September 30, 2015

NFL Pick 'Em, Week 4: First-Place Jacksonville Edition: Week IV of the NFL season begins Thursday night with Baltimore looking for its first win at Pittsburgh against backup QB Michael Vick. Sunday games begin at 9:30 a.m. Eastern as the New York Jets play Miami in London. Make your picks and select one stone cold lead pipe lock to win (or not).

posted by rcade to football at 02:37 PM - 33 comments

Current Standings

SportsFilter is holding an NFL Pick 'Em contest with a first prize of an NFL Official Game Ball.

TotalWeek 1Week 2Week 3
nomich5122920
holden47211016
ufez jones4516623
yerfatma4420816
tommytrump44121220
rcade4220814
jagsnumberone4217718
goyocolts4212624
algorithm41121613
owlhouse41121316
tahoemoj4118518
howard_t4016816
ic23b4014818
goddam39121017
bender3819415
rumple3881317
tron7379622
ying yang mafia3791315
grum@work36111114
billsaysthis36101115
forrestv3416513
jjzucal3415613
cixelsyd3412418
irish627220517

NoMich takes sole possession of first place. Ufez Jones jumps from 12th all the way up to third, earning 6 on the lock and getting 13 of 16 games correct. Goyocolts climbs from 21st to 6th with the week's best score of 24 (15 of 16 right). Tron7 declares "I am really quite bad at this," then puts up 22 points.

This was a much better week for our prognosticative reputations. No one broke their stone cold lead pipe locks by picking Seattle, Green Bay, New England and Pittsburgh. Players nailed Green Bay by 10 (cixelsyd, goyoucolts, jjzucal, rcade, tron7), Oakland by 7 (tommytrump, grum@work, ufez jones), Atlanta by 11 (forrestv), Carolina by 6 (goyoucolts), New York Giants by 11 (bender), Philadelphia by 7 (holden) and Pittsburgh by 6 (tron7).

Week 3 Results

New York Giants by 11 over Washington
Oakland by 7 over Cleveland
Atlanta by 11 over Dallas
Indianapolis by 2 over Tennessee
Pittsburgh by 6 over St. Louis
Minnesota by 17 over San Diego
New England by 34 over Jacksonville
Philadelphia by 7 over New York Jets
Carolina by 6 over New Orleans
Cincinnati by 4 over Baltimore
Houston by 10 over Tampa Bay
Arizona by 40 over San Francisco
Buffalo by 27 over Miami
Seattle by 26 over Chicago
Denver by 12 over Detroit
Green Bay by 10 over Kansas City

This Week's Games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
New York Jets at Miami
Houston at Atlanta
New York Giants at Buffalo
Oakland at Chicago
Kansas City at Cincinnati
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Philadelphia at Washington
Cleveland at San Diego
Minnesota at Denver
St. Louis at Arizona
Green Bay at San Francisco
Dallas at New Orleans
Detroit at Seattle

Byes: New England, Tennessee

Make your picks and a spread for this week's games to score 1-3 points. Pick one game as a stone cold lead pipe lock and triple your score in victory or lose 3 points in defeat. Full contest rules here.

Check your score last week on the results spreadsheet at Google Docs.

posted by rcade at 02:38 PM on September 30

Baltimore by 4

New York Jets by 5

Atlanta by 6

New York by 3

Oakland by 7

Kansas City by 2

Indianapolis by 8

Carolina by 9

Philadelphia by 10

San Diego by 11

Denver by 12

Arizona by 13

Green Bay by 14

New Orleans by 15

Seattle by 16

posted by tommytrump at 02:46 PM on September 30

Baltimore by 5
New York Jets by 5
Atlanta by 7
Buffalo by 5
Oakland by 7
Cincinnati by 7
Indianapolis by 5
Carolina by 12
Philadelphia by 5
San Diego by 9
Denver by 9
Arizona by 12
Green Bay by 12
Dallas by 5
Seattle by 14

posted by NoMich at 03:00 PM on September 30

Pittsburgh by 6
New York Jets by 3
Atlanta by 10
Buffalo by 10
Oakland by 6
Cincinnati by 8
Indianapolis by 10
Carolina by 3
Philadelphia by 6
San Diego by 10
Denver by 10
Arizona by 10
Green Bay by 7
New Orleans by 3
Seattle by 21

By the way, that Jets/Dolphins game is in London

posted by tron7 at 03:20 PM on September 30

Baltimore by 13

New York Jets by 10

Atlanta by 16

Buffalo by 3

Oakland by 17

Cincinnati by 7

Indianapolis by 14

Carolina by 17

Philadelphia by 10

San Diego by 14

Minnesota by 6

Arizona by 13

Green Bay by 20 (Gimme an L!...Gimme an O!...Gimme a C!....Gimme a K! What's that spell?! Almost assuredly, Green Bay's first loss of the season!

