April 20, 2006

NHL Playoffs Confidence Pool: You loved it at the Olympics and at the World Baseball Classic. It's back. With a vengeance.

posted by qbert72 to fantasy at 01:37 AM - 81 comments

So it's the same deal as usual: award points, 16 to 1, to each team entering the playoffs. You get the points you awarded to a team each time it wins. Highest total gets to moon grum@work. But wait! There's more! DrJohnEvans and I loved confidence pools so much, we decided to buy the company. We built a web site to manage them. So you can enter your picks right here, and follow along over there as results come in. You can even start your own confidence pool, and manage it yourself. How about that? I'm looking at you, NBA and World Cup fanatics! Offer valid while supplies last. You will find bugs.

posted by qbert72 at 01:44 AM on April 20

Nice work guys. I like the fact you can't see other people's picks. This way I won't be able make picks based on where I think DrJohn went wrong. Or use grum's picks to rank the teams I can't decide on.

posted by njsk8r20 at 06:10 AM on April 20

That's actually configurable per pool. You could also start a pool where the picks are viewable as soon as they come in. And since you can edit your picks, a participant could try to fool everyone with a bogus pick until the deadline. Much fun either way!

posted by qbert72 at 06:48 AM on April 20

Bravo on setting up the confidence pool generator. Now all you need is SI or ESPN to buy you guys out and you'll be set!

posted by grum@work at 07:10 AM on April 20

My picks will be made after work hours today. Thanks for doing all the leg work guys.

posted by HATER 187 at 07:43 AM on April 20

You two are awesome. Big ups to Q and DJE for setting up yet another chance for me to drift tantalizingly close to ultimate victory, only to settle for the inevitable defeat. Goddamn Jose Thoedore. Fuck. When are you guys going to post the official SpoFi hockey pool results? I have a lot of trash talking to answer to.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:25 AM on April 20

Okay, grum found out the only text field without a length limit. Yay me! It's fixed now, and I have added the trash talk on the pool's home page, so it actually serves a purpose. When are you guys going to post the official SpoFi hockey pool results? I have a lot of trash talking to answer to. Well, you know, since I won the damn the thing, it would be bad form for me to post the results. That, and I've been busy with the confidence pool thingie. But I'm dying to talk trash here.

posted by qbert72 at 08:41 AM on April 20

This is very cool. Thanks guys. If I may politely make two suggestions: 1). If you type too much into the trash talk box, could the picks remain? As it is, the picks all default back to Anaheim when you get the error from typing too much in the trash talk box. 2). Could you remove a team from the below drop down lists when you pick them? I accidentally picked Ottawa twice when I meant to pick Philly one of those times. Thanks again guys. Smashing job.

posted by NoMich at 09:03 AM on April 20

I'm in agreement with your suggestions, NoMich. They're going to have to wait a bit, though. I still have a lot of more basic things to do. Thanks for the feedback!

posted by qbert72 at 09:19 AM on April 20

Hey, take your time. We should be viewing this particular confidence pool as the beta testing time.

posted by NoMich at 09:40 AM on April 20

Oh it's beta time all right... I'm going to beta all your asses at this despite knowing nothing whatsoever about hockey. Failing that, I may settle for letting the competition teach me something about hockey (and for having a reason to follow what's going on). Go the Red Wings of Detroit!

posted by JJ at 10:11 AM on April 20

Sweet. I second NoMich's second suggestion -- I had ranked 14 teams and I couldn't remember who I had left. My memory isn't what it used to be.

posted by mkn at 10:12 AM on April 20

Failing that, I may settle for letting the competition teach me something about hockey Ok JJ, first of all, get off the Detroit bandwagon. And to add to NoMich's suggestion, I like to alternate my picking, first I started with the top two then picked the bottom two, so on and so forth till I made all of my picks. And perhaps all the pull downs could start off blank. It kind of confused me a bit near the end because I couldn't tell which spot I meant to put Anaheim in and which spots I wanted to change.

posted by njsk8r20 at 10:31 AM on April 20

great work guys. now we need an automatic Costanza generator coded into it.

posted by gspm at 01:36 PM on April 20

Ha! That's a great idea, gspm. We could have the system tell the best and worst possible picks at any time during the tournament. It's noted. Thanks for all the suggestions, people. Keep 'em coming!

posted by qbert72 at 02:25 PM on April 20

I think we should add porn to it, too.

posted by NoMich at 02:29 PM on April 20

Well, we will need revenue at some point, so there.

posted by qbert72 at 03:12 PM on April 20

I just noticed this: © 2006 qbert72, DrJohnEvans, njsk8r, Broche à foin So I guess since I was totally useless with the code, I'll have to fork over some cash.

