04/25/24
December 07, 2014
Tide-Buckeyes, Ducks-Noles: It's official -- the participants in the College Football Playoff will be the four power-conference champions that played a conference championship game. #2 Oregon takes on undefeated defending national champions #3 Florida State in the Rose Bowl, while Nick Saban's #1 Alabama faces Urban Meyer's #4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. #5 Baylor and #6 TCU are left out, handicapped by being in the 10-team Big 12.
Yeah, the B1G championship game definitely helped Ohio -- if they'd been sitting at home this weekend with two injured QBs, the committee would have slud Baylor up there instead.
Best part of the bracket announcement is the Big 12 commissioner claiming that they were always going to have co-champions, except that they would pick one as their representative for the big-money bowls, except that they wouldn't use any formal pre-determined criteria for it, except that they totally would, except except except...
posted by Etrigan at 01:50 PM on December 07, 2014
I'm not sure why Harvard isn't in the College Football Playoff
Let me map it out for you:
First of all, Harvard is undefeated this year.
Second of all, they can claim to be better than the other teams with one-loss in the top 6.
They are better than Alabama.
Harvard beat Yale
Yale beat Army
Army beat Toledo
Toledo beat Bowling Green
Bowling Green beat Indiana
Indiana beat Missouri
Missouri beat Arkansas
Arkansas beat Mississippi
Mississippi beat Alabama
They are better than Oregon.
Harvard beat Yale
Yale beat Army
Army beat Toledo
Toledo beat Bowling Green
Bowling Green beat Indiana
Indiana beat Purdue
Purdue beat Illinois
Illinois beat Penn State
Penn State beat Rutgers
Rutgers beat Washington State
Washington State beat Utah
Utah beat UCLA
UCLA beat Arizona
Arizona beat Oregon
They are better than Ohio State.
Harvard beat Yale
Yale beat Army
Army beat Toledo
Toledo beat Bowling Green
Bowling Green beat Akron
Akron beat Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh beat Boston College
Boston College beat Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech beat Ohio State
They are better than Baylor.
Harvard beat Yale
Yale beat Army
Army beat Toledo
Toledo beat Bowling Green
Bowling Green beat Indiana
Indiana beat Missouri
Missouri beat Arkansas
Arkansas beat Mississippi
Mississippi beat Alabama
Alabama beat West Virginia
West Virginia beat Baylor
They are better than TCU.
Harvard beat Yale
Yale beat Army
Army beat Toledo
Toledo beat Bowling Green
Bowling Green beat Indiana
Indiana beat Missouri
Missouri beat Arkansas
Arkansas beat Mississippi
Mississippi beat Alabama
Alabama beat West Virginia
West Virginia beat Baylor
Baylor beat TCU
So it should be Harvard, Florida State, and then any two also-ran one-loss teams.
(For the record, Florida State's chain of victories begins with:
Florida State beat Wake Forest
Wake Forest beat Army
Army beat Toledo
Toledo beat Bowling Green
...and from there you can finish off the other chains.)
posted by grum@work at 02:14 PM on December 07, 2014
I would be inclined to say that the Big XII not having a title game hurt them, but Baylor had a competitive game against a ranked opponent, so it's not like they did not have a chance to make their case on the last weekend of the season. Considering the Big XII generally has been stronger than the Big Ten this year, I would have given the nod to one of the two Big XII teams, but OSU dominated in a conference title game, so it's not entirely indefensible. Either way, I doubt anyone is Madison is getting a fruit basket from anyone in NorthTexas this holiday season.
posted by holden at 04:08 PM on December 07, 2014
It's a naked sham, and driven by dollars, lets not kid ourselves. Ohio State will pull way more dollars into the NCAA coffers than TCU. I don't care what the argument, it all boils down to the bones brothers and sisters.
posted by sonosmith at 04:55 PM on December 07, 2014
grum would have voted for Robbie Bosco.
posted by Etrigan at 05:11 PM on December 07, 2014
I've been informed that Harvard will automatically refuse any post-season bowl appearances (school policy).
posted by grum@work at 05:32 PM on December 07, 2014
TCU will be defending the College Football Belt against Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.
posted by Etrigan at 06:40 PM on December 07, 2014
Either way, I doubt anyone is Madison is getting a fruit basket from anyone in NorthTexas this holiday season.
TCU is in North Texas, but it ends right before Waco. So this outraged North and Central Texas.
posted by rcade at 07:55 PM on December 07, 2014
I find it funny that the Belt hasn't actually landed on the National Champion team since 2010.
posted by grum@work at 09:55 PM on December 07, 2014
I find it hard to believe that f TCU or Baylor were Oklahoma or Texas they still would have been on the outside looking in.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 11:20 PM on December 07, 2014
So it should be Harvard, Florida State, and then any two also-ran one-loss teams.
