Recent Comments by rcade

SportsFilter: The Saturday Huddle

To say that the writer is rejecting logic is to not understand the unique circumstances of this game.

There's nothing unique about football that makes statistics irrelevant. Coaches use statistics all the time to make decisions, such as the chart they use to decide when to go for two after a touchdown.

It's one thing to say that on that fourth-and-2, the statistics should be ignored because of other factors. But the dismissal of statistics entirely -- as if they didn't matter at all -- is the kind of stupidity that helped Oakland A's GM Billy Beane outperform his peers for a decade.

One of the things that makes Belichick special as a coach is that he's coldly rational about the game. He doesn't let emotion drive his decisions. The more I learn about what he did that night, the more I like it1. The safe move was to punt, but he decided the smart move was to go for it, no matter how it would look if they failed to convert.

1. And I say that as someone who dislikes Belichick.

posted by rcade at 01:44 PM on November 21

Brett Favre Mic'd Up

This video's funny, but I'd like to see whether he's still a big ol' kid out there when things aren't going well. Detroit makes glad the heart of many opponents.

His love for smacking asses is so very Pop Warner football.

I find it ironic that ass-smackers can practice their love for each other so openly while gay players in the NFL are afraid of coming out.

posted by rcade at 09:41 AM on November 21

SportsFilter: The Saturday Huddle

Bill Simmons piles on Belichick, even though he acknowledges the percentages were in Belichick's favor. "Statistics can't capture the uniqueness of a particular moment," he writes. Ugh. It's painful to see him reject logic so brazenly.

posted by rcade at 08:54 AM on November 21

SportsFilter: The Saturday Huddle

Clippers broadcasters suspended for remarks about the first Iranian NBA player, Hamed Haddadi.

posted by rcade at 08:50 AM on November 21

Oregon Ducks Smell Roses

I left off a link. Here's where they are meddling with the primal forces of nature:

Earlier this week, a music video for the song "I Love My Ducks" by the student group "Supwitchugirl" created widespread Internet buzz. The video opens with three university seniors in a rose garden, singing, "I smell roses."

The band received kudos from Kelly and the video was quickly shared among the players to a positive reaction.

Poor fools.

posted by rcade at 09:09 PM on November 20

AP Columnist: 'Soccer Players Can't Be Trusted'

Let's not get carried away here.

posted by rcade at 03:30 PM on November 20

AP Columnist: 'Soccer Players Can't Be Trusted'

If what Henry did was cheating, then pretty much every player in team sports cheats.

No one is disputing that a lot of small cheating goes on. But what Henry did -- and the consequences of it -- were huge enough that the president of his country was asked to weigh in on the matter.

posted by rcade at 02:51 PM on November 20

AP Columnist: 'Soccer Players Can't Be Trusted'

The article says that Dunne confirmed that Henry said the words "I cheated" to him and it was shown by TV cameras. Other press accounts make the same claim. What he meant by the word is open to interpretation, but if he used the word it's good enough for me.

posted by rcade at 12:44 PM on November 20

SportsFilter: The Friday Huddle

Apologies if this was linked earlier, but it's like one of those old Matt Christopher kids books come to life: The Coach Who Never Punts.

posted by rcade at 11:49 AM on November 20

AP Columnist: 'Soccer Players Can't Be Trusted'

It's a pretty sad testament to sportsmanship in soccer that people find it unthinkable that Henry might admit the handball to a ref in the aftermath of the goal.

Why should he do it? Because he was wrong in the heat of the moment to play the ball off his hand, and at this point it's clear he's marred his reputation and embarrassed his country. So instead of being known for doing something shocking and admitting his mistake while it could be corrected, he's got this albatross around his neck.

posted by rcade at 11:21 AM on November 20

SportsFilter: The Friday Huddle

Most idiotic trick play ever ... but it worked.

posted by rcade at 10:54 AM on November 20

Supreme Court Refuses to Take Redskins Case

From seeing the threads here I definitely wouldn't use it again but I wouldn't have thought anything of it's usage a few years ago. I'm mostly frustrated with how something becomes a slur. What does it take?