posted by njsk8r20 at 03:45 PM on April 20

I made a typo in your user name. Sorry, man, it was getting late. It will be fixed in the next update. And the goons are on their way to collect your money.

posted by qbert72 at 04:38 PM on April 20

Oh no! Not again.

posted by njsk8r20 at 05:04 PM on April 20

SpoFi Confidence Confidence Pool Yes, that's right. Maybe you don't know your hockey, but you think you know who does? Now you can show your fellow SpoFites who YOU think has the inside track on Confidence picking. All Confidence entrants to this point have been included -- sorry to those who got here late, but frankly any more than 26 people would have been even MORE confusing. Points in this pool will be calculated by a formula that puts my picks first...

posted by BullpenPro at 10:56 AM on April 21

You're crazy. By the way, it looks like I have a small date problem in the app. Working on it right now.

posted by qbert72 at 11:17 AM on April 21

OK, it's fixed now, I calculated the GMT time difference the wrong way round. The playoffs start at 23:00 in Greenwich, for those who care. And thanks for helping us test, BullpenPro. You'll be in a world of pain soon, though, as you won't be able to enter points per se, but only game results between SpoFi members. You can always make it work, though. Now I need to finish this thing if someone else is using it. Damn it. On second thought, that was part of the plan.

posted by qbert72 at 11:25 AM on April 21

qbert72 - I didn't mean to put you to work. And having no idea how this thing would/could be administrated, I wasn't certain it would work. From your comment, I'm guessing I can't just enter current standings as a win total (e.g. 26 "wins" for the person leading and so on down the line), and then adjust as we go (with some "teams" obviously having "wins" reduced along the way)? Can I just update once when the original confidence pool is over? If this is just a totally impractical setup, feel free to ditch it and we can write it off as a test of the system. I figured just making the picks would be entertaining enough for the masses... Please don't kill yourself just to get my silly idea workable -- that certainly wasn't the intent.

posted by BullpenPro at 11:39 AM on April 21

Well, your use case is not too far off from one we may wish to cover, e.g. standings used instead of results accumulated. I'm keeping it in mind. It probably won't be ready in time for your confidence confidence pool, but I could probably enter fake game results programmatically at the end, if you want to go through with it. (I like silly ideas like yours.) I think it would be better if you opened your pool after all the participants have entered in the original confidence pool, though. It wouldn't matter much if a few games had passed, really.

posted by qbert72 at 11:51 AM on April 21

You are totally confusing me on how your points scoring is supposed to work BullpenPro. The way I see it the winner of the original pool gets 26 wins, so if I pick them to win (rank them 26) then I would get 676 pts. Right? I think it's kind of a cool idea. But not only would you want to pick who you think knows thier hockey, but also if those who don't are lucky. Very interesting indeed.

posted by njsk8r20 at 12:02 PM on April 21

I think it would be better if you opened your pool after all the participants have entered in the original confidence pool, though. It wouldn't matter much if a few games had passed, really. I guess that's true -- can I reconfigure the pool at this point, or do I have to start over? Also, I haven't received any e-mails at all from either pool. Should I have by now?

posted by BullpenPro at 12:04 PM on April 21

Emails are not working yet. My bad on this. I've put the pool back into setup mode for you. I had to remove the public address, so your link above will 404, but your admin URL will still work.

posted by qbert72 at 01:15 PM on April 21

My... huh? See, this is going to help you a lot, I think. You probably have an eye on idiot-proofing the system. And I'm just the idiot to help you. For example, I had no idea I even owned an "admin URL." I thought admin info would be supplied in the subsequent e-mail -- are you sure I have an admin URL? How do I get that?

posted by BullpenPro at 01:34 PM on April 21

Thanks for all the help, BullpenPro, really. The system is always the idiot. Never its users. Just emailed you the admin URL.

posted by qbert72 at 01:53 PM on April 21

Nope. I really am the idiot. The site even tells me what the admin URL is, and tells me to make a note of it. Sorry for the oversight, and thanks for the link.

posted by BullpenPro at 02:02 PM on April 21

Re: trashtalk Chicobangs, I'm not sure, but judging from how bad we did in the last two confidence pools, you better go get a fresh can too. And you better hurry, only a couple of hours left. Drop the puck, it's time to go! Ok, so it's a Bruins' song, I still like it anyway.

posted by njsk8r20 at 03:58 PM on April 21

Yeah, yeah, I know. I bought a case of the stuff, and now it's just going bad under the sink in my kitchen. Hey, can you add Maggie's picks to the mix?