By your logic shouldn't it be Fair Harvard, Yale, Army and Toledo?
posted by yerfatma at 08:47 AM on December 08, 2014
TCU is in North Texas, but it ends right before Waco. So this outraged North and Central Texas.
Funny -- I almost looked it up when I posted this to make sure I was geo-characterizing the applicable parts of Texas correctly, but thought to myself "No one is going to call you on that." Forgot that we have an unrepentant North Texan as overlord.
posted by holden at 12:09 PM on December 08, 2014
It's a naked sham, and driven by dollars, lets not kid ourselves.
I think your view lacks nuance. There were 5 (maybe 6) teams that deserved consideration for the 4-team playoff. I think it is very difficult to make a case that Ohio State flat-out didn't deserve to be in the final 4. They lost 1 game, early in the season, playing with a new quarterback who matured over the season to the extent that he became an anticipated Heisman finalist. When he went down, they put a true freshman in to start his first game and he led the team to a 59-0 victory over the 13th ranked team in the country. And you say it is a "naked sham" that the Buckeyes made the cut? I'll even concede that dollars may have been the final consideration that set one team apart from the other, but there was a lot more than dollars at play on Sunday.
I feel bad for TCU, and they had every right to be in the mix. But their own conference alignment shot them in the foot by not having a conference title game for them to make their case. Baylor, too. Shit, if TCU and Baylor played each other for the conference championship on saturday, the winner is in--no question.
The bottom line is that at least one deserving team was going to get hosed, but calling it a naked sham fails to give credit to the Buckeyes where it is due.
posted by tahoemoj at 01:04 PM on December 08, 2014
Forgot that we have an unrepentant North Texan as overlord.
When your alma mater is a directional school you're all about the adjective.
But their own conference alignment shot them in the foot by not having a conference title game for them to make their case.
True, but I agree with Gil LeBreton of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that the committee would never have jumped Ohio State over Texas or Oklahoma, all else being equal. It's a bummer. I wish we already had an eight-team playoff.
posted by rcade at 01:36 PM on December 08, 2014
I find it hard to believe that f TCU or Baylor were Oklahoma or Texas they still would have been on the outside looking in.
If Texas had gone 11-1 this year, they would have non-conference wins over North Texas, BYU, and UCLA. That's one quality win (though UCLA looks worse now than they did all year).
If Oklahoma had gone 11-1 this year, they would have non-conference wins over Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, and Tennessee. That's zero quality wins.
Assume that one lost to the other and the other lost to West Virginia. Do you still put either of them over an undefeated Florida State, a one-loss SEC champion, a one-loss Pac-12 champion that avenged its only loss in a conference championship rematch, or a one-loss B1G champion that has been clearly improving since its early season loss and ran a pretty good Wisconsin team like an FCS game in September?
It's going to be difficult to make the case that any 11-1 Big 12 team is more deserving than any 12-1 power conference team.
posted by Etrigan at 01:52 PM on December 08, 2014
So it should be Harvard, Florida State, and then any two also-ran one-loss teams.
By your logic shouldn't it be Fair Harvard, Yale, Army and Toledo?
Yale had two losses.
Army had seven losses.
Toledo had four losses.
The only other remaining 1-loss teams (other than those I listed before) in D-1 conferences are:
Marshall
New Hampshire
North Dakota State
Illinois State
Jacksonville State
For those teams, you can trace back the "win chain" to Harvard:
Marshall - eventually links into the chain through Illinois
New Hampshire - eventually links into the chain through Toledo
North Dakota State - eventually links into the chain through Baylor
Illinois State - eventually links into the chain through Baylor
Jacksonville State - eventually links into the chain through Ohio State
In all seriousness, Florida State is the only one that you can't link through "win chains" to Harvard.
I assume you can build a similar "win chain" for every team for Florida State.
(But I'll leave that up to anyone else who feels obsessive/compulsive. I've drained myself for this intellectual exercise for now.)
posted by grum@work at 02:08 PM on December 08, 2014
Etrigan: The premise is to take TCU or Baylor's wins and losses this season and search/replace that school's name with either Texas or Oklahoma, not look at what Texas and Oklahoma did this season and switch it to 11-1.
TCU beat the #4, #15, #20 and #7 teams, losing only to #5 Baylor.
Baylor beat the #9, #15 and #9 teams, losing only to unranked West Virginia.
Ohio State beat the #8, #25 and #13 teams, losing to unranked Virginia Tech.
