5. Player chosen as the game's MVP: John Youboty, Denver
6. One defensive player who will get an interception: Hall Davis, Denver
7. One defensive player who will get a sack (or partial sack): John Boyett, Denver
8. The brand/company that will win the USA Today Ad-Meter: NAMBLA
9. For tiebreaker purposes, the total points scored in the game (if two entrants are still tied after this tiebreaker, the entry submitted earlier wins): 3 points

I kinda wish I could make more likely picks, but I kinda want to win the Costanza in a laugher at this point.

posted by hincandenza at 05:49 PM on February 01

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

That's great news... but Jesus, are those comments depressing.

posted by hincandenza at 11:59 AM on January 28

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Championship Games-a-Ganza Edition

I'm left with only one choice: go for the Costanza, 100%. I don't imagine I'll pick a single healthy, active roster player for the Super Bowl pick' em. :)

And how about dyams, whose pick consistency has not only netted him the lead, but makes him look like the downstairs neighbor of the Beast.

posted by hincandenza at 03:41 PM on January 20

Seahawks Edge Niners

I agree, for example that fumble that wasn't at the 1 yard line for Seattle (which quickly proved irrelevent) being a prime example.

They should just institute booth-based instant replay, on ALL plays. A team up in a booth watches multiple feeds in real time, just like fans at home but with a better setup, and can hit a panic button at any time for "booth review", signalling a pause in play to potentially prevent another snap, and a formal review. They then review the feeds in slo-mo, and have the ability to oveeturn the call on the field.

People croak about this, imaging games taking 4+ hours... and all new replay rules are a big to-do in the off-season. But really, they'd likely only use it a few times a game, and it'd be happening at the same time as viewers at home were watching replays already at home, so it wouldn't really add much if any time at all.

I don't know why all the major sports have such a hard-on for traditionalism and this idea of the infallible ref. No human can be all places at all times, so use technology to insure the right call is made at all times, and it's absurd to me that even before the teams line up for the next step, Joe Six Pack at home already jnows the last call was BS.

posted by hincandenza at 12:16 AM on January 20

Seahawks Edge Niners

Cue the Kanye memes: "Yo, Richard Sherman, I'm real happy for you, and imma let you finish, but Beyonce was the best corner of all time. Of all time!"

posted by hincandenza at 10:53 PM on January 19

Seahawks Edge Niners

That interception was infuckingcredible!!! In a house full of Seahawks fans here in Seattle, and it went nuts- as did most every home and sports bar in Seattle, I'm sure...

posted by hincandenza at 10:00 PM on January 19

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Championship Games-a-Ganza Edition

I do so hope Hugh Janus is able to get his picks in on time. While he's out of the running for the Pick 'em Trophy as well as the fabled Costanza, the last I checked he was at 90 degrees from reality and thus lapping the pack for the mythical "Leary Trophy".

posted by hincandenza at 01:08 PM on January 18

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Championship Games-a-Ganza Edition

Patriots by 10
Seahawks by 10 +1
Manning, passing yards +1
Edelman, receiving yards
Lynch, rushing yards
Sherman, int/fumble recovery

posted by hincandenza at 11:39 PM on January 17

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

Well... actually, Gisele wears the pants in the family; she's made twice as much money as Brady has. So maybe his security detail is what happens when you marry one of the world's richest supermodels. :)

posted by hincandenza at 01:21 PM on January 17

Dodgers Drive Money Truck to Kershaw's House

But in MJ's defense, Kershaw is still only 25, already has 2 Cy Youngs, and no hint of off-field issues. While pitchers are risky, the big contracts are typically risky because of the timing: players don't usually get that big payday until they're cresting 30, which- like Cano, Pujols, and Hamilton- means they've already started their downward slope. For those guys, a 10 year deal where the back 4 are wasted money while the front 5/6 are a team discount, can hurt a team by them losing a top player who is effectively replaced a marginal copy of themselves while still costing top dollar. But a 7 year deal, with the last two as player options? Barring injury- and thats what insurance is for- Kershaw should still be worth it in the last couple of years. And if Kershaw is still good then, he'll hopefully recall how the Dodgers treated him and keep them as first choice on any new deals.