Dallas by 3

Seattle by 13

posted by tahoemoj at 03:32 PM on September 30

Pittsburgh by 3

New York Jets by 7

Atlanta by 4

Buffalo by 8

Oakland by 6

Cincinnati by 7

Indianapolis by 14

Carolina by 11

Philadelphia by 9

San Diego by 4

Denver by 6

Arizona by 9

Green Bay by 17 (LOCK)

Dallas by 6

Seattle by 9

posted by cixelsyd at 05:35 PM on September 30

Pittsburgh by 10
New York Jets by 4
Atlanta by 11
New York Giants by 7
Oakland by 10
Cincinnati by 4
Indianapolis by 13
Carolina by 16
Philadelphia by 10
San Diego by 14
Denver by 4
Arizona by 20
Green Bay by 21
New Orleans by 6
Detroit by 6

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:19 PM on September 30

Baltimore by 10

Miami by 3

Atlanta by 13

Buffalo by 7

Oakland by 17

Kansas City by 4

Indianapolis by 16

Carolina by 10

Philadelphia by 14

San Diego by 20

Minnesota by 3

Arizona by 17

Green Bay by 24 (Stone cold lock of the week)

Dallas by 7

Seattle by 7

posted by Goyoucolts at 06:54 PM on September 30

Baltimore By 3

New York Jets by 8

Atlanta by 23

Buffalo by 4

Oakland by 5

Cincinnati by 13

Indianapolis by 28

Carolina by 18

Washington by 3

San Diego by 6

Denver by 7

Arizona by 23 (lock it in)

Green Bay by 24

New Orleans by 3

Seattle by 24

posted by ic23b at 08:16 PM on September 30

Baltimore by 6

New York Jets by 4

Atlanta by 12

New York Giants by 9

Oakland by 16

Cincinnati by 6

Indianapolis by 16

Carolina by 12

Philadelphia by 8

San Diego by 10

Denver by 9

Arizona by 6

Green Bay by 18

New Orleans by 4

Seattle by 6

posted by goddam at 08:31 PM on September 30

Pittsburgh by 7
New York Jets by 14
Atlanta by 7
New York Giants by 14
Oakland by 7
Cincinnati by 14
Indianapolis by 7
Carolina by 14
Philadelphia by 7
San Diego by 14
Denver by 7
Arizona by 14
Green Bay by 14 (Hayne Plane iced up)
New Orleans by 7
Seattle by 14

posted by owlhouse at 09:40 PM on September 30

Pittsburgh by 4

As a cheater fan of the cheatingest team in the league, I spent some time tonight putting together a parser to try to look at the group consensus because I'm interested to see how close we get. And to see if I can shave an edge!

It needs a bunch of work and a number of assumptions need to be cleaned out. PRs welcomed

posted by yerfatma at 09:56 PM on September 30

Hooray, I've peaked in week 3! Only downhill from here, surely.

Baltimore by 5
Miami by 3
Atlanta by 17
Buffalo by 11
Oakland by 9
Cincinnati by 7
Indianapolis by 14
Carolina by 6
Philadelphia by 7
San Diego by 17
Denver by 11
Arizona by 20
Green Bay by 17
New Orleans by 9
Seattle by 21

posted by Ufez Jones at 10:23 PM on September 30

Baltimore by 6
Miami by 3
Atlanta by 11
Buffalo by 14
Oakland by 6
Cincinnati by 3
Indianapolis by 7
Carolina by 11
Philadelphia by 7
San Diego by 3
Denver by 14
Arizona by 1
Green Bay by 20 (BUSH PARTY LOCK!)
Dallas by 3
Seattle by 17

posted by grum@work at 11:39 PM on September 30

Pittsburgh by 10

Jets by 3

Atlanta by 7

Buffalo by 17

Oakland by 7

KC by 10

Indianapolis by 20 meat locker

Carolina by 17

Philadelphia by 10

San Diego by 6

Minnesota by 9

Arizona by 14

Green Bay by 14

New Orleans by 3

Seattle by 14

posted by rumple at 02:28 AM on October 01

Baltimore by 14

Jets by 8

Atlanta by 2

Giants by 6

Chicago by 3

Cincinnati by 10

Jacksonville (and first place) by 13

Philadelphia by 14

Carolina by 9

San Diego by 12 (Lock it down)

Minnesota by 5

Green Bay by 7

Arizona by 4

New Orleans by 6

Seattle by 4

posted by jagsnumberone at 03:13 AM on October 01

Tron7 declares "I am really quite bad at this," then puts up 22 points.