I hate to see the playoff committee value historic pedigree over this season's achievements, which is what it appeared to do. The biggest reason I want a playoff is to take the politics out of it and decide a champ on the field.
posted by rcade at 02:18 PM on December 08, 2014
Where did each of those teams finish? As in, TCU beat #4, 15, 20, and 7 at the time.
I only ask beause I am far too lazy to look this up and for that, I semi-sincerely apologize.
posted by tahoemoj at 03:06 PM on December 08, 2014
TCU: #4 Oklahoma unranked, #15 Oklahoma State unranked, #20 West Virginia unranked, #7 Kansas State #11.
Baylor: #9 TCU #6, #15 Oklahoma unranked, #9 Kansas State #11.
Ohio State: #8 Michigan State #8, #25 Minnesota #25, #13 Wisconsin #18.
posted by rcade at 03:23 PM on December 08, 2014
TCU also beat Minnesota, remember. So that's two wins over ranked teams for TCU, two for Baylor, and three for Ohio State. That's an achievement from this season.
I think the committee went into vapor lock over TCU-or-Baylor because of the head-to-head issue, not because they're TCU and Baylor. If it had been Texas-Oklahoma, I think we'd be seeing the same result.
posted by Etrigan at 05:37 PM on December 08, 2014
Thanks for the info rcade. To expand on what Etrigan said, it seems kind of like both TCU and Baylor get an awful lot of credit for beating a very mediocre Oklahoma team by virtue of an inflated preseason ranking. The Big 12 was pretty weak this year top to bottom, in my opinion, and having two of the top 10 teams, neither of whom played a significant out of conference game, was the result of that top to bottom weakness. But everyone around here knows that I'm an Ohio State apologist, so granis of salt are not unwarranted.
posted by tahoemoj at 06:02 PM on December 08, 2014
But everyone around here knows that I'm an Ohio State apologist, so granis of salt are not unwarranted.
I, on the other hand, am a Michigan and USC alum who would cheer for a meteor strike on an Ohio/Oregon title game, and I still think that the Buckeyes were a perfectly supportable choice for the #4 slot (aside from the fact that they suck).
posted by Etrigan at 06:10 PM on December 08, 2014
According to Jeff Sagarin's rating system, OSU had the 52nd-toughest schedule, while Baylor's was 56th and TCU's was 42nd. Bama came by their ranking honestly, with the 4th toughest schedule overall (teams in the SEC West had the 6 toughest schedules according to these rankings).
posted by holden at 11:31 PM on December 08, 2014
I cannot for the life of me figure out why Minnesota is ranked. Was there really nobody else to choose from? Of course, for weeks the committee was touting TCU's victory over Minnesota as the reason to rank them ahead of Baylor despite TCU's head to head loss.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 12:23 AM on December 09, 2014
Minnesota only lost to the two B1G division champions (including a 1-TD loss to Ohio State in November, when the Buckeyes were rolling), a Big 12 co-champion, and Illinois. That seems like a decent enough reason to put them at the bottom of the rankings.
posted by Etrigan at 09:18 AM on December 09, 2014
To expand on what Etrigan said, it seems kind of like both TCU and Baylor get an awful lot of credit for beating a very mediocre Oklahoma team by virtue of an inflated preseason ranking.
I tend to place more value on where a team was ranked when it got beat than where it ended up. A big reason #4/#15 Oklahoma dropped out of the rankings was because TCU and Baylor beat them.
But looking at the end rankings it does seem like there's a stronger case for the Buckeyes than I realized. My initial take was colored by a bit of Texas homerism.
posted by rcade at 09:19 AM on December 09, 2014
Minnesota only lost to the two B1G division champions (including a 1-TD loss to Ohio State in November, when the Buckeyes were rolling), a Big 12 co-champion, and Illinois. That seems like a decent enough reason to put them at the bottom of the rankings.
I am not familiar with the teams outside of the Top 25 so it is possible that there are no better candidates. But Minnesota did not beat a single ranked team. The only seemingly quality victory they have is over Nebraska. I'm not sure a Top 25 resume is built on MAC schools and Northwestern.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 07:42 PM on December 09, 2014
TCU also beat Minnesota, remember. So that's two wins over ranked teams for TCU, two for Baylor, and three for Ohio State. That's an achievement from this season.
Just one thing to add, which I hadn't realized -- all four of TCU/Baylor's wins over ranked teams were home games, while all three of Ohio State's were on the road.
posted by Etrigan at 08:24 PM on December 10, 2014
Wow, you must really like the Buckeyes to build such a strong case.
Not glancing upthread
posted by tahoemoj at 09:48 PM on December 10, 2014
I had told some friends for a couple weeks that Ohio State was going to get in. and the difference was that they were going to be playing in a conference championship game in the final week.
I had some concern when they went down to the 3rd string QB, but those were cured by half time