December 20, 2006

Let's hear it for the boys!: The 2007 IIHF World Junior Championship starts on December 26th. Here at SportsFilter, an international hockey tournament means, that's right, a confidence pool! No knowledge of hockey is necessary to play. Just click here, rank the 10 teams, and check back on January 6, 2007 to see how you did. It's that easy! Want to do a little research? Here is the tournament's official website.

posted by MrFrisby to fantasy at 05:57 PM - 91 comments

Done!

posted by grum@work at 06:59 PM on December 20

Hmmm, I've got absolutely no clue about this one, except that Canada has some serious junior talent stuck in the NHL.

posted by qbert72 at 08:00 PM on December 20

I'm in. Woo-hoo.

posted by 86 at 08:05 PM on December 20

Confidence: low. On the upside, this is a great opportunity to be completely devastated yet again by the outrageously poor performance of my home country.

posted by BullpenPro at 08:16 PM on December 20

Let's go Belarus! After the olympicks, I have very little confidence in Team USA.

posted by MrFrisby at 08:39 PM on December 20

Sweet.

posted by BullpenPro at 11:01 PM on December 20

I'm in ............

posted by skydivedad at 12:04 AM on December 21

woo. This is an annual post-Christmas tradition, as far as I'm concerned. BTW, TSN will have ALL (I imagine that to mean all Canadian) games streamed online. I'm uncertain whether there are any regional locks in effect, but still... awesome. Should be a good tourney, even if it's impossible for Canada to match last year's supremely dominant and supremely talented team. Best jr. team ever?

posted by mkn at 12:06 AM on December 21

(And I'm guessing the Spengler Cup doesn't warrant a confidence pool, eh?)

posted by mkn at 12:11 AM on December 21

I have refrained from entering any hockey leagues on this site. Until now. I expect to be beaten like a red headed stepchild.

posted by owlhouse at 12:39 AM on December 21

Pah. The U.S. doesn't stand a chance without Phil Kessel. Testicular difficulties and unexpected circumstances are the problem. Wish it wasn't the first time I've said that. (Sorry, Kim. It's me, not you.)

posted by Samsonov14 at 12:59 AM on December 21

I will bed you all before the confidence pool is through!

posted by wingnut4life at 01:39 AM on December 21

Only if by the same method that you juggle.

posted by apoch at 05:01 AM on December 21

unexpected circumstances are the problem. I'll say, I was reading through the Team USA media guide (pdf). Forward Mike Carmen's favorite music is Youngblood, Annapolis, and Wedding Crashers. Defenseman Brian Lee plays Guitar Hero. Well, at least forward Bill Sweatt's favorite TV shows are South Park and Family Guy. Other various stats for Team USA... State most represented: Minnesota (9) NHL team with most draft picks represented: L.A. Kings (3) College/University most represented: U of Minnesota (5)

posted by MrFrisby at 08:00 AM on December 21

There's another pool? Of course I'm in. It's a hockey pool, you say? Even better!

posted by willthrill72 at 08:44 AM on December 21

Testicular difficulties and unexpected circumstances are the problem. Whoa, I first read that as circumcisions.

posted by tselson at 12:20 PM on December 21

Im in, going for a second straight perfect costanza award. Either that or im gonna win the whole damn thing.

posted by Folkways at 03:25 PM on December 21

Hand of Obsidian is gonna straight up murder your ass.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 08:04 PM on December 21

Hand of Obsidian : I know less than 86ers...even worse, I know less than Frisby, which is frightening. Be afraid, be very afraid! Folkways is the one that scares me.

posted by MrFrisby at 09:14 PM on December 21

In case anyone is wondering, the deadline for entering picks will be at the drop of the puck, of the first game. Which is 9:00 a.m. EST on December 26th. Folkways, I removed three of your four picks. I left you with: A Folkways christmas wish.

posted by MrFrisby at 08:41 AM on December 22

That ruins my whole strategy. Thanks a lot.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 10:37 AM on December 22