When Washington changed its mascot to Redskins in 1933, there had been more than a century in which Americans talked about Native Americans like this: The Danger of Employing Redskins as Movie Actors. It didn't become a slur. It was a slur from the first time it was used.

posted by rcade at 10:17 AM on November 20

Entire Wedding Party Wearing Ravens Jerseys

I agree with your point, Demophon, but I'm surprised you bothered to respond on that blog. All of the snarky sports blogs trying to be Deadspin bore the hell out of me.

posted by rcade at 08:57 AM on November 20

Entire Wedding Party Wearing Ravens Jerseys

I thought it was fun. Those jerseys are atrocious, but people who are dorks ought to be able to express that at their wedding, whatever their interests may be. I'm a big fan of Trekkers who say their vows in Klingon.

posted by rcade at 08:39 AM on November 20

Stephanie Spielman Dies of Cancer

The issue with mammograms is whether the benefits outweigh the risks. For women in their 40s, more than 1,900 women have to be screened for an entire decade to save a single life. This doesn't mean that all women should be treated the same -- a woman with history of cancer in her family should be screened earlier in life -- but I think it's proper for medical experts to assess the efficacy of programs like this to ensure that resources are allocated properly and patients and doctors are informed.

I don't know Spielman's history, but once she found a suspicious lump in her breast, I don't think that an insurance company would have denied the tests necessary to ensure that it wasn't cancer. That's a separate issue from whether all women should get yearly mammograms in their 30s or 40s.

posted by rcade at 08:32 AM on November 20

Entire Wedding Party Wearing Ravens Jerseys

I'm a little surprised that no one on this sports blog is charmed by this.

posted by rcade at 07:52 PM on November 19

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

I personally saw none of it, so I am either obtuse or hang out with a different crowd.

Move down to Jacksonville and listen to our sports radio. It's a wonder any of the local hosts have wives, girlfriends or daughters.

posted by rcade at 07:18 PM on November 19

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

Regardless of her playing the gender card, I still think it played bigger in the sports media because female athletes were involved. A lot of male sports fans love to mock female sports, and this gave them a golden opportunity to do so.

posted by rcade at 06:13 PM on November 19

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

You've moved the goalposts, THX. First you said "I'm calling B.S. on the argument that this incident garnered more publicity because it was a woman who did it" (emphasis mine). Now it's "nobody can say with any degree of certainty that the hype is because she is a woman."

posted by rcade at 05:45 PM on November 19

Entire Wedding Party Wearing Ravens Jerseys

That reminds me of Steve Guttenberg's character from Diner, who wouldn't marry his fiance unless she could pass a test on the history of the Baltimore Colts.

posted by rcade at 05:40 PM on November 19

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

Females don't respond in the same manner and this wacko took advantage of that fact.

That's a pretty sexist statement. Female athletes in sports like soccer and basketball do not shy away from physical play. Anyone who had "corrected" Lambert's dirty play would have risked a yellow or red card in a conference playoff game.

posted by rcade at 05:13 PM on November 19

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle

I'm calling B.S. on the argument that this incident garnered more publicity because it was a woman who did it.

How many times have you seen a men's college athlete in a sport that gets no love from ESPN making news for atrocious sportsmanship? I think the gender absolutely was a factor in making the Loco Lobo famous.

posted by rcade at 04:17 PM on November 19

Titans Owner Bud Adams Flips Off the Bills

Good post, Dyams. Anyone who has attended an NFL game knows there are some belligerent jerks in the crowd. But Adams' dumb stunt encourages more of it by legitimizing the behavior.

The Jags have a public service announcement before games that lets fans know there's a code of conduct and they can be expelled for breaking it. I'll bet the Titans do as well. Adams did something that's grounds for removal from his own stadium.

posted by rcade at 09:16 AM on November 19

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

I'm not a college hoops fan, but I think the odd tipoff times are a good way to spark some enthusiasm for the start of the season. If I was living near one of these games I'd be tempted to go.

posted by rcade at 01:31 PM on November 17

Supreme Court Refuses to Take Redskins Case

I find it interesting because I think it says something about the false paternalism so often involved in these sorts of issues.

If it says something, then come out and say it directly. I don't see anything paternal about the desire to stop treating Native Americans as a stereotype for degrading sports mascots. It's simple respect.