This is the kind of move the Angels should make with Trout: pay him now, sign him through his early 30s, and don't get stuck with fan pressure to overpay him when he's fading.

posted by hincandenza at 04:04 PM on January 16

Dodgers Drive Money Truck to Kershaw's House

Yeah, but Sandy Koufax was a confirmed steroid user, who was only able to play at a major league level because of his rampant PED use. He should have been blacklisted from the game, not allowed to pitch and eventually make it to the Hall of Fame. Keyshawn, as far as I know, is completely clean.

posted by hincandenza at 12:05 PM on January 16

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle

I completely agree with phaedon; ARod is a choad and all, but justice is supposed to be blind. At least from what I've read, MLB acted in ways that a truly impartial arbiter would have pounced on, including not having Bud Selig testify as to why, exactly, ARod deserved an especially harsh sentence and not the smae 50 days as everyone else.

The truth is, we know why: so MLB could toss up ARod as a sacrificial lamb like they did with Bonds before, and so the Yankees would not have to pay his salary, thus freeing it up for other playees. Which is something an impartial arbiter would, again, pounce on.

And the dutiful lapdogs in the media will spin their propaganda, including telling us that ARod should just shut up and go away because it would be "better" for him/the league/the sport, with whatever hamfisted appeals to honor or unwritten code.

You can see this trend in every HoF ballot that listed no Bonds or Clemens. MLB is setting ARod up to be run out of the sport so they dont have to pay him, and will use his poor showing in the HoF voting as retroactive justification for his being run out of baseball.

posted by hincandenza at 07:06 PM on January 13

49ers Smother Panthers

Uh, look I know you're high off your 7 point dominance in week 2 of the pick 'em, but there are teams in Denver and New England who might dispute that claim.

posted by hincandenza at 11:39 PM on January 12

SportsFilter: The Sunday Huddle

Not to mention if the Seahawks and Patriots face off in the Superbowl, it's basically a Pete Carroll reunion party (given how loved he was back in his New England days...).

On the other hand, a Seahawks/Broncos match could- what with the legalization of recreational marijuana by the two states involved- lead to Super Bowl XLIX being unofficial dubbed the "Bud Bowl"... or maybe just the Smoka Bowl.

posted by hincandenza at 11:38 PM on January 12

Patriots Run Over Colts

Whoa. I have never seen a team punt from the 26 before; did they not do the FG just for some bullshit "don't run up the score" reason?

I wanna see another Blount TD, and tie/set records of 5 and 7 for the team. Especially because we'll have a weird stat of "The Patriots have never lost a playoff game where Tom Brady threw 0 touchdowns."

posted by hincandenza at 11:23 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

Wish they'd given it to Blount to tie the record there, but the Pats are clearly looking to spread some love and carry over into next week. Maybe Blount will get one more later.

posted by hincandenza at 11:00 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

No, they're all salaried.

Edit: Jesus, have yourself a game Le Garrette Blount!!!

posted by hincandenza at 10:44 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

Gostkowski is doing a pretty great job as the punter here.

posted by hincandenza at 10:36 PM on January 11

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Division Round-a-Go-Go Edition

Wait, it's gotta be based on the actual margin, not each persons pick, right? From your rules last week:

You get one point for picking the winner, one extra point for picking the spread within 30% of the spread (rounded down), and another extra point for picking the exact spread.
I mean, it's your pick 'em but I hope you'll reconsider, as it seems more fair to go by +/-30% of the winning margin, as it doesn't penalize people who pick low.

posted by hincandenza at 10:16 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

Oh shit, Belichick has his hoodie off- shit's getting real!

NE looks awful so far in the third, but great work on holding them to a FG.

posted by hincandenza at 10:02 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

Oh, sorry- to clarify, fall on the ball in the end zone, give them the two, then punt them to the 50/40 and give the defence the chance? What he was doing could easily have become a TD. Although I'm wondering if he was going for a lateral/incomplete "pass" so the ball would be turned over on downs at the 50 or so.

Still, I can be happy with 21-12, better than the alternative.

posted by hincandenza at 09:48 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

That was a bush league snap if there ever was one. Not sure what the punter was hoping to do; don't you fall on the ball, and give the defense at least a chance to hold them to a FG?