In the spirit of the season, I want to work a little bit on Project Confidence (that's the Web site supporting all those confidence pools, which I programmed, for those not following). Here are three possible new features, and a fourth option: 1. More statistical analysis. For each team: average, median, high, low, optimal picks. For each participant: ROI for each pick (some thinking to be done). Automatic average participant. 2. Pool history. Add the ability to view the pool standings at different dates. You could navigate the standings day by day, see how you fared each day, and how you climbed or fell. 3. Participant history. Add the ability to open an account, and use it for all your pools. View your pooler history. Note that all pools are still available for you to look at your past results. It's just that they're not linked anywhere. 4. General cleanup and improvements: better pick submission form, ability to close a pool (when it's over) and show a podium, sortable tables. Which of these four options would you prefer? You can pick more than one, but please put them in order. Thanks!

posted by qbert72 at 02:28 AM on December 23

Three would be my favorite option.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:58 AM on December 23

2 - Would this also show the scores entered for each day too? 3 - Even though I already have links to my past performances in my SpoFi profile. 1 - Everybody loves statistical analysis. 4 - I think the submission form looks good and is easy enough to use already. But there's nothing wrong with making improvements.

posted by MrFrisby at 10:59 AM on December 23

5 - Automatic trophy and Costanza plaque generator, so that they're instantly there for the winners and losers

posted by mkn at 12:17 PM on December 23

5, 3, 2, 1, 4.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 01:53 PM on December 23

Would this also show the scores entered for each day too? That's what I had in mind, yes. so 3 and 2 are clear leaders up to now.

posted by qbert72 at 03:48 PM on December 23

3 and 2 for sure..... If you have the Centre Ice Package you can catch some game action starting 9am EST Tuesday, Dec. 26th with the USA vs Germany on the opening schedule.

posted by skydivedad at 07:14 PM on December 25

SpoFi Collective: Rank. team (average pick): 10. Canada (9.357) 9. Sweden (7.143) 8. USA (6.893) 7. Russia (6.857)* 6. Czech Republic (6.857)* 5. Finland (6.679) 4. Slovakia ( 3.679) 3. Switzerland (2.607) 2. Belarus (2.5) 1. Germany (2.429) *Tie breaker goes to Russia for finishing higher (silver) in last years tournament.

posted by MrFrisby at 08:47 AM on December 26

Why did Sweden get so much love? Home field advantage?

posted by MrFrisby at 08:56 AM on December 26

I'd guess their Men's Olympic Gold Medal, along with home ice advantage.

posted by garfield at 09:12 AM on December 26

We have our first final score, Belarus upsets Finland 4-3. Pool standings here.

posted by MrFrisby at 10:16 AM on December 26

Make that two final scores, Germany upsets USA 2-1 (OT).

posted by MrFrisby at 10:21 AM on December 26

Germany is now 2-0. I'm speechless.

posted by qbert72 at 03:25 PM on December 27

I think almost everybody is, well, except for Apoch.

posted by MrFrisby at 06:35 PM on December 27

I can't believe anybody ranked Germany that high.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 08:29 PM on December 27

I say we call Dick Pound in.

posted by wingnut4life at 08:51 AM on December 28

I picked Germany? Huh, I just guessed.

posted by apoch at 10:12 AM on December 28

Everybody picked Germany at some point. You , Apoch, just ranked them the highest at 7.

posted by MrFrisby at 12:29 PM on December 28

I do realize that. I guess I should have said, "I picked Germany that high? Huh, I just guessed when assigning confidence levels."

posted by apoch at 01:23 PM on December 28

You should have said, "Of course I did, you putz. Not all of us are intellectual driftwood as yourself, sir!" That would've been cool.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 03:42 PM on December 28

Oh come on TBH, you should know by now that I'm NOT cool.

posted by apoch at 03:54 PM on December 28

Just a quick question: Do teams get the full "win" point total for winning in overtime/shootout? Because they don't get it in the actual standings. For some reason, I assumed you'd get 3*rank for a regulation win, 2*rank for an overtime/shootout win, 1*rank for an overtime/shootout loss and 0*rank for a regulation loss. So if you gave Germany a rank of 7, you'd have 35 points (instead of their listed 28 points). If you gave Canada a rank of 10, you'd have 60 points (instead of the listed 40 points). If you gave US a rank of 8, you'd have 8 points (instead of the listed 0 points). But if it's strictly 2/0 for wins/losses, I'm fine with that.

posted by grum@work at 05:27 PM on December 28

Quick question from me- Is it possible for the SpoFi Collective to ever win a Confidence Pool?