As for past discussions here, see Native Americans Ask Supreme Court to Sack Redskins Trademark for the last time the issue came up and was discussed at great length.

posted by rcade at 01:29 PM on November 17

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

I think we will just have to disagree that it's "less relevant" to consider how all NFL teams fared in those circumstances when evaluating Belichick's decision. Your original position that "[i]n this particular situation, 99.9% of the time it makes sense to punt" wasn't qualified -- it covered all teams -- and most of the criticism of Belichick asserts that he was wrong as a general rule.

The league-wide stats do not appear to bear this out, much to my surprise. You can argue the specifics of his decision, but in the general case, the numbers show that a coach who punts in that situation has lowered his chance of winning.

posted by rcade at 11:04 AM on November 17

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

New York Jets coach Rex Ryan's postgame speech to his players Sunday was so inspirational he brought himself to tears.

posted by rcade at 10:23 AM on November 17

Supreme Court Refuses to Take Redskins Case

Maybe you should spend a little time learning about an issue before you deride it as "PC bullshit." The term "Redskins" is not an honorific -- it is a racial insult comparable to nigger or sambo. Would it be PC bullshit to take issue with a team that called itself the Sambos?

posted by rcade at 08:36 AM on November 17

Titans Owner Bud Adams Flips Off the Bills

I read somewhere that Goodell was meeting folks elsewhere at the time Adams flew the birds and did not see it.

posted by rcade at 08:05 AM on November 17

SportsFilter: The Tuesday Huddle

Did anyone else catch the last minutes of the Browns-Ravens game on Monday Night Football? As the great Jon Gruden and the two non-Grudens were wrapping up the broadcast with talk of whether Brady Quinn was the answer at quarterback for the Browns, Quinn threw two of the worst long passes I've ever seen. They landed so far out of bounds they were beyond the thick white stripe surrounding the field, a fact noted by the broadcasters.

If that's his audition for the job, he'll be lucky to get a clipboard holding job somewhere next season.

posted by rcade at 07:14 AM on November 17

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

I stand corrected about Tony Romo speaking critically about the offense after that game, but now that I've read the comments, it's interesting that he got slammed for them. The biggest knock on Romo has been that he's too easygoing, shrugs off losses too easily and should speak up and take a leadership role.

What would people rather hear -- the guy talking in the offseason about problems that need to be fixed, when they can be addressed, or what he told a Wisconsin newspaper a month later: "If I'm never going to win the Super Bowl, I'll be content in life"?

You keep making an issue of the fact that I'm a Cowboys fan. I am, and I've seen and read Romo's post-game interviews numerous times. So I can tell you that he's self-critical about his own play, to a fault, and doesn't take shots at others. How many times did T.O. try to bait him into a public spat and he shrugged it off?

posted by rcade at 07:08 AM on November 17

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

rcade, my point was this, since the statisical data that you cite is not tied to analysis of Pats/Colts games, it has a certain degree of error built into it.

The Pats and Colts don't play each other often enough to get the kind of statistical data we're talking about. How many times have they gone for it on fourth and 2 against each other? How many times have they given the other team a chance to win with a drive that began near the red zone? That's not statistics, it's anecdotes.

Belichick is getting hammered for making the wrong move. Jon Gruden on MNF last night was one of the only big names I heard who was unequivocal in his defense of the decision.

All around the league, people are saying that Belichick went against the odds without providing any statistics to back that up.

But if the decision is about playing the percentages, a leaguewide statistical analysis of that situation is relevant -- more, I think, than the gut call. We all know the gut call is to punt. That's what coaches have been doing forever.

posted by rcade at 06:51 AM on November 17

Titans Owner Bud Adams Flips Off the Bills

Oops ... I got my number from the preseason game.

posted by rcade at 06:45 AM on November 17

Titans Owner Bud Adams Flips Off the Bills

Titans-Bills attendance: 22,153.

posted by rcade at 08:48 PM on November 16

What's Wrong with Brock Lesnar?