posted by chicobangs at 04:03 PM on April 21

Well, if my history in sports pools maintains its well established nadir, y'all can at least have the pleasure of opening up those cans on me if they haven't gone flat. I'm hoping to see the Wings pound the Avs into the Ice for old time's sake this year.

posted by ursus_comiter at 04:19 PM on April 21

May I vent in here? @#$% Dishnetwork and OLN! Even though I have the Center Ice package I'm only getting 2 of the 4 games being played tonight. Guess which 2 I'm not getting. That's right, the ones on @#$% OLN.

posted by njsk8r20 at 05:19 PM on April 21

sk8tr20, at least you don't have to listen to OLN's fucking announcers. They're brutal.

posted by Samsonov14 at 06:23 PM on April 21

Okay, I had some troubles with the latest update to the site, but everything seems to be working now. You can now see everybody's picks. This will be fun, folks!

posted by qbert72 at 06:33 PM on April 21

Actually, now that I'm watching the DET-EDM game, I'm pretty sure that's Andy Brickley commentating. He's not bad.

posted by Samsonov14 at 06:40 PM on April 21

SpoFi collective picks rank-team-avg pts 16) Detroit - 14.18 15) Ottowa - 13.30 14) Dallas - 11.94 13) Carolina - 11.67 12) New Jersey - 11.36 11) Calgary - 11.30 10) San Jose - 10.18 9) Buffalo - 9.39 8) Philadelphia - 7.27 7) New York Rangers - 6.97 6) Nashville - 6.15 5) Anaheim - 5.70 4) Colorado - 5.24 3) Montreal - 5.09 2) Tampa Bay - 3.27 1) Edmonton - 2.97 All right, I beat grum to it!

posted by njsk8r20 at 06:55 PM on April 21

Holy cow, Cherry's suit is so loud, Maclean was literally shouting over it.

posted by chicobangs at 07:07 PM on April 21

I'm gung ho for Buffalo!

posted by qbert72 at 07:37 PM on April 21

3 pp goals by the Predators in the first period, San Jose needs to stay out of the penalty box.

posted by njsk8r20 at 07:51 PM on April 21

I'm also gaga for Tampa! By the way, for those wondering, MadMat is my brother. He's not a member here, but he wanted to check out the app, so he entered his picks. If you don't mind, he'd like to stick 'til the end. We can ignore him for our prestigious trophies.

posted by qbert72 at 08:02 PM on April 21

Sorry, qbert, I can't abide by that. What, he's too good to hang out here? Get him in here, fergodsake!

posted by chicobangs at 08:57 PM on April 21

Sorry I didn't get my picks in. I was pretty busy tonight.

posted by Jeff Friesen at 01:10 AM on April 22

Since we are waiting on results, I got bored and created my own leaderboard.

posted by njsk8r20 at 10:22 AM on April 22

Thanks for covering my ass, njsk8r20. I'll put some time on the results tonight, hopefully enough to get them working. Also, once everything is up and running, DrJohnEvans and myself will gladly welcome any help for entering results. You can volunteer by sending me email (see my profile). Jeff Friesen: you scored a goal last night! You're so clutch! Also, if you want to change your "I'll definitely change those later" picks, just notify me, you have special privileges.

posted by qbert72 at 12:41 PM on April 22

Check my leaderboard, I took the liberty of changing it for him.

posted by njsk8r20 at 02:16 PM on April 22

Updated Leaderboard.

posted by njsk8r20 at 05:15 PM on April 22

*sigh* Curse southerners who don't own computers. I did enjoy Kentucky though so I guess that is ok.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:38 PM on April 22

You were in Kentucky YYM? Why didn't you tell me? I like it here myself. It's a nice slow pace and it's not that crowded. And despite the rumors, there are not any toothless wife beating rednecks here, at least not in western Kentucky anyway.

posted by njsk8r20 at 09:16 PM on April 22

Stupid stats about this confidence pool:

  • There are 20,922,789,888,000 different combinations of team orders. That's over 20 trillion. If you were to make 100 selections a second, it would take you over 6630 years to finish.
  • The maximum score anyone could get is 1180 points. That assumes you pick every team correctly, that all series go 7 games, and match-ups each round always involve teams from the top half of your remaining selections versus the bottom half.
  • The minimum score you can end up with is 200. That would require that all "worst" teams in your rankings face your "best" teams each round, and sweep them.
  • Assuming an average series length (5.5 games) and a random distribution selection of teams, then the average score for this confidence pool is 701.25.

