FanDuel - WFBC

November 02, 2007

The Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Nine: NFL picks that didn't know ships were still being hijacked by pirates. Betting advice (no wagering please) by SportsFilter's own wfrazerjr.

posted by rcade to football at 11:59 AM - 28 comments

Your lock of the week is New England on the Indianapolis Speedway? The Patriots are playing great, but I'm going to hold off on betting the farm against the Super Bowl champs at home. The Colts are at worst the second-best team in the NFL.

posted by rcade at 12:04 PM on November 02

Agreed on the Colts. However, the second-best team in the NFL this season is playing the best team in the history of the league, a team that is just now getting up to speed defensively with Harrison and Seymour back. In addition, Marvin Harrison has already missed two practices this week and Dungy says probably won't be in, Tony Ugoh is out and Ryan Diem is banged up. I'm comfortable with this up to -9.5.

posted by wfrazerjr at 12:14 PM on November 02

New England (-4.5) at INDIANAPOLIS – O/U 56: Folks, this is the greatest team of all time we’re watching here. The Colts are an obstacle, but in the same fashion a parking bump would be to Bigfoot. We’d bet the Pats if the line was two touchdowns. Patriots 37, Colts 20. People will accuse me of irrational New England exuberance, but I think you're right, including the >2 TD margin. Not to digress, but wouldn't you be patting yourself on the back if you bought ad space for this game whenever they sold it, back in March or something?

posted by lil_brown_bat at 12:24 PM on November 02

Not to digress, but wouldn't you be patting yourself on the back if you bought ad space for this game whenever they sold it, back in March or something? Oh, I did, lbb, for Uncle Hoser's Feisty Clam Chowder. Unfortunately, we've just been informed that by doing the voiceover myself and thus pronouncing every letter in the word "chowder", no one in New England have any clue what we're selling.

posted by wfrazerjr at 12:29 PM on November 02

I don't think you get to be the best team in the history of the league when somebody else went through you on the way to a ring 10 months ago.

posted by rcade at 12:30 PM on November 02

I feel like everyone (except rcade and me) has lost their mind. A team cannot even be discussed among the best ever until after their Super Bowl victory. It can't be done.

posted by bperk at 12:31 PM on November 02

Wait, I want in. When the defending champs are a home dog the next year, they win almost 80% of the time. Not cover; win. My source for this info makes a living betting football, so, while I can't link to back up my info, I'm thinking it's pretty reliable. Take it for what it's worth.

posted by tahoemoj at 12:40 PM on November 02

When the defending champs are a home dog the next year, they win almost 80% of the time. Not cover; win. By the same token, Teams who average >35 points/game win 80% of their games.

posted by jmd82 at 01:09 PM on November 02

bperk: I feel like everyone (except rcade and me) has lost their mind. How so?

posted by lil_brown_bat at 01:09 PM on November 02

I predict the Rams will not lose this week.

posted by brickman at 01:16 PM on November 02

Another important statistic to keep in mind is: When Tahoemoj makes a football bet, he loses 95% of the time. I was going to put a few bucks on the Colts and the money line. I just like to see my neighborhood casinos turn a profit.

posted by tahoemoj at 01:19 PM on November 02

Well, the Colts can run - and we're not sure the Pats can, because they don't much. And I like that Indy D. But I can't bet against a team that smacked 52 points on a good Washington D and has covered every game thus far. I just can't.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 01:56 PM on November 02

When the defending champs are a home dog the next year, they win almost 80% of the time. Not cover; win. 'moj, I think the world of ya', but this is a 20% week, I'm afraid. And fraze, my inner homer wants to so take issue with you on the Seahawks, but even I have my money-er-selection on the Browns. I take solace in the fact that Seattle is among the top five most inconsistent teams in NFL history. No I don't.

posted by THX-1138 at 02:31 PM on November 02

What, no pick in the Tennessee-Carolina game?