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:38 PM on December 28

Do teams get the full "win" point total for winning in overtime/shootout? Project Confidence (I love saying this) doesn't support other outcomes than win, loss or draw at the moment. So you can add: 5. Support different kinds of outcomes to award points: OTL, OTW, etc. to my previous upgrade suggestions. Here are MrFrisby's settings for this pool: W/L/D = 2/0/1. I assume he was not aware of the new points system for the tournament, since he allowed draws, which is useless with the current IIHF formula. I'm not sure adopting the IIHF points straight up is such a good idea anyways. Should a semi-final OT loss give 1 point to the loser? Is it possible for the SpoFi Collective to ever win a Confidence Pool? I'm not a mathematician, but I think the answer would be no. Winning a confidence pool requires deviating from the mean in the right direction on the right teams. In the present case, betting high on Germany and low on Czech Republic. The SpoFi Collective is the mean.

posted by qbert72 at 05:46 PM on December 28

Is it possible for the SpoFi Collective to ever win a Confidence Pool? I'm not a mathematician, but I think the answer would be no. Actually, the collective could win. Assume there are 4 teams in the pool (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit) and there are 6 competitors (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Let's assume the teams are ranked by the competitors like this (4 points for position one, down to 1 point for position 4): 1: A C D B 2: A B D C 3: A D C B 4: B A C D 5: C B A D 6: D B C A The "collective" choice is therefore: A B C D (A = 18 points [4*3 + 3*1 + 2*1 + 1*1], B = 15 points [4*1 + 3*3 + 2*0 + 1*2], C = 14 points [4*1 + 3*1 + 2*3 + 1*1], D = 13 points [4*1 + 3*1 + 2*2 + 1*2]). If the teams finish A B C D, then the collective would beat all of the individual members.

posted by grum@work at 07:32 PM on December 28

I assume he was not aware of the new points system for the tournament, since he allowed draws, which is useless with the current IIHF formula. That is correct, I was not aware that the IIHF had changed to that format until after the fact. I can put together a spreadsheet to calculate the confidence pool in this manner (3 points for regulation win, 2 for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss) if that is what the masses would like to do.

posted by MrFrisby at 09:08 PM on December 28

As a member of the masses and because I need all the help I can get PLEASE recalculate the spreadsheet to allow points for OT/SO and make it retroactive to the 1st set of games.......Thanks

posted by skydivedad at 09:29 PM on December 28

Project Confidence (I love saying this) doesn't support other outcomes than win, loss or draw at the moment. So you can add: 5. Support different kinds of outcomes to award points: OTL, OTW, etc. Then I amend my previous statement to: 5,2,3,1,4

posted by MrFrisby at 09:36 PM on December 28

I can put together a spreadsheet to calculate the confidence pool in this manner (3 points for regulation win, 2 for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss) Would that scoring apply to all games including quarters, semis and such? Also, should the games for 5th to 8th place count in this pool? I'll work on modifiers to game results first, as they would have been useful for the Ryder Cup pool too.

posted by qbert72 at 09:46 PM on December 28

Ok skater I am making it official - I think scoring should match the tourny scoring. Just my 2 cents. I don't really think it will help me but what the heck!

posted by skydivemom at 10:17 PM on December 28

Would that scoring apply to all games including quarters, semis and such? Also, should the games for 5th to 8th place count in this pool? The easiest thing to do would be to to keep the scoring consistent through the whole tournament. All games count, even for 5th though 8th place.