I wonder if he has Crohn's disease, an inflammatory intestinal disorder that nearly ended the career of Jaguars quarterback David Garrard.

posted by rcade at 08:26 PM on November 16

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle

Allen Iverson and the Grizzlies have parted ways. From the link: "Memphis fans greeted the biggest star ever to play for the Grizzlies with a big crowd for his introductory news conference and eagerly bought up his No. 3 jersey, though he wound up never playing a game on the team's home court." Ouch.

posted by rcade at 08:18 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

You don't know what you're talking about. Romo didn't trash the coaches or play calling after that 44-6 loss last year, and I can't recall ever hearing him do it. You've said that a few times here, but absent a source, I think it's BS. If Romo had criticized the playcalling in a game the Cowboys lost by 38 points, it would have been widely ridiculed.

posted by rcade at 08:08 PM on November 16

Titans Owner Bud Adams Flips Off the Bills

Adams looks like an idiot doing that. Larry Johnson got drummed out of Kansas City for calling a couple people fags and insulting his coach. Isn't Adams' display of juvenile behavior -- which was in sight of hundreds, including kids -- worse?

posted by rcade at 06:13 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

When has Tony Romo ever refused to shoulder responsibility in a loss?

posted by rcade at 04:59 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

I got carried away reading your Monty Hall link and didn't check the second one, then found it myself in Google.

posted by rcade at 04:05 PM on November 16

What's Wrong with Brock Lesnar?

The people spreading that rumor are geniuses. Fighters wear cups. They wouldn't know Lesnar was excited unless he told them.

posted by rcade at 04:03 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

No way to prove it, so it comes down to gut decision.

That's one way of thinking about things like this, and it will always be used as a rationalization by people who favor gut checks instead of looking at the numbers.

But if the question we're asking here is whether Belichick was playing the percentages correctly, the more data considered, the more likely it will be right.

The reason coaches punt on 4th-and-2 at their own end with time running out is that they believe the percentages are in their favor. Belichick's actions raise a good question -- what if coaches are wrong about that? We've seen a lot of recent examples in sport where number-crunchers succeed by challenging conventional wisdom. Particularly in baseball.

posted by rcade at 03:56 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

My earlier attempt to grok the percentages here was too simple, as Yerfatma suggested. You can't just compare the Pats chance to convert vs. the Colts chance to get a TD. A site called Advanced NFL Stats offers this breakdown of why Belichick was right:

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount.

Looking at this, I'm beginning to think that Malcolm Gladwell would have gone for it.

posted by rcade at 03:38 PM on November 16

Supreme Court Refuses to Take Redskins Case

I wonder what would happen if a new party sought a Redskins trademark for a category of commerce that has nothing to do with football.

posted by rcade at 03:24 PM on November 16

Supreme Court Refuses to Take Redskins Case

A registered trademark is a government-granted monopoly to use a term in commerce. Since it is illegal under U.S. law to grant a trademark to a racial pejorative, and many trademark seekers have been denied on those grounds, I think a lawsuit is the right way to fight it. There's no inherent right here that's violated by taking the Redskins mark away from them. Trademarks are a privilege.

posted by rcade at 02:33 PM on November 16

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle

Are you sure, JButton? If Sanchez is resorting to that tactic after nine games in the NFL, it sounds like he's not handling the New York media. Showing them fear is like chum to sharks.

posted by rcade at 02:14 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

This game certainly lends support to conventional wisdom but how many late game drives for touchdowns are there on a weekly basis when the conventional strategy fails and we just don't notice because it's the norm?

Surely TMQ will be all over this decision tomorrow. Any predictions on what he'll say?

posted by rcade at 01:06 PM on November 16

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle

Bperk: I wondered about that too, but Josh Scobee is a good kicker who has only missed from under 30 yards once in his six-year NFL career.

Since today is all about the odds, the odds of him missing the kick were 3 percent (41 made, 42 attempted). Surely the odds of the Jets scoring a touchdown were higher than that.

posted by rcade at 01:05 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

So Belichick either wins the game with the fourth-down conversion or he's a daring mastermind who bucked conventional wisdom. Bah humbug. If Eric Mangini makes that same decision the response would be merciless.

posted by rcade at 12:37 PM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

You've got that turned around, I think.

Maybe I'm explaining it poorly, but I don't think so. If the Pats had a 70 percent chance of converting on 4th-and-2, that's only a smart play if Peyton Manning had a less than 70 percent chance of scoring from their 28.

I don't think the number crunching gives a clear answer that Belichick was right to go for it. Most coaches would never do that in the same situation. I think most coaches are right, and the outcome of this game lends support to that position.

posted by rcade at 11:53 AM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

Belichick's call was almost certainly the correct one. 70% of the time, teams will convert 4th and 2. If they convert, they win. Puntthe ball back to the Colts, and you have a smaller chance of winning.