Oof, and then the Pats muffed what looked to be an easy INT by stepping on each other's toes. Not a great few minutes for New England.

posted by hincandenza at 09:29 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

I saw last week's game so I'm not banking on anything even with a healthy 21-7 lead... but I gotta figure Belichick won't let this team leave anything in the tank until the final play.

Also, three TDs for Blount with 10:00+ left in the first half? Hes gotta be at or nearing some kind of record.

posted by hincandenza at 09:07 PM on January 11

Patriots Run Over Colts

Ahem... I believe this calls for a w0o+!

posted by hincandenza at 08:30 PM on January 11

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Division Round-a-Go-Go Edition

grum@work: I'm not sure if my 11 point spread gets me the extra point.
I don't think so; the difference was 8, and it's .30 each way rounded down- so 2.4 points, rounded down, is a range of 6-10 to get the extra point.

posted by hincandenza at 08:27 PM on January 11

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Division Round-a-Go-Go Edition

rcade: I wonder if anyone will beat Grum's 7 from last week. Totes a-mah-zing.
I can't get the point on the fumble/int call (Sherman didn't pull it off this afternoon) but I already got 2 from just the first game, so 7 is very much in reach here for me.

In fact, looking over this Seahawks game was pretty lopsided in our picks; 20 of 21 people picked Seattle (except poor holden and of course, Hugh Janus), of which 12 had their spread in the 6-10 range.

posted by hincandenza at 07:54 PM on January 11

Seahawks Stymie Saints

I'm happy for it- I could have sworn Sherman got that 2nd quarter fumble, but other than that I had a good start to the weekend Pick 'Em with two points on the game, just covering the spread when I shifted my pick a little before the game due to the heavy rain.

posted by hincandenza at 07:51 PM on January 11

Seahawks Stymie Saints

Really hoping the Saints score here, it'll close the gap on the spread and get me another point in the Pick 'Em!

posted by hincandenza at 07:35 PM on January 11

Seahawks Stymie Saints

Wilson is really starting to heat up here... should have left my spread call in the pick 'em higher.

posted by hincandenza at 05:44 PM on January 11

Seahawks Stymie Saints

The spread can be partly explained because, but for that holding call on the Turbin run, they'd be up 20-0 in the 2nd.

posted by hincandenza at 05:32 PM on January 11

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Division Round-a-Go-Go Edition

The rain has let up here, but I figure leaving seattle and new england each at 10 over is better than gambling on the blowout for both.

posted by hincandenza at 03:46 PM on January 11

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Division Round-a-Go-Go Edition

It is pouring down in Seattle right now in absolute buckets- as hard as I've ever seen it rain in my life. Gonna revise my spread to Seattle by 10.

Gonna be an interesting game...

posted by hincandenza at 02:58 PM on January 11

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Division Round-a-Go-Go Edition

I'm pretty sure Hugh Janus locked up the Costanza with those... unique predictions. :) I expect the Neutrinos to tear through any team they face this post-season.

1. Seahawks over Saints, 10 +2
2. Patriots over Colts, 10 +1
3. Panthers over 49ers, 7
4. Broncos over Chargers, 14 +1
5. Demaryius Thomas, recv YDs
6. Demaryius Thomas, recv TDs
7. Richard Sherman, int/fumble recovery

posted by hincandenza at 09:19 PM on January 10

49ers Edge Packers on Last-Second Field Goal

I can't recall the defender, but one of the GB defense had- and dropped- a gimme interception on that last SF drive at around the 4:30 mark. Poor bastard will be thinking of that play for months.

I got absolutely creamed on the Pick 'Em this week; chose my teams and spreads based on a simple formula of weighting the home team, as well as the team with the better point differential and record. Net result, 3 of 4 Away teams won this weekend... and the one home team that won did so through an improbable, historic comeback.

posted by hincandenza at 09:42 PM on January 05

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em, Wild-Card-a-Palooza Edition

Oh look, Jamaal Charles is knocked out of the game early with a concussion, and then the Colts stage one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history.

Guess I'll start clearing a space off on my mantel for the fabled Costanza...

posted by hincandenza at 08:44 PM on January 04