posted by MrFrisby at 10:37 PM on December 28

i, too, think the scoring should reflect that of the tourney

posted by goddam at 10:48 PM on December 28

I support whatever keeps me in the lead. I keed, I keed. I'm to lazy to figure out how that'll change the standings, but I think it'd be best for scoring to match the tourney. I hope Russia never wins another game though.

posted by apoch at 02:45 AM on December 29

Actually, the collective could win. Strangely enough, I'm right in the middle of The Wisdom of Crowds.

posted by owlhouse at 04:24 AM on December 29

OK, I'll work on result modifiers today. It's a fairly big change, actually, but one that will add a lot of flexibility. Also, if you prefer to keep a simple 2-0 points system, you can still vote for that, as it will still be supported.

posted by qbert72 at 07:30 AM on December 29

Fris is probably going to have to go back through and re-enter the results so all the points breakdown correctly. Is it possible for him to edit those or is the new scoring system going to have to into effect in the next pool?

posted by apoch at 07:41 AM on December 29

Here are what the standings will look like with the new scoring system.

posted by MrFrisby at 10:57 AM on December 29

MrFrisby will be able to edit old results. I'll most likely run them over myself while testing.

posted by qbert72 at 11:08 AM on December 29

OK, I've updated Project Confidence. Not a small update. It's such a change that I had to temporarily disable new pool creation, because I'll have to redo this process. Complexity has its price. I've also entered the latest game results, and changed the only overtime result yet (Deutschland über Amerika!). I'll pass the torch to MrFrisby from now on. So these standings should be identical to those computed by MrFrisby earlier.

posted by qbert72 at 05:09 PM on December 29

Hey q - something is wrong here! I am still in last place. I think some new figuring is in order. I say give 3 points to the loser and none to the winner and see where that leaves us. Yeah that's it, that is what I really wanted.

posted by skydivemom at 05:18 PM on December 29

Either way I'm third, so it don't matter to me which method is chosen.

posted by mkn at 06:00 PM on December 29

Thanks for the effort q. Now if only I could get some wins out of the Slovaks.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:04 PM on December 29

Didn't I say those russians couldn't win another game? Well then! Why didn't they listen?

posted by apoch at 02:06 AM on December 30

From 1st to 25th in the span of 24 hours. Wow. This is why I didn't brag about Germany.

posted by apoch at 01:20 PM on December 30

Two days ago I was second. Now I'm second to last, and skydivemom's hogging the damned covers.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 02:03 PM on December 30

And the damn Slovaks still haven't had the courtesy to win a game.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 03:02 PM on December 30

I know, I expected more from those friggin Slovaks too. I was hoping the USA win would move me up a few spots but it didn't. Hopefully they can pull another one out against the Swedes tomorrow.

posted by MrFrisby at 07:02 PM on December 30

Those consolation round games (which I didn't really think about when I made my picks) are going to make things pretty interesting. Starting now, the crappy teams are going to be playing each other, and some of them are going to get a couple more wins ... I think we could still see some significant turnover.

posted by Amateur at 09:17 PM on December 31

I need a little more out of Sweden and the USA.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 07:15 AM on January 01

Slovakia still hasn't got a win, losing their first relegation round game to Switzerland. Could they be on their way to the B-Pool? Wow.

posted by Amateur at 11:40 AM on January 02

The grum scenario? The collective is now two points out of first, tied with SummersEve and behind only YYM. Bad day for me. I'm not sure I can still get back in this thing.

posted by Amateur at 09:37 PM on January 02

If Belarus, USA, and Russia can pull off wins today, that should help me get out of the cellar. I don't like sitting down there with Apoch and TBH. I hear they are a bad crowd. I call dibs on "The Grum Scenario" for the name of my next fantasy team.

posted by MrFrisby at 08:12 AM on January 03

a shoot-out?! oh crap!

posted by garfield at 11:44 AM on January 03

phew

posted by garfield at 11:52 AM on January 03

Can someone please explain how Johnathan Toews scored three times in the shoot out? What are the rules for selecting players for the shootout? After the initial 3, can ANYONE shoot again as often as they want? The grum scenario? The collective is now two points out of first, tied with SummersEve and behind only YYM. Just at a glance, if Sweden beats Russia (in regulation), Sweden beats Canada in the finals, and the US beats Russia in the 3rd place game, the SpoFi Collective would win the pool.

