September 27, 2007

What's the NL Scenario? : According to Baseball Prospectus, there's only a 1-in-3 chance that a team will win the NL wildcard outright. There's a 1-in-20 chance of a four-way tie. A five-way tie is still possible. Worst (or best) case scenario, tiebreaker games could take until Thursday.

read story | posted by SummersEve to Baseball at 2:49 PM CDT (22 comments total)

I've been checking that BP page every morning the last few weeks. I'm just waiting for the day when their computer just spits out "42". Here are the scenarios from MLB, but that ESPN link explains them better.

The MLB link does point out a bit of drama in the AL: The team with the best winning percentage in the league gets the option of starting its first-round series on Wednesday or Thursday. The teams that start Wednesday get an extra day off, thereby ensuring that each team's top two starters will be available twice.

posted by SummersEve at 3:02 PM CDT on September 27

Wow. Just wow.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 3:45 PM CDT on September 27

These scenarios at MLB don't even take into account that Atlanta is "mathematically alive". What a kick to the crotch for the Bravos.

posted by Ricardo at 3:58 PM CDT on September 27

I'm not sure if this helps the Cubs' chances at all. But it's funny.

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 5:39 PM CDT on September 27

Looks like the Cubs will back in due to the Brewers' inability to win a game the past few nights when the Cubs lost. I don't seen the Brew Crew making up a two game deficit over three days, even against the Cubs. Then again, stranger things have happened.

Sadly, the five way tie scenario is out.

posted by holden at 7:19 AM CDT on September 28

Game I'm parking my XM on tonight: Rockies/Dbacks. 17-game winner Brandon Webb takes on 17-game winner Jeff Francis. Francis is 7-1 lifetime against the Dbacks; this season, in two starts, he is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Webb has faced the Rockies five times this season without a win and hasn't allowed fewer than 4 runs in any of those starts.

I might flip over from time-to-time to the Padres/Brewers game, mostly because Greg Maddux told me I should.

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 8:46 AM CDT on September 28

Let me tell you who I want to win and who will win. I have just listed the teams that I think will win, with those I'm rooting for in paratheses. If there is no paranthesis, then my team's gonna win.

East- Phillies
Central- Cubs
West- D'Backs(Padres, believe me the D'Backs are a heavy Cinderella)
Wild Card- Padres (Rockies, they would make a good Cinderella like the Tigers)

Outside the Mets and Padres, any NL team in the playoffs is a Cinderella, my friends.

posted by SFValley_Dude at 11:25 AM CDT on September 28

I might flip over from time-to-time to the Padres/Brewers game, mostly because Greg Maddux told me I should.

That wasn't Greg Maddux, it was a dead hobo dressed in a Greg Maddux uniform that The Whoreslayer had rigged out to be a life-sized marionette.

The only sad thing to me is that on account of the Rockies (at 87 wins) and D'Backs (at 89 wins) playing one another, it's an impossibility that no National League team finishes with 90 wins.

posted by holden at 1:02 PM CDT on September 28

Dude, you just said GM three times in the same post. You're so in trouble.

This graph is neat.

posted by SummersEve at 1:58 PM CDT on September 28

This graph is neat.

Unless you're a Mets fan. Brutal...

posted by Venicemenace at 2:55 PM CDT on September 28

Ugh, my stomach is all in knots right now. The Cubs get swept by the Marlins, so they're still only 2 games up on the Brewers. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Cubs drop 2 games this weekend and the Brewers win 2. The Brewers have the tie-breaker over the Cubs. AAAAAUUUUUUUGGGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

posted by NoMich at 3:06 PM CDT on September 28

This graph is neat.

The Washington Nationals line in that graph reminds me of my performance in a recent paper airplane competition. This one is pretty cool, too. And I can't stop staring at this one.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Cubs drop 2 games this weekend and the Brewers win 2.

No worries, NoMich. If the Cubs lose two out of three and the Brewers win two out of three, the Cubs still win (it's only a one game swing). The only bad scenarios for you are if the Cubs get swept by the Reds and the Brewers win 2 out of 3 from the Padres, or the Cubs only take one and the Brewers sweep. Given the relative talent level and positioning of the opponents of each team, I think things are looking good for the Cubbies. Not to jinx it or anything.