This was me making my picks last week.

posted by tron7 at 10:19 AM on October 01

Baltimore by 8
New York Jets by 3
Atlanta by 7
New York Giants by 3
Oakland by 11
Cincinnati by 4
Indianapolis by 13 (LOCK LOCK. Who's there? Locky McLock Lock)
Carolina by 8
Philadelphia by 3
San Diego by 10
Denver by 14
Arizona by 3
Green Bay by 24
New Orleans by 3
Seattle by 17

posted by billsaysthis at 10:47 AM on October 01

Pittsburgh by 4
Miami by 8
Atlanta by 7
New York Giants by 3
Oakland by 3
Kansas City by 7
Indianapolis by 7
Carolina by 6
Philadelphia by 7
LOCK San Diego by 13 LOCK
Minnesota by 7
Arizona by 4
Green Bay by 10
New Orleans by 5
Seattle by 9

posted by bender at 11:45 AM on October 01

Not participating the first 3 weeks guarantees me a spot at the bottom, so if you don't want to take the time to analyze someone who's irrelevant, I wouldn't complain.
Otherwise, for kicks :
Pittsburgh by 1
Miami by 3
Atlanta by 4
Buffalo by 8
Oakland by 1
Cincinnati by 6
Indianapolis by 20
Carolina by 7
Philadelphia by 16
San Diego by 9
Denver by 7
Arizona by 10
Green Bay by 13
New Orleans by 11
Seattle by 17 - LOCK

posted by littleLebowski at 12:40 PM on October 01

Having new players jump on board is great, Lebowski. I'll add an average weekly score to the standings so you can see where you rank. Welcome!

Yerfatma: It's cool you're throwing some code at this. I'll be running that when I get a chance. Are you going to post the output here?

posted by rcade at 01:51 PM on October 01

I certainly can. It's really raw and as I keep refining it I find I hate all of you more and more with your cutesy team nicknames, your odd formatting and your insistence on not specifying which "New York" you mean. It's the first bit of non-work programming I've done in months and I'm actually having fun with it so I can definitely post the results as I go. Right now it looks like this:

Dallas at New Orleans: new orleans: 12 votes, 6.25 average spread / dallas: 5 votes, 4.80 average spread

Minnesota at Denver: minnesota: 5 votes, 6.00 average spread / denver: 12 votes, 9.17 average spread

St. Louis at Arizona: arizona: 17 votes, 11.35 average spread / st louis: 0 votes, 0.00 average spread

Kansas City at Cincinnati: cincinnati: 13 votes, 7.38 average spread / kansas city: 4 votes, 5.75 average spread

Oakland at Chicago: oakland: 16 votes, 8.44 average spread / chicago: 1 votes, 3.00 average spread

Green Bay at San Francisco: green bay: 17 votes, 16.24 average spread / san francisco: 0 votes, 0.00 average spread

Houston at Atlanta: houston: 0 votes, 0.00 average spread / atlanta: 17 votes, 9.65 average spread

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: indianapolis: 16 votes, 13.25 average spread / jacksonville: 1 votes, 13.00 average spread

New York Giants at Buffalo: buffalo: 10 votes, 8.70 average spread / new york giants: 6 votes, 7.00 average spread

Philadelphia at Washington: washington: 1 votes, 3.00 average spread / philadelphia: 16 votes, 8.94 average spread

Carolina at Tampa Bay: tampa bay: 0 votes, 0.00 average spread / carolina: 17 votes, 10.94 average spread

New York Jets at Miami: miami: 5 votes, 4.00 average spread / new york jets: 12 votes, 6.17 average spread

Cleveland at San Diego: san diego: 17 votes, 10.71 average spread / cleveland: 0 votes, 0.00 average spread

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: pittsburgh: 8 votes, 5.62 average spread / baltimore: 10 votes, 7.40 average spread

Detroit at Seattle: seattle: 16 votes, 13.94 average spread / detroit: 1 votes, 6.00 average spread

== LOCKS == (TODO: handle bolding)
green bay: 5

arizona: 1

san diego: 2

indianapolis: 2

seattle: 1

jacksonville: 1

(Oh crap, now the parser is going to have to deal with this!)

posted by yerfatma at 02:41 PM on October 01

Pittsburgh by 4

Miami by 6

Atlanta by 10

Buffalo by 7

Chicago by 3

Cincinnati by 9

Jacksonville by 4

Carolina by 7

Philadelphia by 7

San Diego by 5

Denver by 10

Arizona by 10

Green Bay by 15

New Orleans by 3

Seattle by 10 lock

posted by yerfatma at 03:27 PM on October 01

I no longer look forward to seeing how many I get right. I wait to see how many I get wrong.