posted by grum@work at 12:32 PM on January 03

If the SpoFi Collective wins, does that mean every single one of us that participated gets a trophy? Would we each get one day with the trophy each month?

posted by MrFrisby at 12:46 PM on January 03

SDD has your answer, grum

posted by garfield at 12:59 PM on January 03

I would love to win the trophy and the Costanza in the same pool. Unfortunately, I think that scenario is impossible. If we share the trophy, I'd like to have it next Thursday. I'm having some people over, and I'm one glass short.

posted by BullpenPro at 01:13 PM on January 03

I don't like sitting down there with Apoch and TBH. I hear they are a bad crowd. Dude, you couldn't hang with us if you tried...we're so badass, Greg Maddux crosses to the other side of the street when he sees us coming.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 02:07 PM on January 03

I'm such a conformist. I think like all of you combined.

posted by SummersEve at 02:32 PM on January 03

Psst, can we just end this thing now?

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:28 PM on January 03

This story from ESPN is highlighting some controversy over one of the US attempts in the shootout -- the one that ended up underneath Price. TSN has been silent on this point as far as I've seen.

posted by Amateur at 07:36 PM on January 03

No question the shot should have been reviewed," Rolston said. "If you have [video review] at the tournament, you have to use it. In that case, when the goaltender's pads are in the net, you'd think they'd at least want to look at that. We've looked, and the goaltender's pads are three-fourths in the net. Unless he's Harry Houdini … " The problem is, there is absolutely no way for the overhead review could conclusively overrule the referee's decision based on the video evidence. They never saw the puck go in the net, and they couldn't be sure the puck WASN'T in the one-fourth of the pads outside the net. It wasn't like the puck was hidden inside a catching glove and the entire glove went into the net (in which case logic would state the puck had to be across the line). In this case, they don't know for sure WHERE it went, and keeper's pads didn't cross the line entirely. IF a review had been done, I don't see any way they could have overruled the referee (who said no goal). They might have said "inconclusive", in which case the referee's decision would stand.

posted by grum@work at 11:43 PM on January 03

This is funny... The Penguins watched the US-Canada game after practice. Players exchanged taunts and insults on subjects ranging from the limited schedule played by U.S. colleges to the size of Canada's navy ... U.S. defenseman Brooks Orpik gave the impression that it was in the Penguins' interest to have Canada win, because of the psychological fallout so many co-workers might have experienced if the United States had prevailed. "It's good that they won so half our team will be able to play on Friday." Canada has a navy?

posted by SummersEve at 05:41 AM on January 04

Ton for ton, as modern and capable as any fleet in the world. Who do we think we're kidding? This being said, we do have the best junior player in the world. He plays for the Penguins. And grum is right about the video review. I'm not sure myself that that puck wasn't in, but there is no way to prove it. And I thought Price showed good instinct in stopping himself from sliding all the way into the net, and then spinning sideways while continually covering the puck. He played it smart.

posted by qbert72 at 10:29 AM on January 04

Great, just friggin great. The Slovaks finally decide to start scoring. Something that would have been useful, YESTERDAY!!!

posted by MrFrisby at 11:06 AM on January 04

I am just realizing now that I did not join this pool. Ah well, I'll have the Costanza machine prepped for whoever claims the booby prize.

posted by gspm at 11:53 AM on January 04

I'm up by one point. Arrgh, how much longer does this go on???

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 07:17 PM on January 04

One more day. Two games. The only way I can see you losing is if Canada and the US win their games in regulation time. Then, NoMich would win. I've only looked at it quickly, though. Just trying to bait grum into running all the scenarios.

posted by qbert72 at 08:19 PM on January 04

If Russia wins I'm pretty sure I'm taking home the Costanza.

posted by apoch at 11:40 AM on January 05

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