Along with the poor Brewers, I'm not too excited about being a fan of the Mets or the Diamondbacks this weekend. They have the most to lose. The Mets look especially tight.

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 3:24 PM CDT on September 28

Those graphs are really cool, Crafty. And thanks for the math/statistics lesson. Whenever numbers are thrown my way, my eyes tend to glaze over (much like the typical person after asking Mr. Norrell a simple question about English magic). Though, your scenarios are not making me rest any easier; they are still well within the realm of possibility (jinxes or no).
What's eve nmore aggravating is that I can't get that damn Cubs victory song out of my head.
Go, Cubs, go
Go, Cubs, go
Hey, Chicago, what do you say
The Cubs are gonna win today
Go, Cubs, go
Go, Cubs, go

(I love this time of year. Baseball playoffs are gearing up, football season is in full swing, hockey is starting up.)

posted by NoMich at 3:40 PM CDT on September 28

And thanks for the math/statistics lesson.

I had to look it up. Whenever I am asked a math question, my reply invariably concludes with the phrase "in the Iraq and everywhere such as."

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 3:56 PM CDT on September 28

What's even more aggravating is that I can't get that damn Cubs victory song out of my head.

That Cubs victory song is absolutely awful. And this is not just the sour grapes of a Cardinals fan (a team that has only won 10 World Series since the Cubs last won one). It is an awful, awful song. No offense intended towards the late Steve Goodman, but it's just awful. Did I mention it's awful?

And it's insulting to the intelligence that this song is written in the wrong tense to be sung after a victory. It should be sung before the game. Of course, the "Get a brain! Morans" guy was apparently a Cardinals fan, so it's not like I'm coming from a position of moral authority here.

For those drawn to these things like train wrecks, here's the song in question (video -- set to a Cubs photo slide show). Don't say I didn't warn you.

posted by holden at 4:14 PM CDT on September 28

Well would ya look at that? The Cubs won and the Brewers lost tonight, so the division belongs to the Cubs. CUBS WHOO! CUBS WHOO! Cue Steve Goodman.

posted by NoMich at 10:09 PM CDT on September 28

The Brewers have the tie-breaker over the Cubs.

There is no "tie-breaker" when it comes to the division if the loser doesn't have a chance for the wild card.

Since neither the Cubs nor the Brewers could win the wild-card this weekend, if they end up tied at the end of the season, they have to play a one-game playoff to determine the division winner.

The only reason Boston/NYY didn't have to do that in 2005 is that even if the team didn't win the division they got the wild card, so that's when the tie-breakers were applied (head-to-head record).

posted by grum@work at 10:12 PM CDT on September 28

Ah, I see. Thanks grum. As always, you are a font of useful knowledge.
Baseball threads are always a must-read thanks to you and Crafty.

posted by NoMich at 10:23 PM CDT on September 28

For those drawn to these things like train wrecks, here's the song in question

Listening to this makes me want to clean my ears out with bleach...or a Randy Newman tune.

posted by grum@work at 11:51 PM CDT on September 28

Well, the Sox and Cubs have won a pennant. Go Cubs! Go Chicago! Go Red Sox Nation! The D'backs will win the West now. The Padres and Cinderella Phils will be in too.

posted by SFValley_Dude at 11:59 PM CDT on September 28

Well folks, for those people that want the season to never end (or, at least, end in crazy excitement), you've got your wish.

Going into Sunday afternoon's games, the standings are:

NL East
Philadelphia 88-73
New York (N) 88-73

NL West
Arizona 90-71
San Diego 89-72
Colorado 88-73

If Philadelphia, Colorado and New York win, and San Diego loses, then we get the glorious 2-way tie for the NL East title AND 4-way tie for the wild card.

If that happens, and Colorado decides that winning one game on the road is easier than winning two games at home:

Sunday night:
- Mets fly down to Philadelphia after their game against Marlins.
- Phillies relaxes at home after their game against Nationals.
- Padres stays in Milwaukee that night after their game against the Brewers.
- Rockies relax in Arizona after their game against the Diamondbacks, waiting to see what happens on...

