Those numbers are interesting, but my gut reaction is that they're a little deceptive. The common baseball theory is that every team is going to win 50 and lose 50 games -- it's what you do in those remaining 62 games that matters. I wonder, if you assumed this to be true, what the dollars per win totals would be if you only counted those over 50. Of course, this challenges not only how much time you REALLY have, but whether or not you are willing to make a follow-up post that IS baseball related (why on Earth anybody would have to apologize for writing about baseball is totally beyond me...).
I did it. Too much time. Conceded. I'll just post a digest here: CLE: $965,174 (per win over 50) MIL: $1,288,220 OAK: $1,458,572 TOR: $1,523,983 CWS: $1,534,244 ... TAM: $1,745,827 ... BOS: $2,744,558 ... CHC: $3,001,135 NYM: $3,069,873 ... DET: $3,290,095 SFG: $3,607,980 SEA: $4,618,649 NYY: $4,629,040 KCR: $6,146,833
It's time for MLB to begin the contraction process, starting with the Marlins and any other team that maintains a payroll under 60 million. That's the dumbest thing I've heard yet.
Obviously I went to bed too early. Nice numbers BPP. It still shows the Indians and Brewers did more with less. Personally, I'd love to see more equality in baseball, but I don't believe it will suddenly make the Rays contenders. Some organizations are just better at putting together a team that wins.
Thanks ?! and BPP, but I wasn't being self-deprecatory, only asking myself why I was bothering to correct a poster with only one comment. Then I checked and saw he had six. So I stand corrected there too! That's a pretty nifty analysis, BPP. I like it.
That is a pretty cool metric since it blames bad teams and overspenders equally. It'd be nice if the Lahman database contained salaries for players (I'm assuming it doesn't, but I haven't looked at it in a year or two) so you could run this historically. You'd have to adjust it to something like dollars per win over 50 divided by average team salary to account for the increase in overall salaries.
On the incremental salary cost per win metrics, it should be noted (and I know certain authors have looked at this issue) that the next step in the analysis is whether the incremental win is worth the cost spent. And in that regard, not all wins are created equal. The win that pushes a team into the playoffs is worth a lot more (in terms of additional revenues) than other wins. I know that's a different analysis than the pure incremental cost/win (over the 50 games a team of replacement-level players would presumably win), but it's another wrinkle to consider.
Is that meaningful data? The next step would be to assign additional value to wins over division opponents as they get you closer to winning your division, though the Wild Card probably makes that moot (and the idea of measuring the value of wins in re: qualifiying for the playoffs at all seems hard to do). Why is the 90th win more valuable than the 1st? You need one to get the other and the only thing special about the 90th win is that the game was scheduled later in the year. With the advent of the Wild Card, I can't see meaningful differences between wins.