posted by grum@work at 10:49 PM on April 22

That BUF PHI game last night was one hell of a game. woo! Thank god, cause the other three tonight were washouts.

posted by mkn at 12:29 AM on April 23

We were about ten watching the OT, and we all 'oooh'-ed in unison when Campbell nailed Umberger. That was a Scott Stevens quality hit.

posted by qbert72 at 01:48 AM on April 23

Bugger. I've been out in the jungles of Sri Lanka for the last 4 days and missed this. And by the time I get home I would have had the southern hemisphere title all wrapped up. Sort of.

posted by owlhouse at 02:53 AM on April 23

You were in Kentucky YYM? Yeah I guess I forgot to write something here though. We were in Beverly, Kentucky which is somewhat near the Tennessee border.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:19 AM on April 23

I'm taking notes: allow for late registrations. I'd need to change the model somewhat, but I think it's a "must have". In the meantime, if nobody objects, you can post your picks here and I'll add them manually. I'd leave you until the Monday evening game.

posted by qbert72 at 11:28 AM on April 23

Qbert you are my favor..... one of my favorite people right now (had to rephrase that since I've already hurt yerfatma's feelings once). And for those of you who may object, I'm basing my picks on my personal opinion and not at all on the games that have already been played. 16-Detroit 15-Ottawa 14-Calgary 13-New York 12-Dallas 11-Montreal 10-San Jose 9-Buffalo 8-Carolina 7-New Jersey 6-Anaheim 5-Nashville 4-Colorado 3-Philadelphia 2-Tampa Bay 1-Edmonton

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 11:54 AM on April 23

I just got back from Nashville. Woo-Hoo! I'm no longer a playoff game virgin. Now I can say I've been there, done that, and I got the T-shirt (for only $26). Too bad the Predators couldn't pull out a win for me. Well anyway, I updated the backup leaderboard.

posted by njsk8r20 at 06:10 PM on April 23

Thank you very much for letting me join the pool. In an unrelated question, when looking at a map of Kentucky, two cities caught my eye. Paint Lick and Slate Lick. I was just wondering if you've been to them (or near Manchester since I was near there).

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:39 PM on April 23

No, I just moved out here (Owensboro) last year. Never heard of those, but driving through Ohio I saw a sign for a town called French Lick. In an unsportsrelated topic, the International BBQ festival is coming up. Mmmmm, I'm getting hungry just thinking about it.

posted by njsk8r20 at 07:03 PM on April 23

Well anyway, I updated the backup leaderboard. Thanks for taking care of this, njsk8r. This weekend I watched some games for a change. Man, that 6-1 Hurricanes drubbing felt nice. I'm back at it tomorrow, and it's a matter of days before the standings are working.

posted by qbert72 at 10:12 PM on April 23

I saw a sign for a town called French Lick Even I know that French Lick, Indiana is Larry Bird's home town. Thanks for the late opportunity to join: 16 Detroit 15 New York 14 Calgary 13 Ottawa 12 Dallas 11 Carolina 10 New Jersey 9 San Jose 8 Buffalo 7 Philly 6 Nashville 5 Colorado 4 Anaheim 3 Montreal 2 Edmonton 1 Tampa Bay Ice Rays

posted by owlhouse at 08:31 AM on April 24

Damn, that was in Indiana, not Ohio. It's easy to mix them up after you have been driving for 14 hours. Who is Larry Bird, is he like the Crocodile Hunter or something? Ok, I'm off to the bar to watch the NJ/NYR game. The backup leaderboard has been updated.

posted by njsk8r20 at 05:32 PM on April 24

Man, there have been some great games. Game 2 in the TB-Ott series was great, and game 2 tonight between the Habs and Canes was super. Though, being a Calgary fan, ugh. From what I saw from them in game 2 they don't look like they are in good shape. And anytime they get behind 1-0 I get worried. Seems like they have a lot of trouble getting even two goals. Beyond the Habs, there are two teams that must be going home for games 3 and 4 in high spirits - Anaheim and Edmonton. They both lost game 1 in OT and went on to win game 2 outright so they both got the split of the first two games on the road they would have been seeking - and did so with perhaps regret that they aren't actually up 2-0. They must both be brimming with confidence heading home.

posted by gspm at 10:40 PM on April 24

Fucking A, Baby Huet, that 'Canes-Habs game was wicked good.

posted by HATER 187 at 07:39 AM on April 25

Fuck this Canes/Habs series. I would be more into if the fucking Canes would actually play like they want to be there. "Yeah, you guys in the white sweaters with the big C on them. Yeah you. We'll just be over here in the corner dry-humping each other. You go ahead and play the games without us until our ecstasy pills wear off."

