TCS, That may be true of mets fans (and it certainly is of royals fans), but i doubt you'll see more than the Mets fans will this year!
A writer projecting a short career for a young pitcher who just totally owned your home team in a brilliant performance wreaks of the grapes of wicked sour wrath. I don't think this is really fair. Did you read the column? Most of Ryan's column is devoted to praising Felix' skills. Sure, he was off on the number of very young major league pitchers who have gone on to have successful careers - but look at the list that Grum produced. Only TWO of those pitchers were born after 1960 (and that includes Gooden) and we're talking about twenty pitchers in over a century of baseball. While you could dispute whether you'd need one hand or four to count the names, I think Ryan made a valid point with regard to the modern game, at least. The idea that his reasoning was based on sour grapes looks a lot like a knee-jerk reaction rather than a considered opinion. That said, Felix Hernandez is finally beginning to realize his monumental potential. He is a real pleasure to watch, and I'm hoping that when the next phenom comes around, the Bob Ryans of the world are forced to say "except, of course, for Hall of Famer Felix Hernandez."
Maybe, but it's a bad bet in my book. The next no-hitter that favors the Mets fans' rooting side will be their first. They join San Diego, Colorado, and Tampa Bay as the only franchises never to have thrown one, and obviously they've gone the longest without getting one. An actuary might like their chances, but given their rotation this year, I don't (that's not a heavy bash -- I've still got them winning the division -- but it's just not a "lights out" kind of staff right now). I think it would be awesome if Glavine got one, and it goes without saying that I'd be thrilled to see Mussina or Pettitte work a gem, but rationally I think New York fans will see plenty of hits this year. Neither lineup is a good candidate to get no-hit this year, and neither has a rotation that makes you think it's just a matter of time. I'll go out on a limb and predict a Royals no-hitter -- and I'm going to walk right out to the end of that limb and say that it will be Zach Greinke in an interleague game. (Perhaps there should be a locker room thread on "Rare Feat Predictions" for the season.) All I'm going to say about Don Gullet is that he and Ron Guidry have a lot to talk about. On edit: Only TWO of those pitchers were born after 1960 I don't understand your point, given how many of the failures were born after 1960.
True, TCS - the pre-21 MLB pitcher is largely an anachronism. I still think Ryan's point, that a heavy workload early in a pitcher's career can prove an impediment to long-term success, is valid. But moreover, I don't think the point was made with malice towards Hernandez, but rather as a note of caution in an overwhelmingly celebratory column. And that was the point I was really trying to make.
I still think Ryan's point, that a heavy workload early in a pitcher's career can prove an impediment to long-term success, is valid. It doesn't seem to be. The statistical side folks suggest the tautology that heavy workloads early in a career do damage to pitchers susceptible to injury from overwork. Things like Pitcher Abuse Points seek to find a common middle ground that protects the injury-prone pitchers. While this unfairly yokes newer Clemenses and Schillings, the tradeoff is acceptable until a better method comes along.
I don't think the point was made with malice towards Hernandez No, the article doesn't bludgeon with malice, but it kind of reads like, "Man, that Felix pitched some game last night, huh? His stuff is just great. It will be such a shame when he flames out early, but he sure is an artist right now." 1 cup grapes, sour. If you want to write an article about how great a pitching performance was, write it. If you want to write a study on the career patterns of sub-21 rookies, then write that (though perhaps not the day after a sub-21 kid has just worked over the hometown team). Interjecting part of the second into the first reads out of context and bitter to me.
