dios's profile

Falcons QB Michael Vick Indicted on Federal Charges;

Vick is screwed. A couple of things: 1. While an indictment doesn't mean guilty and other big name athletes have escaped conviction, those points ignore the key under-lying fact here: this is a federal indictment. The old adage about how one can indict a ham sandwich is a comment on the indicting process. It is not a comment on the likelihood of conviction. If this was state court (where OJ and Ray, etc were tried), the indictment would be less important and the prosecutors vastly less talented. But this is federal court. Federal prosecutors don't proceed with indictments until they know they will get a conviction. The conviction rate is above 95% of those who are indicted. Given that the indictment included the testimony of at least four cooperating witnesses that federal prosecutor thought was strong enough to bring before the grand jury, coupled with the fact that one or more of the other three guys will likely roll on Vick as he is the main target, that 95% conviction rate is probably up towards the 99.5% conviction rate. And he is in the rocket docket in federal court in Richmond, so the defense won't be able to use delay tactics to build a defense or drag it out. And everything about federal court is worse for him: more competent prosecutors, stricter judges, more prosecution-friendly procedural rules, more prosecution-friendly jury pools, and on and on. In short, this indictment means a whole hell of a lot. There is at least a 95% chance he is convicted. 2. The federal law he was charged under falls under the RICO statute. That this is under federal law and not state law further increases the likelihood of jail time.. Whereas the state case would be whether he broke the dog fighting statute, under Federal Law, the issue is gambling on an illegal activity. Suddenly, the same act which would just be dog-fighting under state law, becomes racketeering, gambling, mail fraud, income tax invasion, criminal acts across state lines, involvement in a racketeer influenced corrupt organization, and a host of other federal crimes that all up the ante. Because he is being charged with conspiracy as well and being charged under racketeering statutes, he can be criminally liable for anything that was done by his co-conspirators or this organization run out of his property. 3. Do not rule out the possibility of further indictments against him. _____ This guy is hosed. Whether he plays football again is the least of his concerns. He is facing a near certainty of jail fines and enormous fines.

posted by dios at 10:28 AM on July 18, 2007