That's only true if Peyton Manning fails to lead his team to a touchdown more than 30 percent of the time inside the opponents 30 with around two minutes left.

The Colts over the last five seasons have scored touchdowns 60 percent of the time in the red zone and scored at least a field goal 72 percent of the time. They have the second-best red zone efficiency in the league over that span.

Given the circumstances in which it took a TD to win, I think it's easily possible that the Colts had more than a 70 percent chance to score one in that situation.

posted by rcade at 10:48 AM on November 16

SportsFilter: The Monday Huddle

Maurice Jones-Drew did something epic in the 24-22 win over the New York Jets Sunday. With under two minutes left and the Jacksonville Jaguars at the 14 and driving for a go-ahead score, the Jets decided to let the Jags score a touchdown so they had time to attempt a come back. Jones-Drew takes the ball, runs towards the end zone as the defenders comically find ways not to tackle him, and he takes a knee at the 1. Video.

"Coach said take a knee, so sorry to my fantasy owners, I apologize," Jones-Drew said. "I had myself today, too, so it was a tough call, but whatever it takes to get the victory."

Jones-Drew isn't kidding about having himself on his own fantasy team. He said in a local interview earlier this year that the owners in his league draft him because they know he'll give up anything in trade to get himself.

Also, hearing Dick Enberg call that game was a treat. He's been doing NFL games since 1975 and doesn't appear to have lost anything over that span.

posted by rcade at 10:37 AM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

I didn't watch the end of the game -- I listened while I was falling asleep -- but it seems like an extremely dumb decision to me. You can't give a Hall of Fame quarterback two minutes and a short field to beat you.

posted by rcade at 10:23 AM on November 16

At lon last, Michelle Wie gets 1st LPGA tour win

Good for Wie. It's hard to believe that she's only 20. She got into the game so young that it seems like this is a comeback for a washed-up athlete. Weird.

posted by rcade at 09:32 AM on November 16

Belichick Call Questioned in Pats' Loss to Colts

Barry Switzer's failed fourth-down call was widely described as the end of the Cowboys' season that year. He called the same Emmitt Smith running play three straight times in a game against Philly. The Eagles held and won the game, and I vividly recall local sportsradio icon Norm Hitzges declaring that the team's chances for another Super Bowl were over. They rallied together and went on to beat the Steelers in the bowl for Switzer's only ring.

posted by rcade at 09:28 AM on November 16

Tarkenton doesn't-like these newfangled quarterbacks

There's a difference between being elusive and having happy feet. Fran Tarkenton is a nine-time Pro Bowler, 1975 league MVP and Hall of Fame inductee who threw for 47,000 yards and reached three Super Bowls. The "deer and the headlights" and "flag football" digs are wholly undeserved.

posted by rcade at 07:58 AM on November 16

LeBron James: Honor Jordan By Giving Up No. 23

I'm just responding to the premise that you can't develop strong respect for players you never saw play, not suggesting that James hasn't been respectful enough.

posted by rcade at 11:23 AM on November 15

Tarkenton doesn't-like these newfangled quarterbacks

I don't know what Doug Farrar's problem with Fran Tarkenton is, aside from cracks about Tarkenton being old and crotchety. Cutler is playing terrible football and Favre was disloyal to the Packers. Why shouldn't Tarkenton speak his mind?

posted by rcade at 11:21 AM on November 15

LeBron James: Honor Jordan By Giving Up No. 23

We're not talking centuries here, Dfleming. Babe Ruth last played 74 years ago, so there are still some people around who could have seen him play and had an understanding of what he meant to the game. There also are many more people in their 50s, 60s and 70s who were close to the era in which he played, so they could have a pretty strong idea of what he meant to the game in the time he played it -- based on firsthand accounts by people they knew.

LeBron James is surrounded by people in the NBA who saw Russell and Dr. J play, played with or against them, and coached them. If he is attentive and mindful of the history of the game, he'd have ample opportunity to develop respect for them.

Does that substitute for direct personal experience? No. But historical perspective is important, too.

posted by rcade at 11:20 PM on November 14

LeBron James: Honor Jordan By Giving Up No. 23

I don't think it's an empty gesture at all. But after Michael Jordan's ridiculous Hall of Fame speech, I think he's had enough major honors for a while. If the league wants to honor former players, there are in fact other players who contributed to the league.

posted by rcade at 12:48 PM on November 13