posted by NoMich at 12:46 PM on April 25

NoMich - last night was a heart-breaker for sure. But, buck up - Staal played his mind out, Brind'amour was strong - even Cam Ward played well in the third and OT. They just look snake-bitten to me. They can't do enough. And the defense is being exposed. But this is what happened to the Detroits, Colorados, Ottawas and New Jerseys when they first developed their core of good young players and had their really good regular seasons. You take the 1st round upsets and the playoff lumps and THEN you get the wisdom and go win the Cups. Even if Carolina loses this series, think of the vengeance they'll carry into next year. That core group of players isn't going anywhere.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 01:30 PM on April 25

Despite the loss, NoMich, that building last night was really rockin'. I expect season ticket numbers to take a jump next year. Is 18,730 a sellout?

posted by DrJohnEvans at 01:40 PM on April 25

that building last night was really rockin' Wait until you hear Bell Centre tomorrow night. Have we got playoff fever or what? What's with coaches pulling goalies so quickly? Weekes in net for the Rangers yesterday, Gerber getting the hook after one period? You have to show confidence in your #1 guy if you want him to rebound. I've never been a fan of alternating goalies in the playoffs, although the 'canes reached the finals that way. Esche had to be pulled, though. What a massacre. Gotta love the Buffalo fans for chanting "USA! USA! USA!" to him (in reference to his selection over Ryan Miller's).

posted by qbert72 at 01:58 PM on April 25

Doc: yeah, I think that is a sellout, plus a few more. Maybe? As for us rockin' the house, yes, I have no voice today. I'm sure that is the case with 18,629 other people in the Triangle as well. As far as Gerber is concerned, I've heard from several folks (who would know) that Gerber had a really bad stomach ailment over the weekend. Apparently he was on an IV all weekend and lost 14 pounds.

posted by NoMich at 02:25 PM on April 25

Speaking of the Habs...

posted by DrJohnEvans at 02:29 PM on April 25

OLN back on Dishnetwork OLN was switched back on in time for last night’s New York Rangers-New Jersey Devils playoff. Would have been nice of Dishnetwork to tell me before I left for the bar.

posted by njsk8r20 at 02:45 PM on April 25

Speaking of OLN, they are changing their name to Versus. sk8r: did you have a good time at the playoff game in Nashville?

posted by NoMich at 02:53 PM on April 25

Versus? Uh, sure. Okay. Given their changes in programming, alright. Also if they're going to make a run at being ESPN Lite, then why not.

posted by chicobangs at 03:52 PM on April 25

Yes I did. They were giving out pom poms as you walked in so I was hootin and hollerin and waving the pom poms as if I were a real Preds fan. The fans were really behind Mason which was cool. It did get pretty quiet though after they were down 0-3. There was a small incident on my way to the game that pissed me off, but once the game got started I forgot all about it. Pics and the story are in Sunday's transcripts of campfire. I've also gussied up the backup leaderboard, which I will continue to update even after qbert gets the standings working. Just because it gives me something to do.

posted by njsk8r20 at 05:45 PM on April 25

I've also gussied up the backup leaderboard Very nice for a "backup leaderboard!" Thanks.

posted by tselson at 12:50 PM on April 26

The SpoFi collective picks have changed to include our two late additions. rank-team-avg pts 16) Detroit 14.29 15) Ottowa 13.34 14) Dallas 11.94 13) Carolina 11.54 12) Calgary 11.46 11) New Jersey 11.2 10) San Jose 10.14 9) Buffalo 9.34 8) New York Rangers 7.37 7) Philadelphia 7.14 6) Nashville 6.11 5) Anaheim 5.66 4) Colorado* 5.2 3) Montreal* 5.2 2) Tampa Bay 3.17 1) Edmonton 2.89 *Colorado had one more win in the regular season standings to win the tie breaker.

posted by njsk8r20 at 09:37 PM on April 26

It's spelled wid an "a", eh? Oddawa. Oddawa. Geddit right or'll Big Joe be comin' yer way. Or Big Zed. Y'h'know, whadever.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 12:05 AM on April 27

Who's is the motorcycle? It's not a motorcycle, it's a chopper! Who's is the chopper? It's Zed's. Who is Zed? Zed is dead babe... Zed is dead! Sorry DrJ, my bad. Ottawa, Ottawa, once more with feeling, Ottawa. Please don't make me write it on the blackboard 500 times.

posted by njsk8r20 at 06:09 AM on April 27

You gotta support the team. (video and sound)

posted by njsk8r20 at 11:47 AM on April 29

You're not logged in. Please log in or register.