Baltimore by 2

New York Jets by 1

Atlanta by 4

Buffalo by 1

Oakland by 2

Cincinnati by 8

Jacksonville by 1

Carolina by 3

Philadelphia by 3

San Diego by 2

Denver by 8

Arizona by 3

Green Bay by 9

Dallas by 5

Seattle by 4

posted by forrestv at 03:42 PM on October 01

Going with a couple of shockers:

Pittsburgh by 12

Miami by 16

Atlanta by 11

Buffalo by 3

Oakland by 3

Kansas City by 10

Indianapolis by 20

Tampa Bay by 5

Philly by 14

San Diego by 7

Denver by 18 (Chop Lock of the Week)

St. Louis by 2

Green Bay by 6

New Orleans by 17

Seattle by 5

posted by jjzucal at 03:59 PM on October 01

(Oh crap, now the parser is going to have to deal with this!)

Prefix output with a delimiter that no spofi member would use in their picks and filter (ignore) that in python, perhaps:

!# Dallas at New Orleans: new orleans: 12 votes, 6.25 average spread / dallas: 5 votes, 4.80 average spread

.. the LOCK detection would appear to be the trickier task with all of the crafty entries.

posted by cixelsyd at 04:29 PM on October 01

Baltimore by 7

Jets by 3

Atlanta by 7

Buffalo by 10

Oakland by 7

KC by 3

Indianapolis by21

Carolina by 4

Philadelphia by 6

San Diego by 13

Denver by 11

Arizona by 7

Green Bay by 6

New Orleans by 13

Seattle by 17 - LOCK

posted by Irish627 at 05:03 PM on October 01

Baltimore by 3
New York Jets by 8
Atlanta by 7
Buffalo by 6
Oakland by 3
Cincinnati by 6
Jacksonville by 6
Carolina by 7
Philadelphia by 4
San Diego by 10
Denver by 4
Arizona by 13
Green Bay by 14
Dallas by 3
Seattle by 11 <-- June Lockhart in Meet Me in St. Lockis

posted by rcade at 06:39 PM on October 01

Prefix output with a delimiter that no spofi member would use in their picks and filter

Whitelist, not blacklist is tattoo'd on my forehead. It should be smart enough to ignore this kind of thing (I could just ignore second comments from the same user).

the LOCK detection would appear to be the trickier task with all of the crafty entries

Yeah, but really only because I'm using the text of comments instead of the raw HTML as the HTML isn't necessarily valid and varies wildly. And I would like to personally thank whomever listed their spreads in word form (e.g., "three" instead of 3) in Week One as I spent a good hour looking for packages that would reverse that. Plenty exist to go from number to word, but not many to do the reverse (not totally surprising given the dark corners that exist in the problem, especially if you're not working with a single language).

posted by yerfatma at 07:58 PM on October 01

(I could just ignore second comments from the same user).

Some users pick Thursday's game and then post the rest later.

The Java code I've written to keep score doesn't try to figure out user entries yet, except for normalizing all team names when it knows other forms of the name. I clean up the pick input data manually for now.

posted by rcade at 08:35 PM on October 01

Baltimore by 7
Miami by 4
Atlanta by 10
New York Giants by 7
Oakland by 7
Cincinnati by 6
Indianapolis by 13
Carolina by 7
Philadelphia by 13
San Diego by 10
Denver by 7
Arizona by 3
Green Bay by 14 LOCKNESS MONSTER
New Orleans by 7
Seattle by 10

posted by holden at 08:42 PM on October 01

For any number of reasons Thursday is a very busy day for me, and I can never seem to get to doing my picks until the very last minute. This week I couldn't even do that. Add to that the idea that this Friday and Saturday put a lot more on the agenda than usual. So now it's Saturday night, and I sit alone without a date. Oh, wait, I'm married and my wife is in the other room. Well there goes that fantasy. Here's the picks.

NY (American Conference) by 12
Cincinnati by 5
Washington by 14
Buffalo by 3
Indianapolis by 16
Tampa Bay by 4
Oakland by 10
Atlanta by 9
San Diego by 15 Yale never built a LOCK as strong as this one.
Green Bay by 10
Arizona by 6
Denver by 13
New Orleans by 7
Seattle by 18

posted by Howard_T at 08:51 PM on October 03

My Seattle lock wasn't looking too good with Megatron on the half-yard line extending for the end zone.

posted by rcade at 11:22 PM on October 05

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