Monday afternoon:
- Phillies host Mets. The winner of this game is the NL East division champion, and makes the playoffs.
- The loser is then inserted into the 3-way Wild Card tournament.

Monday night:
Case A: Phillies beat Mets
- Mets fly from Philadelphia to San Diego.
- Padres fly from Milwaukee to San Diego.
- Rockies continue to cool their heels in Arizona.
Case B: Mets beat Phillies
- Mets stay in Philadelphia, still unsure who they play in the first round of the playoffs.
- Phillies stay in Philadelphia.
- Padres flies out to Philadelphia.
- Rockies continue to cool their heels in Arizona.

Tuesday afternoon:
Case A: Mets play Padres in San Diego
Case B: Padres play Phillies in Philadelphia

Tuesday night:
Case A1: Mets beat Padres
- Mets fly all the way back to New York.
- Rockies hop on a plane and fly to New York.
Case A2: Padres beat Mets
- Padres relax in San Diego.
- Mets go home and are done for the season.
- Rockies immediately fly to San Diego.
Case B1: Padres beat Phillies
- Padres fly home to San Diego.
- Phillies stay in Philadelphia and are done for the season.
- Rockies immediately fly to San Diego.
Case B2: Phillies beat Padres
- Padres fly home to San Diego and are done for the season.
- Rockies immediately fly to Philadelphia

Wednesday afternoon:
Case A1: Rockies play Mets in New York
Case A2: Rockies play Padres in San Diego
Case B1: Rockies play Padres in San Diego
Case B2: Rockies play Phillies in Philadelphia

Wednesday night:
Case A1-A: Rockies beat Mets
- Rockies get the Wild Card and fly to Philadelphia.
- Mets are done for the season.
- Cubs fly to Arizona.
Case A1-B: Mets beat Rockies
- Mets get the Wild Card and fly to Arizona.
- Rockies are done for the season and fly to Colorado.
- Cubs fly to Philadelphia.
Case A2-A: Rockies beat Padres
- Rockies get the Wild Card and fly to Philadelphia.
- Padres are done for the season.
- Cubs fly to Arizona.
Case A2-B: Padres beat the Rockies
- Padres get the Wild Card and fly to New York.
- Rockies are done for the season and fly to Colorado.
- Cubs fly to Arizona.
Case B1-A: Rockies beat the Padres
- Rockies get the Wild Card and fly to New York.
- Padres are done for the season.
- Cubs fly to Arizona.
Case B1-B: Padres beat the Rockies
- Padres get the Wild Card and fly to Philadelphia.
- Rockies are done for the season and fly to Colorado.
- Cubs fly to Arizona.
Case B2-A: Rockies beat the Phillies
- Rockies get the Wild Card and fly to New York.
- Phillies are done for the season.
- Cubs fly to Arizona.
Case B2-B: Phillies beat the Rockies
- Phillies get the Wild Card and fly to Arizona.
- Rockies are done for the seaon and fly to Colorado
- Cubs fly to New York.

Thursday afternoon:
- Every goddamn team tries to recover from jet lag.

Thursday night:
- Both National League Division Series games are to be played (one in Arizona, the other in either Philadelphia or New York).

That should be pretty easy to follow, right?

Now imagine you are the traveling secretaries for these teams, and you need to book transportation, hotel rooms and meals...

posted by grum@work at 1:01 AM CDT on September 30

In one of those scenarios, the Mets
- play a baseball game on Sunday afternoon (against the Marlins)
- fly from New York to Philadelphia on Sunday night
- play a baseball game on Monday afternoon (against the Phillies)
- fly from Philadelphia to San Diego on Monday night
- play a baseball game on Tuesday afternoon (against the Padres)
- fly from San Diego to New York on Tuesday night
- play a baseball game on Wednesday afternoon (against the Rockies)
- fly from New York to Arizona on Wednesday night
- play a baseball game on Thursday night (against the Diamondbacks)

That's 5 games, against 5 teams, in 4 different cities (but one city repeated twice, but not consecutively), in 5 days.

posted by grum@work at 1:15 AM CDT on September 30

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