posted by bender at 03:18 PM on November 02

When Tennessee plays Carolina, everybody loses.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 03:50 PM on November 02

Carolina (+4.5) at TENNESSEE -- O/U 35.5: Your season is shot when you're sitting around hoping for Vinny Testaverde to get better. Titans 19, Panthers 13.

posted by wfrazerjr at 04:59 PM on November 02

One of The Hoser’s staff writers came to our Halloween party in a big Massengill box. He was almost disqualified from our football-themed costume contest until he explained he was dressed as Jon Kitna. Ha! Great article as usual, wfrazerjr. Re the showdown between the undefeateds: I can't imagine the Patriots losing to anyone right now; if they continue playing like they have through the first half of the season. I'm totally buying into the hype surrounding this game (unfortunately?) which leads me to believe it will be closer than even Vegas thinks. There's just enough mystique around the Colts playing at home in the RCA Dome with Adam Vinatieri, though, which is why I'll be keeping my pick to myself.

posted by redsnare at 05:44 PM on November 02

"However, the second-best team in the NFL this season is playing the best team in the history of the league". WFrazerjr; Isn't the best team in league history a bit much? Don't anoint the team great until it has done something great, like being undefeated for the seaon. The Miami Dolfin team that went undefeated in the early 70s still is the greatest team in NFL history and will remain such until a team exceed their accomplishment.

posted by Cave_Man at 06:31 AM on November 03

I agree, Cave_Man. "It aint over till it's over." I hate to admit it but the Pats do look really good this year and yes they probably will beat the Colts. However "on any given Sunday..." And wasn't it the lowly Steelers who ended the Pats perfect season in the '05-'06 season? So maybe you want to put just a little $$ on the Colts.

posted by steelergirl at 09:37 AM on November 03

Isn't the best team in league history a bit much? Don't annoint the team great until it has done something great, like being undefeated for the seaon. I don't equate an undefeated team with the greatest team in league history. I'd take at least the 1985 Bears and the 1989 San Francisco 49ers -- as would Page 2. Also, I'm not going to take you seriously if you can't be bothered to spell "Dolphin" correctly.

posted by wfrazerjr at 09:55 AM on November 03

Of the 17 victories the '72 Dolphins beat, only 5 were against teams that ended the season with winning records, and that includes their post season victories. That isn't particularly impressive.

posted by apoch at 12:57 PM on November 03

I am the biggest Pats homer ever but I would be more comfortable picking the Rams to lose than the Pats to win on the road against the defending champs who I am sure got wind of the fact that they are projected to lose.

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 02:04 PM on November 03

"Also, I'm not going to take you seriously if you can't be bothered to spell "Dolphin" correctly. posted by wfrazerjr at 9:55 AM CST on November 3" Oh well, you deserve to get one right over me once in a while. Par for the course all the time would simply be uncivilized.

posted by Cave_Man at 05:17 PM on November 03

Well, the Colts can run - and we're not sure the Pats can, because they don't much. And I like that Indy D. posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 1:56 PM CST on November 2 The Pats have more rushing attempts (259) for the 4th most yards (1086) so far this year... But how can they be the best ever... they don't even have a rap video!

posted by bobfoot at 07:48 PM on November 03

kyrilmitch- no way the Rams are going to lose this week. Bye-Bye!!

posted by brickman at 08:09 PM on November 03

Unfortunatley for them there is no way they're going to win either.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 09:08 PM on November 03

Remind me to look at the schedule before I open my mouth, but I will still contend that the Pats are not in for any cake-walk this week.

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 10:19 PM on November 03

Three weeks in a row was too much to ask. Final Week Nine results: ATS: 6-8 SU: 9-5 Lock of the Week: 0-1 Trifecta: 0-1 The Money Game: -$960 For the season: ATS: 68-56-5 SU: 88-42 Lock of the Week: 3-6 Trifecta: 1-8 The Money Game: $-1,540

posted by wfrazerjr at 09:59 PM on November 06

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