FanDuel - WFBC

August 04, 2014

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle:

A place to discuss the sports stories that aren't making news, share links that aren't quite front-page material, and diagram plays on your hand. Remember to count to five Mississippi before commenting in anger.

posted by huddle to general at 06:00 AM - 12 comments

The overvaluation of QB security continues.

posted by Bonkers at 10:52 AM on August 04

The overvaluation of QB security continues.

I disagree (but reserve the right to withdraw that comment when the guaranteed vs. incentive-based numbers are released). I think Dalton is more than a "secure" quarterback. The Bengals are a franchise that has been on the rise consistently since Dalton joined the team. Yes, his playoff numbers are bad at this point. But when he was drafted, who would have predicted that he would have led the team to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons, winning the division twice? I think the contract tells him that the job is his for the foreseeable future, but doesn't lock the Bengals into a bad deal if he continues to trip over his dick in the playoffs.

posted by tahoemoj at 11:20 AM on August 04

It really depends on what the guaranteed dollars are. I suppose Dalton might have gotten that in free agency from a desperate cellar dweller, but it seems really high.

posted by yerfatma at 01:28 PM on August 04

It really depends on what the guaranteed dollars are.

La Canfora reports that all of the fully guaranteed money comes in the first year of the deal. Dalton will make $18 million guaranteed this season and will make $22 million by next February.

Beyond that, the contract is essentially pay as you [go].

Front-loading it like that makes sense, but not to $18M worth in a single year.

posted by Etrigan at 02:38 PM on August 04

Wonder what a Bubby Brister in his prime would be worth right now. I'll bet he does too.

posted by beaverboard at 02:39 PM on August 04

I don't really get all of the Dalton hate (maybe doubt is a better word?). The dude took a team that was in shambles to three consecutive playoffs in his first three years in the league. Yes, I understand that he stunk the place out pretty bad on two of those three trips, but he wasn't the only Bengal to do so. His regular season numbers are inconsistent, but are spectacular when he is on.

Compare him to Drew Brees' first 3 year regular season totals (not counting 2001, when Brees started 1 game):

Brees: 42 games; 55 TD; 38 INT; 14 fumbles--Chargers record 24-24

Dalton: 48 games; 80 TD; 49 INT; 15 fumbles--Bengals record 30-18

So why does everyone doubt that Dalton has a hell of an upside entering his 4th year?

posted by tahoemoj at 04:42 PM on August 04

Insightful.

posted by tahoemoj at 05:46 PM on August 04

I don't really get all of the Dalton hate (maybe doubt is a better word?).

"Doubt" is a much better word. Here's your conveniently-timed answer.

"Among the 34 quarterbacks with 500 or more dropbacks over this three-year stretch, the average passer's QBR was cut by more than half (52.4 percent) when he was either hassled or hit by a pass-rusher. Dalton is not so lucky. Already just a league-average quarterback when nobody's bothering him, Dalton's QBR under duress falls to a lowly 11.1, a drop of 81.4 percent. That leaves him as the fifth-most stressed by pressure, and the four guys in front of him don't make for a bright future[.]"

posted by yerfatma at 07:10 PM on August 04

"Doubt" is a much better word. Here's your conveniently-timed answer.

Nailed it.

It's not that Andy Dalton is a terrible QB, it's that he's an average one at best. Which isn't bad as a QB, but he shouldn't be the the 8th highest paid QB in the NFL (tied with Tony Romo, who also shouldn't be paid that much).

It goes back to an idea I sorta advanced here, that the NFL is throwing elite money at average QBs for reasons that don't relate much to how they actually produce on the field. Dalton may end up being awesome (I don't think so, but I'd like to be pleasantly surprised), or he may end up sucking worse than the Danny Wuerffel). More likely he ends up just being average, though, which is a problem when the teams are loading this money up for average.

posted by Bonkers at 08:57 PM on August 04

The most terrifying away trips in Australia.

/Not that terrifying really. My 85 year old mother takes the bus past Brookvale Oval most days. She hates Manly with the passion that only true North Sydney supporters can muster. They also left off the Sydney Cricket Ground in the 70s, formidable during an Ashes Test or the first few years of day/night games when the crowd on The Hill was very, very drunk and violent. Formative experiences for a young fella.

posted by owlhouse at 09:34 PM on August 04

Compare him to Drew Brees' first 3 year regular season totals

Drew Brees didn't win a playoff game until his 6th season in the NFL. Dalton is entering his 4th. Dalton is a completely different QB than Brees but don't write him off yet.

posted by cixelsyd at 09:44 PM on August 04

Dalton is a completely different QB than Brees but don't write him off yet.

Agreed. The point of my comparison was that some quarterbacks don;t fully hit their stride for a few years. Dalton has had more success that Brees at this point, and whatever needs to click for him to win some playoff games might just click this year.

posted by tahoemoj at 02:12 PM on August 05

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